The World Hurdle is regarded as the feature race of Day 3 of the Festival. Some top quality horses have won this race in years gone by and non more so than Inglis Drever who sadly wont be in the line-up bidding to win a fourth World Hurdle, I don’t think it’ll be quite the same without the gallant stayer thundering up the hill to the roars of many but we can only look forward to another and its down to something else to reign supreme over the distance.

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in. This year I have singled the race down to the following participants;

Kasbah Bliss
Punchestowns
Fair Along
Big Buck’s

The horses above are the four I think will be fighting it out at the business end of the race, and I’m now going to expand on what my choice will be and why, but first it’s time to go through the form of the horses shortlisted.

Kasbah Bliss
7-y-o gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Marital Bliss (FR) (Double Bed (FR) (13.6f))
Notes: Most notably a gallant performance here last year behind Inglis Drever and some would argue he should really have won with a better jockey on board. The Kahyasi gelding has done nothing but improve over the summer and after hacking up in a handicap, he then won the Prix Gladiateur (G3) at Longchamp clocking a rating of (96) in the process before a fantastic effort when fourth beaten little over a length in the Prix Du Cadran (G1). Rested since Francois Doumen has hinted his gelding has added more muscle to his small but powerhouse frame and has grown into his shape a lot more, he believes he’s the finished article this time round, and there’s no Inglis Drever around to stop him.

Punchestowns
6-y-o gelding
Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA))

Notes: A well regarded individual from the Seven Barrows team who came to England with a lofty reputation and did the business at Sandown first time up over hurdles. Punchestowns was rumoured to be going chasing this year and his first run of the season was a pipe-opener for his intended career over larger obstacles, however he decided to hose in off 139 in what looked a competitive race on paper, not contempt with that he proceeded to destroy decent opposition en-route to an 11-length success in the Long Walk Hurdle (G1) at Ascot. Heavy ground can be blamed for his defeat to Big Buck’s last time, as can the pull of 8lbs Big Buck’s was getting from Nicky Henderson’s likeable chestnut. Punchestowns looks set to play a major role in the World Hurdle and with the ground likely to be better than the Heavy he contested the Cleeve Hurdle in, he can reverse form with Big Buck’s but whether he’ll be good enough to defeat Kasbah Bliss remains a mystery.

Fair Along
7-y-o gelding

Alkalde (GER) (11.0f) — Fairy Tango (FR) (Acatenango (GER) (11.0f))

Notes: A gallant and sound inmate from the Phillip Hobbs yard, Fair Along is the sort of horse you’d love to have as an owner, a small horse with a massive heart. Fair Along has won over 16f and he’s won over 25f (2M and 3M1F for those not clear on the furlong per mile ratio). A winner of top decent handicap prizes at the course he put a sterling effort in to finish third behind both Punchestowns and Big Buck’s when last seen in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The heavy ground quite possibly didn’t do him any favours that day and he held every chance turning for home. When headed he battled on bravely to hold third and there’s a chance he could be better suited to better ground come the Festival. His Cheltenham form reads: 132302113 and is very much a course specialist. He holds every chance of making the frame in the World Hurdle and is worth close consideration.

Big Buck’s
6-y-o gelding

Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f))
Notes: A French import and expensive purchase, Big Buck’s came over with a big reputation and a big future in the game. The workmanlike gelding has done well over fences for Paul Nicholls and arguably would have gone very close in the Hennessy Gold Cup but for falling when closing down. Big Buck’s did the business over hurdles next time and that run had to be a confidence boosting as his jumping is renowned to be a little chancy. Winning so well like he did Paul Nicholls gave his charge another chance over the smaller obstacles and made the most of an 8lb pull in the weights with Punchestowns to secure an impressive victory in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The son of Cadoudal also showed a liking for heavy ground and conditions couldn’t not be as favourable to him come Festival time and although he holds massive claims, he’d be one I wont back from the list above.

Verdict:

After going through the form and looking at the above I’m going to side with KASBAH BLISS who has the benefit of a break after three very pleasing efforts on the flat. A repeat of any of those last two efforts is good enough to see him win at Cheltenham and Francois Doumen is the master at producing his festival hopefuls to peak performance and he can follow in the footsteps of the legend Baracouda and secure another victory for France.

3pts win – Kasbah Bliss

Paddy Power are offering 5/2.

Popularity: 14% [?]

The Champion Bumper is regarded as one of the big gambling races of the Festival. Typical for a good Irish gamble, and on most cases landed. Some classy horses have won this in the past.

Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in this race, and always primes a decent string for the event. Anything he sends over for this race is worth checking out before placing a bet on the event.

Year Winner Jockey Trainer Age
2007 Cork All Star Barry Geraghty Jessica Harrington 5yo
2006 Hairy Molly Paul Carberry Joseph Crowley 6yo
2005 Missed That Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 6yo
2004 Total Enjoyment Jim Culloty Tommy Cooper 5yo
2003 Liberman Tony McCoy Martin Pipe 5yo
2002 Pizarro Jamie Spencer Edward O’Grady 5yo
2000 Joe Cullen Charlie Swan Willie Mullins 5yo
1999 Monsignor Brendan Powell Mark Pitman 5yo
1998 Alexander Banquet Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 5yo

Key Trends:
* Willie Mullins has saddled 5 out of the last 12 winners of the race (41.67%)
* 12 of the last 15 winners of the race were Irish Trained (80%)
* 7 of the last 9 winners of the race were five-year-olds (77.77%)
* 13 of the last 15 winners had all won their previous race (86.67%)

Now that’s the stats looked at, and basically we’d do a lot worse than to look for a Willie Mullins trained five-year-old.

A good few words floating round for this Zaarito and has been well backed to do the business, however I cant have Colm Murphy’s horse, and think it’s best to look elsewhere.

My Shortlist:

APT APPROACH 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Criteria: ****
Well regarded sort of Willie Mullins who created a favourable impression when landing a bumper at Gowran Park on his first start. He cleared away in good fashion and from what I could see, possessed a decent turn of foot to boot. The cat looks already out of the bag in terms to his price for the race but it must be noted he did drift in the betting for his debut run, and in such an open affair, I think it’s better looking for a value price for a small bet.

COUSIN VINNY 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Criteria: ****
A horse which really impressed me when showing an explosive turn of foot when his chances looked slim of making a winning debut. Held up off a slow pace, he slowly got into contention and despite running very green when asked to pick up, eventually got the hang of things and rocketed home. At the current prices he looks my most likely selection, with the expected improvement and that turn of foot really could do the business up that Cheltenham hill.

THE OLD PRETENDER 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Carl Llewellyn
Criteria: *
Really impressed me when making a winning debut at Huntingdon when stringing out a weak field. Found wanting last time behind the Nicky Henderson trained Mad Max (Reportedly 10L better than Gold Award at home), but I’d be looking to give this nice strapping horse another chance as he’s surely better than what we saw at Newbury last time.

BIG EARED FRAN 5-y-o b g
Trainer: David Pipe
Criteria: *
Formerly trained by Tor Sturgis who’s said in the press this is the best horse she’s trained, and was quickly snapped up by Thomas Barr and moved to David Pipe after making an impressive winning debut at Sandown in November. The Pipe’s know how to ready one for this race having won this with Liberman in 2003, and should be watched for market support.

The Duke’s Selection:
Cousin Vinny
Each-way @ 16/1

Popularity: 7% [?]