But it’s not just equine feats of the Gold Cup that have gone down in racing history; in 1983, Michael Dickinson trainer the first five home, a truly unbelievable achievement.

Open to horses 5 years of age and upwards, run over three miles and two and a half furlongs (roughly) and worth £475,000, the pace of the race is often more equivalent to a two and half mile contest, placing a greater emphasis on stamina. Yet horses must have the speed to stay in contention and be able to jump at said pace, making it the ultimate challenge. With that in mind, let’s take a look through the main contenders of this year’s field.

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

Since 1969, no horse older than 10 has emerged victorious.

15 of the last 16 winners were aged between 7 and 9.

8 of the last 9 winners went into the race with a rating higher than 165.

10 of the last 12 winners had previously placed at the festival.

20 of the last 22 winners finished in the top four of their previous outing.

It’s quite difficult for me to write this year’s Gold Cup preview. I have always been a huge flat racing fan and for quite a while, I had no interest in the NH side of the game at all. The horse responsible for changing that was Exotic Dancer, still the only jumps horse I have really taken to heart. Having supported him, sometimes heart ruling head, in every race he ran in, it feels very odd looking at the Gold Cup field this year knowing he won’t be my automatic selection, and his tragic absence is a loss to this years field.

That said, this years renewal is a heavyweight clash of the highest order, between the two Paul Nicholls trained Gold Cup winners, Kauto Star and Denman. The duo will be joined by last years RSA Chase conqueror, and last years RyanAir Chase winner along side a former RyanAir Chase victor, and the horse successful in this years Lexus Chase, the later two, hoping to give trainer Nicholls a possible first four home.

Kauto Star
10-y-o Gelding
Village Star (FR) – Kauto Relka (FR) (Port Etienne (FR)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: Winner in ’07, and after defeat to Denman in ’08 when not at his best, he regained his crown last year in truly awesome style. Started this season with the narrowest of victories in the Betfair Chase, where coming out on top in a photo finish against Imperial Commander before putting up probably his best performance yet when winning his fourth King George at Kempton by an absolute country mile. Victorious at two miles, all the way up to this trip, that awesome King George demolition job franked the view that many believe; that he is the best chaser ever. Though I would still have to side with Arkle on that front, there is no doubt a third Gold Cup beckons and I fully expect him to achieve it.

Denman
10-y-o Gelding
Presenting (UK) – Polly Puttens (UK) (Pollerton (UK)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: ‘The Tank’ won 12 of his first 13 starts for Nicholls to set up the first Gold Cup duel with Kauto Star in ’08, including a facile RSA win and an outstanding top weight performance in the Hennessey. Went on to run his opposition ragged in the Gold Cup under Sam Thomas, though a serious heart condition followed and there were doubts if he would be able to return the same animal. Defeat to Madison Du Berlais in the Levy Board Chase on his long awaited return, was followed by a solid second place finish to Kauto Star in last years Gold Cup. Things went from bad to worse as he then crashed out horribly two from home in the Totesport Bowl at Aintree, but fears were averted as he wasn’t as seriously injured as first thought. Returning this season, in the Hennessey, the old Denman was well and truly back. He smashed his opposition to pieces in one of the greatest weight carrying performances in history. However, with Sam Thomas no longer a considered partner, and his Hennessey jockey due to partner Kauto in the big one, McCoy took the ride on Denman in the Aon Chase, a preparation for their partnership in the Gold Cup. It did not go well. Denman went from traveling strongly, to looking tired, and blundered badly four from home before crashing out at the next. His odds have risen markedly since and although he and McCoy will do a lot of schooling to try and strengthen their partnership, questions remain both about the horse, his jumping and if A P McCoy’s style of riding is suited to him.

Cooldine
8-y-o Gelding
Beneficial (UK) – Shean Alainn (IRE) (Le Moss (UK)
Willie Mullins
Notes: Smart hurdler who looked just as good when sent chasing, beating Forpaddytheplasterer in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown before powering clear in the RSA Chase, at last years Festival. Left some smart horses in his wake that day, but likely still feeling the effects of that effort when a well beaten fourth in the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown six weeks later. Went off a well backed favourite in the Lexus Chase on his seasonal return but was never sighted and pulled up some way from home. Reportedly suffering from an infection and in need of the run, that performance best written off. He then ran in the Irish Hennessey, but despite being out battled close home by Joncol, he put in a much more hopeful performance. I’ve never been a big fan of this horse and I just can’t see him getting remotely close to the front two, if on their game, nor do I think he has a clear chance of squeaking third so at the prices, I’ll well and truly dismiss him.

Imperial Commander
9-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA) – Ballinlovane (IRE) (Le Moss (IRE)
Nigel Twiston- Davies
Notes: Five wins from nine runs round Cheltenham, the latest a success in last years RyanAir Chase, but followed that by being pulled up in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Stamina was doubted at this trip, but put those doubts to bed when a somewhat unlucky second to Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at the start of the season (unlucky in the sense that it looked at the time like he had at the very least, not lost, if not won outright). However a shocking jump at the second in the King George put pay to his chances, if he ever actually had any with Kauto at his awesome best, and although he did well enough to plug on for fifth, I don’t see him getting anywhere as near to Kauto Star as he did at Haydock, even with a clear round.

Taranis
9-y-o Gelding
Mansonnien (FR) – Vikosa (FR) (Nikos (UK)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: Smart chaser victorious here in ’07 when winning the RyanAir Chase. Three wins and one placed effort from five runs at Cheltenham, including his comeback win here in January after just over two years absent due to a serious leg injury. Bounce factor a possible concern but he appeals at the prices for an each way nibble.

Taranis has suffered a setback and has been ruled out of the race – 03.03.2010

What A Friend
7-y-o Gelding
Alflora (IRE) – Friendly Lady (UK) (New Member (UK)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: Looked a promising horse last year and ran a solid sixth behind Cooldine in the RSA Chase. Looked at one point like he was coming to win the Hennessey but found Denman too strong, before holding off the fast finishing Money Trix in the rearranged Lexus Chase. Joncol, the third that day franked the form since, though Money Trix disappointed in the same race and the discrepancy in odds available for him, 14/1 right up to 40/1, show his chances of participation are in doubt. Although the top end of those odds are interesting with NRMB, I prefer one or two others for the each way angle.

Others
Tricky Trickster won the Challenge Cup at last years Festival and having moved to Paul Nicholls since, has headed the betting market for the Grand National. Got up in the dying strides to beat Niche Market after Denman’s fall in the Aon Chase but likely to have a more realistic challenge awaiting him in April.

Carruthers is a decent enough chaser but has always looked a grade shy of the top level and will do well to make the front six positions, while Madison Du Berlais has yet to recapture the form that saw him win three times last season and has failed to run anywhere near his best in seven previous attempts at Cheltenham, should he even turn up.

Verdict
With Denman and Kauto Star both at one win a piece against each other, both have, to some degree, had valid health or fitness excuses when defeated in their head to heads here. This year, the hope was that both would turn up, ready to rock, excuse free, and go to war with the best horse triumphant. However, after the Aon Chase, I’m not sure that will be the case, and I am sure, Denmaniacs will insist not, should their horse lose.

Though arguably since the Aon, Denman has now become the value of the race, I wouldn’t have sided with him prior to his spill last time out, and with the additional question marks arising, I am even more confident KAUTO STAR will land his third Gold Cup.

With a view to an each way bet, and with possibly the second and third spots available should Denman’s jumping errors continue, though I don’t expect they will, I shall side with Taranis. He returned in style from a long lay off and in doing so bolstered his good record round Cheltenham. At more than double the odds of both Cooldine and Imperial Commander, I think he is the better bet, as, for me, the two mentioned aren’t twice as likely to finish ahead of him, when credentials are compared and considered.

5 pt win – Kauto Star @ 4/5 with William Hill
0.5pt e/w – Taranis @ 33/1 with William Hill

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

32 of the last 35 winners finished first or second in their last race.

13 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8.

Only 3 of the last 31 winners have been younger than 7.

Favourites have a good record with 6 wins in the last 18 renewals,

With last year’s winner, Cooldine, bidding for Gold Cup glory, this years crop is headed in the betting by the runner up in last years World Hurdle. Due to join him in the line up, his stable mate, the exciting French addition to the Henderson yard, along with a host of other talented British and Irish novice chasers.

Punchestowns
7-y-o Gelding
Morespeed (UK) – History (FR) (Alesso (USA)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Top-notch hurdler who finished runner up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle at last year’s Festival. Made his anticipated debut over fences in November at Newbury in a Grade 2 where he was a facile winner in a four strong field. Returned in early February at Sandown to face four rivals in the Challengers Novices’ Chase. Again an easy winner despite one very bad blunder, but is yet to really be tested. However, he is the classiest horse in this field, and with no worries over ability, ground or stamina, no surprise to see him favourite.

Long Run
5-y-o Gelding
Cadoudal (FR) – Libertina (FR) (Balsamo (FR)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: French import that made his much anticipated UK debut in the three mile Grade 1 Feltham. He ran out an impressive winner and although his main danger clearly didn’t stay, the second has won both starts since. Sent to Warwick for a preparation run in the Kingmaker on Saturday, over a much shorter two mile trip, he made it two from two with a comfortable win. Holds an entry to the Arkle , but his trainer confirmed, before and after Saturday’s win, this is his intended target. Although he has done nothing wrong, this will be a tough ask for a young horse and his jumping does not convince me.

Diamond Harry
7-y-o Gelding
Sir Harry Lewis (USA) – Swift Conveyance (IRE) (Strong Gale (UK)
Nick Williams
Notes: Smart hurdler whose undefeated start to racing came to an end, when third in the Neptune (then the Ballymore), at last year’s Festival. Back to winning ways at the start of this season, followed by a third to Big Bucks in the Long Walk. He was sent chasing at the turn of the year and won a four runner Grade 2 at Haydock over two and a half miles. Finished clear of Knockara Beau, beaten since by Weird Al, after his main rival Bensalem fell. Beat Bensalem again on Saturday in a three runner race over three miles, but Bensalem did well to stay upright and yet only finished two lengths behind. Has done nothing wrong but I just can’t see him winning this.

Weird Al
7-y-o Gelding
Accordion (UK) – Bucks Gift (IRE) (Buckley (UK)
Ian Williams
Notes: Unbeaten since debut second, and three from three over fences. Raced Knockara Beau up the Cheltenham hill on chase debut in November and came out on top close home. Back a month later he put four rivals to the sword with a nice round of jumping. Up in trip, to three miles one furlong, in the Towton earlier this month, he confirmed form with Kockara Beau by winning again, and put in another top round of jumping. Two for two at the track, lightly raced and quite possibly with more to come, must be a definite player at fair odds.

Pandorama
7-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA) – Gretchen’s Castle (IRE) (Carlingford Castle (UK)
Noel Meade
Notes: Top notch horse whose career stats show eight wins from nine starts. Talented hurdler who finished second to Mikael D’haguenet in a three runner Grade 1 event, before winning the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle afterwards, when benefiting from a last flight fall from Cousin Vinny. Jumped left most of the way on chase debut and got headed before battling back for narrow win. Form of that race is working out very well and much more impressive when winning a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. Still showed the occasional tendency to jump left but no sign of that when winning Grade 1 Knight Frank Novice Chase at Leopardstown when stepped up to three miles. Leading when entering the straight, he was once again headed, and once again, rallied to get back up and win by a short head. Likeable horse with a big chance and incomprehensible that he is available at bigger odds than the horse he beat that day, Weapons Amnesty.

Pandorama has suffered a muscle injury ruling him out of the race – 01.03.2010

Mikael D’haguenet
6-y-o Gelding
Lavirco (GER) – Fleur D’haguenet (FR) (Dark Stone (FR)
Willie Mullins
Notes: French import who has proven to be a top hurdler landing three Grade 1s in his undefeated streak of six from six. Included in that, is his win at last years Festival in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (now the Neptune). Yet to go chasing since leaving France and so a watching brief advised.

Others
Bensalem got close to Diamond Harry on Saturday but does not look a natural at fences and seems sure to throw in one shocker per round.

Weapons Amnesty has finished second to Pandorama and Citizen Vic on his last two starts and can only hope for minor honours at best here, though unlikely.

Citizen Vic won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time out but doesn’t look good enough to feature here while Tazbar, who finished second to Long Run three starts ago, has won his last two races, but over shorter, and has minimal place claims at best.

Uimhiraceathair won his chase debut for Willie Mullins but looks no world-beater despite dead heating in a Navan Grade 2 on Sunday. Similar comments have to apply to Paul Nicholls’s The Nightingale, though he was more impressive on debut, it’s hard to get excited about the odds on offer for either.

Gansey won the other day and was impressive in doing so. At odds currently around 66/1, having jumped and traveled well, you can see why a few bob has been put down on him to sneak a place.

Verdict
Punchestowns will be hard to beat but I’m going to take him on with a horse I’ve always liked a lot, and who has a bigger chance than his position in the betting suggests. PANDORAMA’s jumping has gradually improved with each run to date, and he will have no problem with any underfoot conditions, though softer ground is preferred. His attitude and battling spirit are perfect for the job and the trip should be ideal. 14/1 is way too big for a horse of his ability and as his trainer has confirmed his likely participation, I for one will be all over it.

1pt e/w Pandorama @ 14/1 with Bet365, PaddyPower or William Hill.

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

15 of the last 17 winners won their last race.

14 of the last 17 winners have been trained in Ireland.

5 is the magic number with 10 winners of that age.

Willie Mullins is the trainer to follow with 5 wins. (plus one as a jockey)

Dermot Weld was confident of winning last years renewal but had to settle for third and sixth, as Dunguib destroyed the field. However, he will be heading back just as confident this year, topping the market again, this time with two potentially very smart horses. In truth though, there are no great standouts in this year’s field and it looks an average renewal.

Elegant Concorde
5-y-o Gelding
Definite Article (UK) – Talina’s Law (IRE) (Law Society (USA)
Dermot Weld
Notes: Nice horse who finished second on debut, beaten by Tornedo Shay, who has gone on to do pretty well since. He ran well in defeat and no surprise to see him victorious when returning at the back end of last year. Still looked a touch green that day, but did it nicely, and form of the race has been ok since. He meets the three main trends above, has solid form but trainer has issued a ground warning (*see Hidden Universe below for details) regarding his possible participation along with the likelihood he may not run both his market leaders.

Hidden Universe
4-y-o Gelding
Linamix (FR) – Hint Of Humour (USA) (Woodman (USA)
Dermot Weld
Notes: Cost €150,000 as a yearling and is a smart horse who bolted in on debut at the beginning of the year in heavy ground. He cruised through the race with ease and showed a really impressed ability to quicken right away when asked. Form of the race an unknown with only one runner appearing since but well regarded by his master trainer. Just like his stable mate, a ground warning has been issued, and it appears that unless soft or worse, he will not take his chance.
Dermot Weld’s comments – Click here to read them (Sporting Life)

Al Ferof
5-y-o Gelding
Dom Alco (FR) – Maralta (FR) (Altayan (IRE)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: Third on debut, before bolting up by ten lengths at Fairyhouse. Picked up by Paul Nicholls shortly after, but this is one of the only Festival races he is yet to make much of an impact on. Winner of the Winter Bumper at Newbury this afternoon, he was quite impressive. Could be a player if taking his chance, but I’m passing him over.

Tavern Times
6-y-o Gelding
Presenting (UK) – Hazlewood (IRE) (Supreme Leader (UK)
Tom Mullins
Notes: Highly regarded by trainer and made a favourable impression when smart winner on debut in October at Fairyhouse. Form working out quite well but his preparation has been hindered by weather. His trainers’ keenness to get another run into him is a bit of a worry and a failure to do so may see him skip the race.

Araucaria
6-y-o Mare
Accordion (IRE) – Native Artist (IRE) (Be My Native (USA)
John Kiely
Notes: She was a nice winner on debut of a competitive mares race at Punchestown in October. Entered in a Mares Listed event at Navan, she was given an enormous amount to do entering the straight but stayed on strongly to finish second. Back at Punchestown in December, she spread-eagled another mares only field, winning by half the track. Her twenty-four length winning margin prompted her trainer to say afterwards she ‘may be the best mare he has ever trained’. No ground worries, but will be facing males for the first time and if regular partner takes the ride again, I would only be interested at bigger odds than those available. Only two other mares have won this race.

Up Ou That
5-y-o Gelding
Alderbrook (UK) – Delnac (IRE) (Lucifer (USA)
Willie Mullins
Notes: May have only beaten three rivals on debut in January this year, but was as impressive as could be. Traveled well, and lengthened away in the heavy ground really nicely, and of course, trainers record in this race not exactly a negative, although hard to access what he actually achieved in his win. Is also a winner of a two and a half mile maiden point to point, and looks best of the Mullins team at the moment; Don’t Turn Bach seems an unlikely starter, but there is lots of interest around the unraced Quaquo De Flotte.

Tetlami
4-y-o Gelding
Alderbrook (UK) – Delnac (IRE) (Lucifer (USA)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Beautifully bred horse who made a comfortable enough winning debut. Runner up a fortnight later to Jacques Vert giving him 7lb, but comfortably reversed those placings when winning on New Years Day at Cheltenham. Course form a big plus and traveled well throughout. The race has worked out well but yet to run over more than a mile six. No ground concerns and looks a bigger price than should be.

Drumbaloo
6-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA) – Supreme Baloo (IRE) (Supreme Leader (UK)
James Lambe
Notes: Former point to point winner who’s likely to be the Dungannon based trainers’ only representative in the Cotswolds. Wide margin winner in a maiden, and remains unbeaten by adding another two wins to his collection. Last time a winner in a Grade 2 race at Navan, when clinging on from Tornedo Shay, and the form of his wins is looking solid enough. Trainer hasn’t given the impression he is hugely confident of much though and despite good prices available, he’s not one I’m interested in.

Others

Forty Foot Tom went of 25/1 when annihilating the opposition at Navan by a whopping twenty-four lengths. Subsequently sold for £220,000, his odds of 25/1 look too big to me.

Quaquo De Flotte has always been prominent in the betting amid whispers of being Willie Mullins secret weapon, but is yet to be unleashed. Similarly, Day Of A Lifetime has been quietly touted for the same trainer and is due to debut towards the end of February.

The J P McManus recent acquisition Made In Time, reportedly purchased on the recommendation of AP McCoy, was a nice winner at Ffos Las in January, but finished runner up to Al Ferof in the Newbury Winter Bumper earlier today. Dragons Roost, impressive on debut could only finish seventh in the same race, a run which probably scuppers his chances. Similar comments apply to the fifth, Ramses De Marcigny.

The third home, Carpincho, who had good Irish point form and beat the regarded Some Fool on debut, might have been my each way pick, but his run today, though alright, has put me off.

Dunraven Storm won well on debut but will need vast improvement to win here and I feel similar about Sizing Mexico.

Age Benefit may be the best of the big outsiders and is well liked by his trainer while German bred Shot From The Hip may fall into a similar category but looks unlikely to appear.

Prince Of Pirates entered calculations when winning yesterday but looked so fit beforehand, it’s likely he will go backwards now and is ignored. I would expect stablemate Bobs Worth, who finished a close second to him, to reverse the positions if they both run but don’t expect either to really land a blow.

Verdict
Although possible we have yet to see the winner run, I can’t help but feel Dermot Weld may be holding a couple of aces. The question at this point is which one will he play. On decent ground, ELEGANT CONCORDE would be my likely winner and I can’t see him going off anywhere near the 7/1 available right now. In recent days, Hidden Universe has been well backed, and certainly on soft or worse, his debut impressed me so much I would be firmly in his camp. However, with the doubts over which one of the Weld duo will run on the day, and a lack of a real standout candidate elsewhere, I would advise waiting till much nearer the day before making a play, or alternatively backing them both now.

That’s not to say the current market doesn’t offer value somewhere. Forty Foot Tom was so devastating on debut that his odds of 25/1 are surely too big, but with just one run on heavy ground, I feel more comfortable giving my each way vote to Tetlami. He was an impressive winner at Cheltenham in January, has no concerns over ground, and although has slight stamina doubts, the 25/1 available at the moment more than covers them.

1 pt win - Elegant Concorde @ 7/1 with Totesport or William Hill
and/or
1 pt win – Hidden Universe @ 8/1 with Bet365, PaddyPower or Ladbrokes

0.5 pt e/w – Tetlami @ 25/1 with PaddyPower or Bet365

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

1 winning favourite from 5 runs.

Paul Nicholls has saddled 2 of the 5 previous winners.

12 of the 15 horses to have won or placed came from the top 4 in the betting.

Only 3 of the 15 horses to have won or placed have been younger than 8.

With last year’s winner Gold Cup bound, the second and third return hoping to fair better. They are joined among others by the Irish Hennessey first and third, the Paddy Power front two and a representative for the Queen.

Poquelin
7-y-o Gelding
Lahint (USA) – Babolna (FR) (Tropular (UK)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: A lightly raced French horse on the flat, he failed to set the world alight hurdling, but has developed into a nice chaser. Boasts a 50% strike rate, four wins from eight, since chasing, and three from five at Cheltenham. Favourite for lasts years Grand Annual, but to say he never landed a blow would be kind. However, since stepped up from two miles to two and a half, he has improved leaps and bounds. Opened the season with a comfortable success at the Prestbury Park venue and followed up by chasing home Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power. Returned again in mid December to land a Grade 3 event without much trouble. Solid enough jumper, but I can’t make a clear case for him reversing the form with Tranquil Sea, and at the current prices, I think he is short enough.

Barbers Shop
8-y-o Gelding
Saddlers’ Hall (IRE) – Close Harmony (UK) (Bustino (UK)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Showed promise in his hurdling days, and finished a very close second to Big Bucks on chase debut. After highly tried in a three mile Grade 1, he found his feet chasing home Finger Onthe Pulse in a competitive listed event at Cheltenham, and returned there to chase home Imperial Commander in the Paddy Power, both over two and a half miles. Stepped back up in trip again, he took in a listed race on his way to a Gold Cup bid, but weakened in the closing stages of the Festival showpiece, to finish seventh. Beaten by Kauto Star, he was then beaten by Denman in the Hennessey, traveling as well as any, but fading away to finish fourth. The King George followed, where a solid enough third, but again stamina limitations were highlighted for all to see. Viewed by some as not quite top grade, I think that’s a mistake, and a drop back, to a trip that will clearly suit, makes him a serious contender.

Tranquil Sea
8-y-o Gelding
Sea Raven (IRE) – Silver Valley (IRE) (Henbit (USA)
Edward O’Grady
Notes: Useful hurdler who finished eighth in the Supreme two years ago, behind Captain Cee Bee. Caused a slight shock a month later when beating the talented Fiveforthree in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, when stepped up to two and half miles. Winner of a listed race on his first chasing appearance, he then struggled to land a blow in two Grade 1 events. Back at the Festival, he was a never nearer sixth in the Jewson. Back over two miles, he beat Joncol to win the Poplar Square Chase and a fortnight later, was a comfortable winner of the Paddy Power. Back in Grade 1 company, he was a well beaten second to Golden Silver and may have to settle for a similar position in this.

Joncol
7-y-o Gelding
Bob’s Return (IRE) – Finemar Lady (IRE) (Montelimar (USA)
Paul Nolan
Notes: Lightly raced horse, which after showing good form in two NHF races, went straight to chasing. Winning his first three starts, including a Grade 2, he finished a close third in the Grade 1 three mile Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown. Solid second to Tranquil Sea in the two mile Poplar Square Chase, he won the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial over two and a half. Back up to three miles in the Lexus, he traveled like the winner and looked to indeed have it won, two from home, but was run down by What A Friend and Money Trix in the final half furlong. Two months on, and back at Leopardstown, he gained victory in the Irish Hennessey. Having traveled and jumped well, he joined Cooldine for a battle up the straight and came out on top strides before the line. Never raced outside Ireland and yet to encounter good ground, is respected by others preferred.

Joncol to skip the Festival in favour of Punchestown – 17.02.2010

Schindlers Hunt
10-y-o Gelding
Oscar Schindler (IRE) – Snipe Hunt (IRE) (Stalker (UK)
Dessie Hughes
Notes: Dual Group 1 winner, and four times runner up, quite often runs a bigger race than his odds suggest. Fourth to Master Minded in the Queen Mother two years ago, he ran a cracker in this last year. Third to Imperial Commander and Voy Por Ustedes, he then went to the Melling Chase, behind winner Voy Por Ustedes again but by a narrow margin. Runner up to Notre Pere in the Punchestown Gold Cup, he then disappointed when fourth in the Amlin, with Planet Of Sound and Voy Por Ustedes ahead of him. A never nearer fifth in the Lexus Chase, he looked at one stage a possible winner of the Irish Hennessey. Tiring towards the finish, at the end of three miles in heavy ground, this trip will be absolutely ideal. Again priced a couple of points bigger than he should be, he has solid claims of at least matching last year’s effort. Although he has some good performances on ground soft or worse, he does look far more at home on a better surface, which he may well get.

Others
Barker was denied the Powers Gold Cup by a narrow margin and made up for that when truly beating Forpadydeplasterer, last year’s Arkle winner, a race later. Unseating on his seasonal return, he could be an each way play but holds an entry to the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the whispers say, that will be his likely destination.

Planet Of Sound was a good third in last years Arkle and finished ahead of Voy Por Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt in the Amlin, but I’m still not sure about his stamina or his ability in this company.

Chapoturgeon was a good winner of the Jewson last year but has been plagued by jumping errors since. Will need a clear round in this company to possibly sneak a place.

Voy Por Ustedes’s Cheltenham Festival form is there for all to see, and having been runner up in his last two festivals, last year in this race, must be considered. However, his seasonal reappearance disappointed, and when trying three miles in the Lexus, he never landed a blow. Will hope to improve his claims when he takes on Master Minded later today but jumping errors in last few races will need to be left behind.

Deep Purple was a decent hurdler in his own right but has improved no end since, now chasing. Winner of three Grade 2s in a row, he was fancied in some quarters to give Kauto Star a race in the King George but burst a blood vessel. Will do well on the back of that, to feature here.

Verdict
Voy Por Ustedes doesn’t look the same horse at the moment and although a dangerous move, I must look elsewhere. BARBERS SHOP has bumped into two of the best staying chasers the game has seen, on his two starts, and yet, hasn’t be disgraced over a trip he can’t quite get. There is no Denman or Kauto Star in this field, and with no worries about jumping, stamina, ground or ability, he is my likely winner, with Tranquil Sea his biggest threat. Schindlers Hunt similarly will be ideally suited by the trip, and if getting decent ground, should at least match his achievements here last year.

1pt win Barbers Shop @ 6/1 with Boylesports, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes or William Hill
0.5pt e/w Schindlers Hunt @ 14/1 with Ladbrokes or William Hill

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

22 of the last 24 winners started in the top 6 of the betting.

6yo’s have won 7 out of the last 10 renewals.

French Holly, winner in 1998 aged 7, is the only horse older than 6 to have won the race since 1974 and Brown Lad, winner in ‘74 aged 8, the only other horse to do so.

25 of the last 26 winners had won or finished second on their previous start.

This looks set to be an interesting renewal with a cast of talented novices’ and a sprinkling of potential future Gold Cup winners in the making. However, with a number of the field holding dual entries, the line up is far from set.

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Rite Of Passage
6-y-o Gelding
Giant’s Causeway (USA) – Dahlia’s Krissy (USA) (Kris S (USA)
Dermot Weld
Notes: Started life in bumpers and was sent of a confident favourite for the Champion Bumper at last years Festival when finishing third to Dunguib. Hadn’t recovered from the exertions of that, when fourth a month later at the Curragh, but duly dispatched a maiden field later in the year. Sent off a surprising 7/1 in the Leopardstown November Handicap and made those odds look silly when bolting in, by eight lengths, eased down. His long anticipated debut over hurdles came early this year, where at long odds on, he readily won from Grey Soldier, a comfortable winner since. A fluent jumper on that occasion, he is regarded highly by connections but inexperience a possible Achilles’ heel. Holds entries to both here and the Supreme, but with stamina unlikely to be an issue, both the betting and the likelihood of facing Dunguib again suggest this as his likely destination. Due to run two and half miles on Feb 17th at Punchestown, Weld has mentioned the possibility of skipping Cheltenham for a flat campaign, but I’d be surprised if he did!

Quel Esprit
6-y-o Gelding
Saint Des Saints (FR) – Jeune D’esprit (FR) (Royal Charter (FR)
Willie Mullins
Notes: Nothing more than a work out when dotting up in a NHF race on debut at Leopardstown. Then finished fourth in the Champion Bumper at last years Festival, where just behind Rite Of Passage. Back to winning ways at Punchestown the following month, then returned in November to make a winning start over hurdles. The next three home have all won since, and he went on to follow up when barely breaking sweat to land a Grade 3 at Cork. However, he suffered a shock defeat a fortnight ago when beaten at odds on by Coole River in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown and seemingly had no excuses for his half length defeat. Although clearly useful, others are preferred and his more likely destination could be the Albert Bartlett.

Peddlers Cross
5-y-o Gelding
Oscar (IRE) – Patscilla (UK) (Squill (USA)
Donald McCain Jr
Notes: Having opened his account in a NHF race at Haydock back in November, he remains undefeated two starts later. (Four from four if you include his point to point success) After a demolition job at Bangor, he returned to Haydock to land a Grade 2, trouncing his three opponents in the process. He looked top notch in doing so, but his races to date have been over extended two mile trips and although stamina not a concern, he does hold an entry to the Supreme. Currently trading at 14/1, you can’t help but feel if he was trained by a Nicholls or a Mullins he would be a lot shorter.

Finians Rainbow
7-y-o Gelding
Tiraaz (USA) – Trinity Gale (IRE) (Strong Gale (UK)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Would be an injustice to consider this horse the Henderson second string but in reality he more than likely is. Facile winner of a NHF race at Kempton, he duly bolted up in a Newbury novices’ hurdle. The second has disappointed since, and to some degree, as has he. Sent off favourite in the Challow Hurdle, he led at the last, and although he could have jumped it better, he was simply out-battled close home, beaten by Reve De Sivola and Restless Harry. Although the margin was narrow and he was inexperienced compared to those two, the proximity of the fourth horse suggests place claims at best.

Quantitativeeasing
5-y-o Gelding
Anshan (UK) – Mazuma (IRE) (Mazaad (IRE)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Undefeated in first three starts, he is probably the classiest horse in the line up. Having dispatched a decent bumper field at Punchestown with absolute ease, he made his much-anticipated debut over hurdles in November. Sent off an odds on favourite, he cruised through the race before effortlessly drawing away to score with ease. He then followed up a month later in similar fashion at Newbury, jumping and traveling supremely well. Having raced over two miles give or take, he was stepped up in trip at Kempton earlier today, but suffered a surprise defeat, as odds on favourite, to the unexposed Phidipiddes, sending his Antepost odds sky high.

Reve De Sivola
5-y-o Gelding
Assessor (IRE) – Eva De Chalamont (FR) (Iron Duke (FR)
Nick Williams
Notes: Far more experienced than most here, with eight runs over hurdles, but only two have yielded wins. Although a never dangerous sixth on debut, he was highly tried in a Grade 2 around Cheltenham next, and although well beaten, he was a promising third at big odds. Beaten by Walkon the next twice, he ran well in defeat and always looked as if in need of further; never more so than when sixth to Zaynar in the Triumph, despite a stumble on the bend. Stepped up in trip this season, he was an easy winner of a Grade 2 before finishing second to Tell Massini at the same level. Got up close home to beat Restless Harry and Finians Rainbow in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, but will need more to win this. Zero from four at Cheltenham but has run creditably on each occasion, however, still gives impression a further step up in trip would be appreciated.

Others
Restless Harry continued on from his second place in the Challow with a Grade 2 win at Cheltenham but will need more to feature here.
Morning Supreme was fifth in the Champion Bumper, two for two since hurdling and looks smart but place claims at best and may possibly re-oppose Dunguib in the Supreme instead.
Fionnegas chased home Dunguib last time but has a few issues, notably jumping, that suggest he will do well to get involved while Tell Massini must surely be Albert Bartlett bound.
Loosen My Load has done nothing wrong, but on a line through Some Present has a similar chance to Fionnegas.

Verdict
Although impressed with Quantitativeeasing, his defeat today over this distance seriously dented his chances. I have been a follower of RITE OF PASSAGE from day one and I have no intention of changing. No matter the task, Dermot Weld has always held this horse in the highest regard and I believe his views will be justified with a Festival win. However, in backing this horse you have to take a lot on faith and at odds of 9/2 against the potential opposition, my preferred recommendation will have to be Peddlers Cross each way. Odds of 14/1 must surely indicate value but are not as insulting as the 25/1 available for the Supreme. However, without a guaranteed destination at the time of writing, the sensible play must be to back in both markets.

4pt win Rite Of Passage @ 9/2 with William Hill
1pt e/w Peddlers Cross @ 14/1 with Bet365 (25/1 Supreme Novices, with William Hill)

The total prize fund for this race stands at around £320,000. The race itself is the feature on the second day of the Festival (Wednesday) and is always filled with high quality entrants. Traditionally the field sizes for this race are smaller than some of the other big Festival races; however what we lack in quantity is made up for in quality, as the very best two-mile chasers do battle over the larger fences at break neck speed – a thrilling spectacle for the racing fan.

A general rule to follow in this sort of race are horses which are to the forefront of the betting market, as in recent years favourites have a very decent record in the race, as does previous Arkle winners, unfortunately this year Forpadydeplasterer looks to be out for the festival with lameness, but I wouldn’t of fancied him anyway.

This race has produced some fantastic memories down the line, and one in particular which sticks in my mind was when Edredon Bleu got up on the line to nail Direct Route in 2000. That was an absolute thrilling spectacle for me, and in memory of that I uploaded the race footage to YouTube, which you can view here: Champion Chase 2000.

The winner of the race for the previous two years Master Minded looks set to return from injury shortly and currently heads the market at 6/4. If he is back to his best like he was in 2008 then I doubt they’ll see which way he goes but with the problems he has had over the past few months, it’s hard to get excited about backing him at such a price, and therefore it should pay to look elsewhere.

Key Trends
All of the last 31 winners finished placed at worst last time out.
9 of the last 11 Arkle Trophy winners were 1st or 2nd in this race the next year.
26 of the last 28 winners started at single-figure odds.
19 of the last 25 winners had been placed at the Festival before.
Just one winner older than 10 since 1997.

With Master Minded in a bid to emulate Badsworth Boy (the only horse to have won this race three times) it is worth noting that Irish trained horses have a very respectable record in the race (19 from 50) and they last saddled the winner with Newmill back in 2006.

Master Minded
7-y-o Gelding
Nikos (9.7f) — Haute Tension (FR) (Garde Royale (11.2f))
Notes: An awesome winner of this race back in 2008, when slaughtering Voy Por Ustedes hard on the bridle. Looking back it could have been that Voy Por Ustedes was beginning his decline at the very top level (despite him reversing placings at Aintree next time). He was more workmanlike in his success last year but still won by seven lengths with Well Chief back in second. The form of his last run hasn’t worked out well at all, with both Well Chief and Mahogany Blaze getting beaten on all starts since (they finished in-front of him). This in part would be down to a fractured rib found on his right side two weeks after the race. He is due to run on Saturday in a weak renewal of the Game Spirit chase and that should tell us more, but I’m not willing to get involved at this stage at 6/4.

Twist Magic
8-y-o Gelding
Winged Love (IRE) (14.7f) — Twist Scarlett (GER) (Lagunas (11.0f))
Notes: Has obviously improved slightly this year with two big margin successes going right handed, Twist Magic has thrown himself firmly into the Champion Chase ring with those wins, however I can’t have him at all. His record round left handed track reads a measly 1 from 8 (that’s a conversion of 12%). Compare that to his right handed form of 9 from 15 (60%) and you notice quite a difference. We can also factor in that he has looked a suspect stayer in the past and I believe he is a horse who just about gets the two-miles, so an uphill finish like at Cheltenham will certainly stretch him. His jumping also had a tendency to be a little erratic and over these fences you will more times than not come unstuck. Add in that in 12 races he has been ridden by someone other than Ruby Walsh, he has only won twice (Compared to Ruby’s 7 wins from 10). You have to think that Ruby Walsh will opt for Master Minded should he come through his race okay on Saturday, thus rendering Twist Magic’s case useless come Champion Chase day?

Well Chief
11-y-o Gelding
Night Shift (USA) (8.0f) — Wellesiena (GER) (Scenic (9.9f))
Notes: Is certainly best kept fresh and looks to be heading to the festival without a run since January which fits into that trend. However he appears on the downgrade after an excellent comeback last March his form has got progressively worse and that’s the reason why he is now 33/1. Should the break revive him given his record on the track (8 Runs, 3 Wins, 4 Seconds) then there is every chance he’ll fill the frame at a large price, but I can’t get excited about his chances I’m afraid.

Kalahari King
9-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Queen Of Warsaw (FR) (Assert)
Notes: Its amazing looking at his profile that he is already 9 years old! This is a horse I hold in very high regard and have done since he first came over to England. He has taken to fences very well and his performance last time out was seriously impressive, considering he wasn’t fit, needed the run, and wasn’t going to be given a hard race and thus drifted markedly in the betting (*cough* Mr Murphy). Two solid runs at the Festival in the past (4th in the Supreme Novices to Captain Cee Bee & 2nd in the Arkle to Forpadydeplasterer) suggests this type of big race is right up his street and after advising him at 10-1 for the race last year, I feel somewhat obliged to tip him again, given how he’d of won with another stride last year.

Big Zeb
9-y-o Gelding
Oscar (IRE) (15.2f) — Our Siveen (Deep Run (13.4f))
Notes: Is a horse which goes well fresh and has had issues with his jumping in the past. If you look back at last years Queen Mum, you’d have seen he was still in there pitching and travelling well when coming to grief 4 out. He then ran Master Minded to within a head at Punchestown, before an electric comeback run at Navan in November beating decent horses with consummate ease. He then went to Sandown for the Tingle Creek and despite going off a well backed favourite, he never looked happy on the track and finished a well beaten fourth. The race may have come too soon after his comeback run, but he was back to form at Punchestown winning the Cottage Chase (Grade 2) with ease almost two weeks ago and looks to head to The Festival in great shape.

Barker
9-y-o Gelding
Mister Mat (FR) — Drumrawn Lass (IRE) (King´s Ride (14.0f))
Notes: Is very much an unknown as to how good he actually is. Started off in modest company and failed to land a blow and was then transferred to Willie Mullins who has appeared to have produced some sort of magician act into turning this gelding into a serious champion chase contender. He easily beat last years Arkle winner at Punchestown off level weights by 15 lengths, and then was travelling well on his return in December when unseating his rider behind Joncol in the John Durkan. Quite how good he is nobody knows but he is certainly a ‘dark horse’ for this championship race and his ability to stay further than two miles is a big plus in what is usually a fiercely run race. Quite whether he is good enough remains to be seen but the quotes of 25/1 doing the rounds is quite appealing to small stakes.

Petit Robin
7-y-o Gelding
Robin Des Pres (FR) — Joie De Cotte (FR) (Lute Antique (FR))
Notes: Looked quite a smart horse when making his debut over fences at the back-end of 2008, and ran a race full of credit at The Festival when third to Master Minded. He has since been touted a couple of times for the RyanAir chase, so it remains to be seen which race he’ll actually go for. I’m sure if he learns to brush up his jumping he could be a real player in the Champion Chase but I’d guess there will be one or two just too classy for him, so sticking him in the RyanAir could well be a wise move by connections.

Verdict:
In what looks sure to be a fast and furious renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase, it could pay to side with BIG ZEB again, who appears to have brushed up his jumping somewhat and rates a value choice against the short, but ultimately imperious Master Minded. Kalahari King was one I was interested in, but his current odds of 6/1 does little to inspire me considering I backed him at 10s for last years Arkle, and although I wish him well – I wont be on this year. Barker is the unknown quantity in the race, and he could literally be anything (although I assume Ruby Walsh has a handle on him), he could be worth a cheeky small stakes play at 25/1 (SportingBet) and is worth adding in as cover.

1pt win – Big Zeb @ 7-1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill or PaddyPower.
0.25pt e/w – Barker @ 25-1 with SportingBet.

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

French bred horses have won 7 out of the last 15 races, yet have represented less than 25% of the competitors.

Only 1 favourite has won since 1992, yet since Waterloo Boy won in 1989 at 20/1, the biggest winning SP has been 11/1.

Again since Waterloo Boy’s victory aged 8, only one other horse above 7 has emerged victorious, Moscow Flyer in 2002.

21 of the last 22 winners had finished first or second in a all completed chase starts.

An interesting field look set to line up this year, including a Supreme Novices’ winner, last years fast finishing Supreme Novices’ third and a former Champion Hurdle favourite.

Captain Cee Bee
9-y-o Gelding
Germany (USA) – Elea Victoria (IRE) (Sharp Victor (USA)
Edward Harty
Notes: Looked a class act when making it three form three over hurdles by beating Binocular to land the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but pulled up a month later at Aintree after picking up an injury that saw him sidelined through out the following season. Showed his talent still remained despite a switch to chasing when returning to win a beginners chase and then traveling all over Sizing Europe with Osana well beaten in behind when tipping up over the final fence at Leopardstown. Confidence recovered with an easy victory since, though a mistake at the final fence again might have put doubts into the heads of a few followers. Heavy support recently makes him clear favourite and without doubt the one to beat.

Sizing Europe
8-y-o Gelding
Pistolet Bleu (IRE) – Jennie Dun (IRE) (Mandalus (UK)
Henry De Bromhead
Notes: A one time Champion Hurdle favourite, his inability to stay two miles was exposed at the highest level, but after defeat to Solwhit in the Champion Hurdle at Punchestown, his attentions have switched to chasing. Back at Punchestown he made a bloodless debut over the bigger obstacles and returned in October to rout Harchibald and others in a Grade 3. Similar story in November upped in Grade again but may well have had to settle for the runners up position had Captain Cee Bee not fallen at the final fence in the Grade 1 Bord Na Mona. Like his hurdling career, he will no doubt have a host of followers but I’m not one of them and there are a couple of other entrants I prefer.

Somersby
6-y-o Gelding
Second Empire (IRE) – Back To Roost (IRE) (Presenting (UK)
Henrietta Knight
Notes: A lightly raced horse with 4 wins from 8 starts in all sphere’s, he has only once finished unplaced, when a sh-hd fourth on hurdling debut. Third at big odds in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle he has now turned to chasing and opened with an easy success in a Warwick novice chase. He only beat four rivals that day who haven’t done much since but he did jump and travel very well. He went on to record a second success in early December, winning the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase where again he jumped impeccably, beating Crack Away Jack and Tchico Polos. Plans to head straight to the festival from there have been upheld, Sizing Europe similar, and although you have to go back a fair few years to find an Arkle winner without a prep race in the same year, he clearly runs well fresh and fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Somersby deserves his place towards the top of the market and has big claims.

Long Run
5-y-o Gelding
Cadoudal (FR) – Libertina (FR) (Balsamo (FR)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Looked a likely runner in the RSA but runs over two miles on Saturday and if running well, could have his target switched to the Arkle. Can’t argue with his French form, and an impressive winner at Kempton in December. He jumped really well that day but a drop from three miles to two, to run against some of the horses likely to line up in this field, must be seen as a negative. Clearly talented but despite what he does at the weekend and how he does it, I would prefer his chances in the RSA Chase than in here.

Riverside Theatre
6-y-o Gelding
King’s Theatre (IRE) – Disallowed (IRE) (Distinctly North (USA)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Decent enough hurdler but a touch shy of the top level. Has won both a beginners and a novices’ chase with relative ease while jumping well, but nothing much to the opposition of either race. Possible place claims but hard to see him beat some of the classier horses above and not of interest at current odds.

Sports Line
7-y-o Gelding
Norwich (IRE) – Hot Line (IRE) (Riverhead (USA)
Willie Mullins
Notes: Lightly raced horse with just 7 runs which have yielded 4 wins. Never highly tried over hurdles before switched to chasing, when winning his debut at Navan cosily. Strongly fancied for the Arkle at Leopardstown but beaten by An Cathaoir Mor, who’s expected to re-oppose, but he’s surely De Bromhead’s second string and hard to fancy Sports Line with that in mind.

Tataniano
6-y-o Gelding
Sassanian (USA) – Rosa Carola (FR) (Rose Laurel (IRE)
Paul Nicholls
Notes: Lightly raced over hurdles but gave the impression he was more than useful. Destroyed a small field at Exeter on chase debut and a comfortable success followed at Cheltenham in November. Shock defeat since in a three runner race at long odds on, where he jumped right and more importantly, jumped badly. That is a serious worry, as he will not have such an easy time up in front in this, and so he’s hard to fancy.

Verdict
In my opinion Sizing Europe would have been beaten by Captain Cee Bee and it’s hard to ignore just how well he was going at the time of his fall. In fact, it is hard to oppose him at all, but the price has continued to drop from around the 25/1’s some people snaffled up to around 7/2 currently and although I think he is the one to beat, I prefer the profile of SOMERSBY. I think he is the better jumper, is clearly talented and looks a real top chaser in the making. For me he is the one to be on but a cheeky reverse forecast bet might also be worthwhile.

2pt win – Somersby @ 7/1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill or PaddyPower.
0.5pt RFC – Captain Cee Bee and Somersby

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

22 of the last 26 winners have won last time out.

Katchit, winner of the 2008 renewal, became the first 5yo to emerge victorious since 1985.

Just 3 winners since 1951 have been older than 8.

Since Beech Road won at 50/1, 17 of the last 19 winners have been in the first 6 in the betting.

14 of the last 18 winners had finished first or second in a previous festival race.

The first three home in last years renewal look set to return, along with one or possibly two other previous champions but the top of the betting is taken up by the new brigade.


Zaynar
5-y-o Gelding
Daylami (IRE) – Zainta (IRE) (Kahyasi (IRE)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Undefeated in 5 runs so far, he never truly impresses but always gives the impression there is plenty left in the tank. It’s probably fair to say his only true test so far came in last years festival, but he passed it well holding of the challenge of Walkon up the famous Cheltenham hill to win the Triumph Hurdle, with Starluck back in fourth. Equally effective on good and soft ground, he has one of the key attributes I look for in a Champion Hurdle bet; The ability to win over further than 2 miles. He’ll compete in the VC Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso on the 18th February as a prep for the showpiece. He has never been far away from antepost favourite and it’s hard to argue that he isn’t the one to beat despite hitting the occasional flat spot.

Solwhit
6-y-o Gelding
Solon (GER) – Toowhit Towhee (USA) (Lucky North (USA)
Charles Brynes
Notes: A smart and improving horse, he has won five Grade 1s in his last six races and is successful in 8 out of 11 starts over hurdles. Having missed Cheltenham last year, after landing his first Graded race with ease, he lowered the colours of Willie Mullins highly regarded Fiveforthree in the Aintree Hurdle before beating last years Champion Hurdle winner, Punjabi, at Punchestown. After tearing away from Hurricane Fly with a devastating turn of foot to begin this campaign, he was undone by a slowly run race in the Fighting Fifth. Behind Go Native and Sublimity that day, he has comfortably reversed his placings with the latter since. He has smoothly moved up the antepost market to become current joint favourite, when confirming that form with Sublimity, along with handing out defeats to two likely re-opposers, Donna’s Palm and Celestial Halo, during a bloodless success in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He ticks a lot of boxes and has massive claims of becoming Champion Hurdler but I can’t help but feel he might just find one too good.

Go Native
7-y-o Gelding
Double Eclipse (IRE) – Native Idea (IRE) (Be My Native (USA)
Noel Meade
Notes: A classy horse, only once out of the first two over hurdles, with 7 wins from 11 starts. 4 Grade 1s in the bag including the Supreme Novices’ last year when holding of the fast finishing Medermit. Well beaten by Hurricane Fly at Punchestown, before beating very little at Tipperary. Below par performance at Down Royal saw him go off 25/1 when cutting through the field in a slowly run Fighting Fifth but confirmed his well being when beating Starluck and Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. These two wins have put him high up in the betting but more importantly for connections, in with a shot at the one million pound bonus on offer for completing the treble. He ticks a lot of boxes and brings arguably the strongest form to the race, making him a serious contender.

Binocular
6-y-o Gelding
Enrique (UK) – Bleu Ciel Et Blanc (FR) (Pistolet Bleu (IRE)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Second in the Supreme Novices’ to the clearly talented Captain Cee Bee, before finishing third in this race last year when warm favourite. Highlighted for his effective hurdling style, he was unable to match Katchit in victory as a 5yo, when doubts of stamina up the Cheltenham hill were confirmed. Form of last year’s renewal is doubted by the performances since of the first three home, and Binocular has looked nothing like the horse who headed last years market. Hard to see him reverse the placings with Go Native and can take nothing from his Sandown win in a 3 runner field. Currently at best odds of 8/1, I’d rather donate my money to the bankers bonus fund.

Binocular has been ruled out due to a muscle problem – 17.02.2010

Khyber Kim
8-y-o Gelding
Mujahid (USA) – Jungle Rose (UK) (Shirley Heights (UK)
Nigel Twiston-Davies
Notes: Well beaten in two previous Festival appearances, but has won last two at the track. Last time out he won the International Hurdle, with Celestial Halo, Medermit and Punjabi in behind but too hit or miss and doesn’t strike me as good enough to beat main three contenders, even if putting best foot forward.

Starluck
5-y-o Gelding
Key Of Luck (USA) – Sarifa (IRE) (Kahyasi (UK)
Alan Fleming
Notes: Four from eight over hurdles, and fourth to Zaynar last year followed by a third to Walkon at Aintree. Seasonal return impressive, and fair to say few will travel better come ‘the off’ but despite showing more promise when finishing strongly in the Christmas Hurdle, big doubts when push comes to shove. Hard to see him finally getting the better of Zaynar so place claims only.

OF THE OTHERS

Medermit came close to beating Go Native last year but has been behind Khyber Kim last twice and hard to take massive encouragement from his defeat of an out of form Punjabi.

Reigning champ Punjabi was the forgotten horse last year but I don’t see lightning set to strike twice with his two performances this season.

Another previous winner in Sublimity has been brushed aside twice, by Solwhit, this season and last years second Celestial Halo will find this years renewal a lot tougher.

Verdict
I expect the front three in the betting to provide the winner, and while it’s hard to knock what Solwhit has achieved so far, I thoroughly believe we haven’t seen ZAYNAR pushed to the max and although not as straight forward as some, I think he will be the Champion Hurdler 2010. Not an outsider by any means, but at a bigger price, I would fancy Starluck to run his race and sneak a place.

2pt win – Zaynar @ 5/1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill, PaddyPower or Bet365 (plus others).
0.5pt e/w – Starluck 16/1 with PaddyPower, Stan James or William Hill (plus others).

With this race being for four-year-olds only, it has often pointed to inexperience to being a problem in the past. Although in recent years with more horses coming off the flat to contest this race it has been less of an issue.

2007 victor, Katchit, was the first winner of this race since Kribensis in 1988 to go on to win the Champion Hurdle. On the whole, most winners tend to need much longer trips as their careers progress. Paddy’s Return, for example, became a top class staying hurdler, Katarino won the Fox Hunters’ Chase at Aintree over 2m 5½f two years in a row and, most notably of all, Commanche Court won the Irish National and was placed in a Gold Cup.

A few key stats worth taking on board for this race are:

13 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
11 of the last 16 winners started in the first 4 in the betting.
15 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders which is usually horses with experience off the flat (or French bred) and rate prominently in the betting market.

With a few bubbles already been burst over timber this season, it should be an interesting renewal of the big four-year-old showpiece and hopefully I’ve got the winner for you.


Mille Chief
4-y-o Gelding
Ski Chief (USA)  (11.0f) — Mille Flora (IRE) (Be My Guest (USA)  (10.1f))
Notes: Has so far looked pretty decent on his two completed starts after being brought down on his much anticipated hurdling debut. The same connections had a useful horse in Walkon who went a very close second in this race last year but I can’t help but think that despite his two victories to date over timber he is a little short in the betting market for such a tough race.

Carlito Brigante
4-y-o Gelding
Haafhd (9.0f) — Desert Magic (IRE) (Green Desert (USA) (7.9f))
Notes: Has gone pretty much under the radar until his impressive success in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh last weekend. A fair sort on the flat hovering around the 70s, he has transformed after a below-par debut in heavy ground over hurdles. A very easy winner over the highly regarded Alaivan next at Leopardstown in the Grade 2 Juvenile Novices Hurdle, he then dispatched of his rivals in electric fashion at Musselburgh last weekend. At the present stage this looks the most likely winner to me, he is battle hardened and has clearly shown a liking for better ground (something which he’ll get on the last day) and is bound to be bang there.

Secant Star
4-y-o Gelding
Passing Sale (FR)  (12.0f) — Effet De Star (FR) (Grand Tresor (FR )  )
Notes: Fell on his hurdling debut, but made amends in taking style last time out drawing clear and winning easily by seven wickets. However one thing that worries me is his lack of racing experience and with him falling already, perhaps the hustle and bustle of the Triumph Hurdle might be too much for him at this stage? He is currently a 10/1 best priced chance with Ladbrokes and William Hill, and at those odds I’d rather look elsewhere.

Alaivan
4-y-o Gelding
Kalanisi (IRE)  (11.8f) — Alaya (IRE) (Ela-Mana-Mou  (12.3f))
Notes: Quite possibly the classiest flat recruit on offer in this race but the way he was put in his place by Carlito Brigante last time gives me no real reason to suggest he can reverse the form at Cheltenham. His trainer Edward O’Grady suggests the horse often runs a little ‘keen’ and didn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead the last day, and I don’t think you can get away running like this at Cheltenham so he’ll need to learn to settle. Undoubtedly has the potential to be a classy recruit, but at 12/1 (PaddyPower) isn’t one which catches my eye.

Pittoni
4-y-o Gelding
Peintre Celebre (USA)  (10.4f) — Key Change (IRE) (Darshaan  (11.7f))
Notes: Still an entire and the Charles Byrnes trained colt has done nothing wrong over hurdles to date, and has improved with each start. Last time out he showed a decent turn of foot to put the race to bed over the Noel Meade trained Cross Appeal (sporting the first-time headgear) and put himself firmly in the Triumph Hurdle picture. A decent recruit on the flat winning off a mark of 86, he ended his campaign on a mark of 95 and with that experience and his three victories over hurdles he looks to be a major player. Generally a 16/1 chance.

Sang Bleu
4-y-o Gelding
Lavirco (GER)   — Formosa (FR) (Royal Charter (FR )  (12.0f))
Notes: Rumours are this wasn’t quite right when second at Chepstow well beaten, and there has been some market support for this Paul Nicholls inmate over the last couple of days. Royal Mix is another interesting recruit from the Paul Nicholls stable, and rumours are abound that Pistolet Noir isn’t even the best in the Nicholls bunch. Sang Bleu is available at 33/1 with Betfred and should run a decent race in the Triumph all being well.

Notus De La Tour
4-y-o Gelding
Kutub (IRE) — Ridiyla (IRE) (Akarad (FR ) (10.8f))
Notes: Has some solid formlines over in France and finished his French campaign with a facile twenty length success over Spring Silver (who has since come out and won). He then came to England to David Pipe and put away the highly touted Nicky Henderson runner Ranjobaie, who has since won decisively over 19f at Market Rasen, beating Bygones Of Brid who has solid form in the book. The Triumph Hurdle looks an ideal race for this French bred who doesn’t lack for experience nor stamina and he is overpriced at 25/1 (Ladbrokes or PaddyPower) amongst others.

Verdict:
This is definitely one of the toughest races to go through to try and find a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, however if sometimes you give it a go, you may just find that winner. I’ve come to a decision that CARLITO BRIGANTE is the horse to be with, he’s improving rapidly and the better ground will work to his advantage, no stamina issues and should be half the price he is now. Of the remainder there has been some good money for the unraced Super Kenny, and the others I have already mentioned all have solid chances, however one worth a small shekel is the Paul Nolan trained Point Of Light. A former smart flat recruit for Sir Mark Prescott, he is unraced over hurdles thus far but is race-hardened and collected a 6-timer on the flat during the summer over middle distance trips – so stamina is assured. He has a hurdling date pencilled in for the 13^th Feb at Gowran Park and should he win that impressively, then the 50/1 (General) on offer wont be around for long and is worth a chance at those odds. Another worth adding into the antepost mix would be Notus De La Tour for the David Pipe team who looks vastly overpriced at 25/1 based on his achievements to date.

1pt win – Carlito Brigante @ 9-1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pt win – Notus De La Tour @ 25-1 with Ladbrokes or PaddyPower
0.25pt e/w – Point Of Light @ 50-1 with PaddyPower or William Hill or Bet365

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 15 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in (although Kasbah Bliss last year was a minor blip).

With Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns out the line-up this year, it has made room for the new guard with hot favourite Big Bucks scaring off the likes of Diamond Harry (who has now gone chasing) and a few others.


Big Bucks
7-y-o Gelding
Cadoudal (FR)  (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux  (10.1f))
Notes: Has shown a real liking to hurdles since being switched back to them after an in-different jumping campaign when first brought across the water from France. An impressive winner of the World Hurdle last year, the big strapping son of Cadoudal has continued his dominance over the staying hurdler division by racking up wins in the Long Distance Hurdle, and the Long Walk Hurdle both at Newbury. He is currently a short priced favourite and a horse they all have to beat but at the prices is no value whatsoever to the punter at this stage.

Karabak
7-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi  (12.8f) — Mosstraye (FR) (Tip Moss (FR )  (12.0f)
Notes: Is regarded by Tony McCoy as the chief threat to Big Buck’s this year but I really can’t see it. In fairness he ran a good honest race last time at Newbury but Big Buck’s ran a lacklustre and workmanlike race to win that day, and he’ll only improve. Whereas I’m not sure Karabak has the real scope to improve much further than already shown. I think at the prices there are a couple more horses which represent more value for their price.

Sentry Duty
8-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi  (12.8f) — Standing Around (FR) (Garde Royale  (11.2f))
Notes: Is somewhat short in the betting considering he won a three runner egg and spoon race last time out over 21F, and is untried at this sort of trip. The only two other times he has tried this trip has resulted in 13L and 55L defeats and placings well down the field. He is unexposed over this trip and could well improve for the extra trip but I’m not so sure and feel at his current price of 14/1 (William Hill) he has a lot more question marks over him than many.

Tidal Bay
9-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA)   — June´s Bride (IRE) (Le Moss (12.4)
Notes: A horse I backed on the advice of a good judge I know, I’ve backed this horse for this race at around 40/1. I topped up again at 25/1 on the morning of the Cleeve Hurdle and also backed him for the Cleeve at 14/1. For a trainer such as Howard Johnson to bring Tidal Bay back to hurdles when he has in the past trained another prolific staying hurdler in the shape of Inglis Drever speaks volumes for me. He was a decent second to Massini’s Maguire in the Ballymore in 2007 and has since ran respectably over fences for his connections. His last victory in the Cleeve Hurdle was impressive in that he jumped impeccably and travelled supremely well for the staying hurdler. He at this stage is the biggest danger to Big Buck’s and one I expect a big run from.

Time For Rupert
6-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA)   — Bell Walks Run (IRE) (Commanche Run (11.6f))
Notes: Is an improving sort for the Paul Webber stable and ran a race full of credit behind Tidal Bay in the Cleeve Hurdle giving away 4lbs. His form over the staying trip reads a respectable 112, with a victory in a handicap at Cheltenham off 145 in December. He clearly has a liking for the course and will be racing of level weights with Tidal Bay come March. He is a big price at around the 25/1 mark and I’d favour him to be much more competitive in this than a few of these.


Verdict:
In what looks an interesting renewal of the World Hurdle, it should pay to side with the Howard Johnson trained TIDAL BAY who looked a rejuvenated sort when back over hurdles last weekend. I have already taken some larger prices about him but feel the 9/1 currently available is still to big for the talented son of Flemensfirth and he should be more around the 5/1 mark. Time For Rupert is another who catches my eye and is worth a small each-way saver at around the 25/1 mark.

1pt win – Tidal Bay @ 9-1 with Ladbrokes or William Hill
0.25pt e/w – Time For Rupert @ 25-1 with PaddyPower or William Hill