Not a bad day yesterday in betting terms and another winning preview for the website as Mikael D’Haguenet did the business in good style under Ruby Walsh. He’s a horse with very solid form in the book and should develop into a classy chaser next year. In my haste leaving for work I forgot to add an each-way pointer about Some Present, although at 33-1 I’m sure those of you backed it went each-way, he ran a mighty race in defeat but let’s face it, the winner Dunguib was an easy and facile winner – he looks a top class prospect for next year.

Today holds the third day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting and I have to say this looks one of the hardest festival cards I’ve encountered. Only two real races scream out as betting opportunities and the remainder are all trappy handicaps where one of many can potentially win, we’ll see though.

The first race on the card is the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase (1:30) and has some smart recruits challenging for this prize. Words are out in force for Northern Alliance but trainer Tony Martin has yet to train a winner in 2009 and the stable form is lacking in earnest. That doesn’t mean he can’t land a touch with this one though, and has been trained with this in mind. One that does interest me is Exmoor Ranger, and providing he brushes up his jumping ahead of this run he has the potential to go very close, stamina laden and doesn’t mind the surface he’s a smart sort and unexposed off his current mark, Christian Williams knows him well. Quws Law if returning to form could run a race at a price (66-1) and is worth looking at for a small each-way interest. Finally Tranquil Sea has to be respected for Edward O’Grady after making an impressive debut he’s since struggled, but the better ground here could be the key. If you are playing this race, PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

Next on the list is the Pertemps Final (2:05) and yet another hard race to find the winner of. Solid words doing the round for the Jonjo O’Neill trained Synchronised and the stable could hardly be in better form at the festival. The Sliotar was fancied when last seen at Cheltenham but failed to run his usual race, and could return to form under Danny Cook taking the 5lbs off. However the one that catches my eye, and probably for sentimental reasons is Blue Shark. Returned from a long layoff with injury at Sandown in December and despite being well supported in the market dropped away tamely after running fresh. Next time he was still cruising when hampered by the fall of another runner, and last time failed to fire. Cheltenham is a track that will suit this horse, and off a mark of 130 is dangerous for this smart horse. Dominic Elsworth takes the ride and holds a 19% strike-rate riding hurdlers for owner Trevor Hemmings, I’ve had an each-way bet on this at 25-1.

Third up the Ryanair Chase (2:40) and a race that is really at the mercy of classy recruit Voy Por Ustedes for trainer Alan King. Once quick enough to winner a Champion Chase, Voy Por Ustedes ran with credit in both the Betfair Chase and King George so will have no problems staying this sort of trip. Our Vic winner of this race last year is back at his ideal distance, and can put a lacklustre performance behind him shown on his return at Kempton last time, Timmy Murphy gets on well with the son of Old Vic, and it’d be great to see him go close again after backing him last year. Tidal Bay has gone here after swerving the Queen Mother, but quite if he gets this trip in top company is still uncertain in my view, memory of his Arkle victory is still fresh in the memory and if reproducing that effort will go very close. Imperial Commander looked good in the Paddy Power and has been lightly campaigned since; a return to Cheltenham will be suited to this horse and both Monet’s Garden and Gwanako have to be given a mention. I’m going to give Imperial Commander another chance over a distance that will suit and now that the Twiston Davies team have returned to form he can bounce back into the winners’ enclosure.

Next the World Hurdle (3:20) and this should be pretty much straight forward for Kasbah Bliss, and the classy French recruit can show that impressive turn of foot to settle this in a matter of strides, my preview on that can be read here.

The Freddie Williams Festival Plate (4:00) is next on the card, and Ferdy Murphy’s Three Mirrors can be expected to go close, trip and ground in favour and is decently weighted to collect. PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

1:30 – Exmoor Ranger
2:05 – Blue Shark (EW)
2:40 – Imperial Commander (EW)
3:20 – Kasbah Bliss (NAP)
4:00 – Three Mirrors (EW)

Popularity: 25% [?]

Some rumours emanating from the Irish shores suggested that the Irish would struggle to get more than four winners on the board this festival, so Irish eyes must be pleased to already have four on the board after day one with plenty of promise still to come this week. The Irish currently hold a lead of (4-2) over Britain, or England as I like to call them, and that could even be 5-1 if you wish to count Jonjo O’Neill as Irish.

I also don’t get the slating McCoy has taken for his ride on Binocular, the horse had every chance to go by up the run in but just wasn’t good enough and didn’t quicken as well as expected. It could well have been the ground but I suspect Binocular is more of a flat-track bully and will return to dazzle us at Aintree next month. McCoy is best judged on his super human effort aboard Wichita Lineman in the handicap earlier on the card, that ride was simply outstanding and I can safely say I haven’t seen many better than that. Back to the Champion Hurdle, the horse to take out that race is Celestial Halo, he was approximately twenty lengths ahead of the Supreme Novices three out, yet they finished at almost exactly the same time. To run at that searching pace, and lie up with it at the front, for as long as he did and then find more when the front runners dropped away and challengers came aplenty was an outstanding effort – I’d underrated his ability before now, but I won’t be caught out again.

Today looks tough as expected really but there are a few opportunities to be had, particularly in the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) and you can read my piece on that by clicking here.

The first race National Hunt Chase (1:30) really is as tough as they come to decipher and could be won by almost anything in the field. I’ve had a small interest on the bottom horse Tank Top; trained by Tom George the stable really couldn’t be in better form at the minute, and the ground is predicted to suit this staying prospect. He has it to find at the weights strictly speaking but is still unexposed over fences and is worth chancing a couple of quid at such ludicrously large odds. Coe also ranks highly on my list but he has shown in previous efforts he has a tendency to clout a couple en-route to completing and that could be costly round here but that said, I do fancy his chances.

Hopefully after Mikael D’Haguenet has won the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) we’ll be on a roll by now, possibly with the snare of Tank Top hitting the frame at large odds, and the RSA Chase (2:40) is another tricky race to choose anything with any real confidence. Ruby Walsh has jumped ship to ride Cooldine of Willie Mullins, who has a tall reputation. What A Friend is in the race for Paul Nicholls (who has won this two of the last three years), Sam Thomas takes the ride on that one. Killyglen is unexposed also and improved on his debut effort by smashing a fair sort in Chief Dan George up at Ayr when last seen and has to be respected, but let’s not forget Massini’s Maguire who goes well round here having won a Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (in 2007) for Phillip Hobbs. Massini’s Maguire has come back well from injury and two fair place efforts latest should put him bang right for this, I worry that he’ll stay the trip but reports circulating this morning suggests he’s going to run a very big race. I’ve thrown a few quid at Siegemaster after being informed late last year this was a horse with considerable potential and the first time I backed him was when his saddled slipped when beaten by Trafford Lad. Put away last time by Casey Jones in an oddly run affair I’m not sure Siegemaster run his race that time, and the three month break will have freshened him up for this, Davy Russell rides and Cheltenham looks made for this fellow – I’m on at 25s.

Next up is the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:20) and it’ll be a question of how far Master Minded is going to win by, but that doesn’t mean he’s bombproof just yet, and even if he is his price really doesn’t interest me in the slightest. I’ve chanced Big Zeb for Colm Murphy, a horse that is held in the highest regard by his trainer and a horse who’s shown improved form this term. He would have won again last time but for a silly fall when having the race at his mercy, and at 12-1 I couldn’t resist an each-way poke. I’ve also had a stab at the Paddy Power W/O Master Minded Market, you can bet on this by going to the website.

On our list next is the Coral Cup (4:00) joy! A race in which I painfully remember JP Magnier having an absolute ton in hand on Rhinestone Cowboy in 2003, and still couldn’t win. Thankfully I can sleep safe in the knowledge he isn’t riding my fancy again this time round but it doesn’t make this race any easier whatsoever. Basically I’m of the opinion that almost anything can win this, with the exception of probably my fancy Kirbybroguelantern, who has been primed with this race in mind I think with a latest effort on the flat. He’s unexposed over this trip and looks well weighed on his form off 131, he came fourth here as a Novice behind I’msingingtheblues and clearly has ability. I wouldn’t begrudge Lough Derg a victory if he can carry that welter burden to victory, I kind of hope he can because it’d be a massive buzz roaring him up the hill, but off 163 in this competitive handicap, I doubt it. The Polomoche too has to be respected for inform duo Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

After that puzzle, we’re set another in the shape of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle (4:40) which on first glance looks like negotiating a maze. There are so many potentially well handicapped horses in this race it’d be suicidal to go in with any conviction. Noises round here suggests Miss Sarenne will take all the beating in this (I’ve taken 20-1 Antepost) and despite a fall last time Tony McCoy believes this filly has what it takes to be there at the finish and advised his retained JP McManus to snap her up ahead of the festival. Since then he has added her to his string of annual festival purchases, and her price has tumbled into as low as 13-2. If playing this race, Paddy Power are 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS).

Finally the Champion Bumper (5:15) and my money has probably all faded away by now but I live in hope that I’ve at least had a winner, possibly two but that’d be greedy – wouldn’t it? This should be renamed the Willie Mullins Benefit Race, and once again he has half the field entered in this big national hunt flat race. Sicilian Secret is reported to be his main hope, but I’m not so sure, and big words are coming for Dunguib, who’s looked impressive to date but I’m going with Some Present who is held in high regard at the Thomas Mullins stable, and looks a large price in the context of this race. I’ve taken some 40-1 with Boylesports. If you are having a bet in this race, then take advantage of the Paddy Power offer of 1-2-3-4 (1/4 ODDS).

Selections
1:30 – Tank Top (EW) -
2:05 – Mikael D’Haguenet
2:40 – Siegemaster (EW)
3:20 – Big Zeb (EW)
4:00 – Kirbybrougelantern (EW)
4:40 – Miss Sarenne (EW)
5:15 – Some Present

Popularity: 21% [?]

The Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race in the United Kingdom for four-year-old and above novices. It is run over a distance of 2 miles 5 furlongs (4,225 metres) on the Old Course at Cheltenham Racecourse during the Cheltenham Festival in March. There are ten hurdles to be jumped in the race.

The race was introduced in 1971 as the Aldsworth Hurdle and the name was changed in 1974 when the insurance company Sun Alliance began sponsoring the race. It became the Sun Alliance Novices’ Hurdle, which was altered to Royal & SunAlliance Novices’ Hurdle after the merger of Royal Insurance and Sun Alliance in 1996. The race has been run under its present sponsored title since 2007 and is registered as the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle.

Theresa bit of history for you taken from Wikipedia, and now I’m going to try and find you the winner, so far we haven’t done too badly with our other previews, snaring an each-way about Kalahari King who failed by the narrowest of short-heads, and Quevega doing the business in emphatic style at our advised 3-1 price.

China Rock
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A decent second behind Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Go Native two outings ago over a trip short of his best. Despite the result only reading a 1.75L defeat by the former now Cheltenham Champion it could have been alot more given the ease of the victory, but an impressive turnout next time saw China Rock beat the respectable yardstick in Baltiman by 25 lengths, but could have been counted a little lucky after favourite Head Of The Posse fell when coming to mount a challenge under David Casey. Paddy Power has him priced up at 22-1 and looks to have about that much of a chance here, but could surprise with the conditions underfoot soft.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

Diamond Harry
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Unbeaten in six starts to date the gelded son of Sir Harry Lewis has shown top class form to date and comes here with an excellent chance of extending that winning streak. An impressive defeat of the more experienced Junior (A horse who finished 1.5L third off 133 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.) at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle reads very well in the context of this and the race he won last time at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day is a good indicator as a rule for this race with Wichita Lineman winning in 2007 and had Tidal Bay, Massini’s Maguire (first and second in that season’s Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle) and Osana all behind. Trainer Nick Williams has his string performing with credit and Timmy Murphy (who has ridden him to all six victories) retains the ride on this impressive sort and he ought to go close.
PaddyPower Price: 9-2

Junior
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse that has been firmly put in his place by Diamond Harry and Cape Tribulation on his latest two efforts, despite his respectable third off 133 in last year’s Coral Cup lacks the class needed to land this event. Will run its usual race in defeat but is likely to find almost half this field too strong.
PaddyPower Price: 33-1

Karabak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The first string from the Alan King stable and the horse that Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton would have been riding had it not been for JP McManus snaring this smart staying prospect shortly before the festival. With that it means his retained jockey Tony McCoy takes over in the saddle and he won’t find a better prospect to jump on than this. A horse that was outpointed on hurdles debut behind the class yet huge Mad Max but showed considerable promise in running a gallant second to that rival (who re-opposes here) before taking the scalps of the once highly-regarded Mahonia from the Paul Nicholls camp, en-route to further success and this time a seriously impressive one when disposing of some useful rivals at Ascot. His latest effort put 20L between him and Somersby (who since ran third in the Supreme Novices today) and has to be hugely respected. The only worry for me with this would be the ground, the ground has looked plenty soft enough to my eye and he’s been exclusively campaigned on decent ground to date, and his older half-sister run her best races on Good racing ground.
PaddyPower Price: 7-2

Knockara Beau
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A real solid chance here for small northern trainer George Charlton. The Northumberland handler has a smart improving sort here and the six year old son of Leading Counsel made eye-catching late headway to wheel away from smart opposition over 18F at Kelso last time in Grade 2 Company. He looks a horse with a bright future over fences so anything he does in this sphere can be regarded a bonus. The extra distance here looks ideal and a course like Cheltenham will play to his strengths, as will the ground and the uphill finish. He merits plenty of respect and is worth keeping on side at the current double figure odds.
PaddyPower Price: 18-1

Mad Max
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A huge stamp of a horse and well regarded by Team Henderson, this large animal is unbeaten in all four starts today and recorded his fastest postmark in soft conditions last time. I still believe he’s a horse that prefers better ground than what he’ll most probably encounter here tomorrow and looks every inch a chaser in the making. That said the Henderson team are in great form at the moment and Barry Geraghty is in top form riding two winners at The Festival so far. Holds Karabak on Ascot form when the pair last met, that rival has since progressed as has Mad Max, so it’s shaping up to be an exciting race.
PaddyPower Price: 6-1

Mikael D’Haguenet
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse which has shown impressive form since his arrival from France and another held in very high regard by Willie Mullins. The word from the Emerald Isle is that this horse is expected to collect here and after his latest effort over a trip short of his best, in despatching the fair Donnas Palm (a horse who’d earlier finished a 0.25L second to Hurricane Fly) it looks like they could be right about this one. Donnas Palm was then beaten 45L when finishing last to Hurricane Fly when they met again, he’d had a hard race the first time against that rival and his jumping went to pot. The Hurricane Fly form looks awesomely strong at present, with both Go Native (Supreme Novices) and Quevega (David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) franking it with flying colours. Mikael D’Haguenet also dispatched of the well regarded Pandorama by 7L when the pair met last, a horse who was still travelling well when Cousin Vinny departed company at the last when the latter two met ahead of The Festival, overall the form looks very strong. Add to the fact that Ruby Walsh has jumped on board this instead of the Paul Nicholls trained The Nightingale and you have a strong fancy from camp Cheltenhamtips.
PaddyPower Price: 3-1

Quwetwo
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: This will be one for the measurement stakes as to who is the biggest horse out of Quwetwo and Mad Max, I’m sure the tape measures will be out in force ahead of their intended assignment. The former Sue Smith trained gelding destroyed a moderate field in a Newcastle bumper at a rather handsome 7-1 on return from a break and it’s with a smug smile I type that because a close friend of mine had given me ‘the nod’ to get onboard that day, so he holds a special place in my heart after that bank boosting effort. He then switched hands to Howard Johnson for a princely sum and moved to new owner Graham Wylie, and despite that he was still able to go off at a backable price (9-2) on hurdles debut where once again he galloped them into the ground. He then won again at Ayr in an egg and spoon race in a fitness tune-up for this assignment. He looks to have the possibilities of going very well here for a strong team but I feel this horse will be more a chaser than a hurdler, and perhaps will get outpaced at a vital stage in this contest.
PaddyPower Price: 16-1

Realt Dubh
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held on form by Mikael D’Haguenet and is also held through the Cousin Vinny/Hurricane Fly line of form. Is unexposed over this trip but doesn’t look to have it in the locker to serve it up to the principles in this contest and at best could sneak a potential place.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

The Nightingale
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Paul Nicholls has a fair sort here in The Nightingale who has shown decent form in the book to date. A good second in a Grade 2 bumper behind Mad Max he made his hurdling debut at Exeter before slipping on the run-in and awarding Shalone the race. Shalone would probably have won anyway, but it was good to see the Cadoudal gelding get back on his feet looking none the worse for that, and made light work of his opposition when next seen at Taunton – and the second has since racked up a double in Handicap Company and looks to be improving. No doubt he has plenty to find to mix it with the very best here, but he has a capable pilot in Christian Williams on board and Paul Nicholls wouldn’t throw him in at the deep end if he didn’t think he was capable of producing.
PaddyPower Price: 12-1

Verdict: Another mind-bogglingly hard race to assess but I just think it’ll pay to side with the form choice MIKAEL D’HAGUENET now that Ruby Walsh has been confirmed to ride this French bred. Willie Mullins has his string in good heart having already had a winner in Quevega running away with the Mares Hurdle. This horse represents a similar form line to that mare, and is worthy of plenty respect.

2pt win – Mikael D’Haguenet @ 3-1
0.25pt each-way – Knockara Beau @ 18-1

Popularity: 19% [?]

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is run at Cheltenham racecourse as part of the Festival In March, it is a novice race for five year olds and above.

The race distance is two miles with twelve fences to be jumped on the old course.
This race will probably be one of the toughest the contenders have run, and for many it will be the first time they have attempted the four and a half foot fences in a race.

When looking to back a horse here it can be quite a daunting task, mainly due to the lack of experience these novices have, obviously the odds will suggest which is a popular bet and which is not but it can turn into a guessing game.

Perhaps instead look at the trainer records, Alan King and the Pipe stables have dominated this race in recent years so look carefully at any contenders from their stables.

Also horses with some chasing experience that shows their ability to jump at speed, this race will test the horses’ capabilities to the full and only the very best will prevail here and go on to become top class chasers.

Key Arkle Trends
* 20 of the last 21 winners finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts
* French bred horses have won 7 of the last 14 renewals
* Just one winner has started at over 10/1 in the last decade
* Only one horse over the age of seven has won since 1990

Bringbackthebiff
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Beaten behind some fair sorts over three miles two runs ago, he recorded a win over 18 furlongs last time out on heavy ground. The form of the race doesn’t have an overly strong look to it, and Willie Mullins who saddles Golden Silver in this race has a line through this via Captain Conflict who was a close second to the Edward O’Grady trained gelding.

Calgary Bay
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The Henrietta Knight trained gelding has some solid form in the book and has looked a chaser with a future on starts to date. He started off a good second to I’msingingtheblues over two miles at Doncaster before winning over 21 furlongs at Cheltenham staying on strongly to beat Kicks For Free and Tartak in a good quality contest – the form of that looks particularly strong in the context of this race. Then an outing to Ascot when second to Panjo Bere over 17 furlongs, he got outpaced at the business end of the race and was done for speed on the run to the line. Cheltenham will be more suitable for this lovely chasing type; however I can’t help but feel he’s in a similar mould to Racing Demon who found two and a half miles his best trip.

Cheating Chance
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: A once well regarded individual when trained by Nicky Richards, he made the switch to Andrew Turnell after a string of disappointing efforts and has since thrived. He collected a handicap chase and a novice chase at Ascot before being soundly put in place the last twice, most recently when behind Planet Of Sound who re-opposes here.

Cornas
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An improving sort from the Nick Williams stable who run his best race to date when a fast finishing second to Gauvain at Sandown. The line came just in time for the Charlie Mann trained individual but I feel Cornas can reverse form here with the Cheltenham hill working in his favour. He certainly is a big price for this race and is worthy of respect, although he’ll probably find one or two just too good for him on the day.

Follow The Plan
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: An Irish invader from the Oliver McKiernan stable who lowered the colours of favourite Tatenen when giving the Paul Nicholls inmate 11lbs and a beating in the Grade Two novices event at Leopardstown two runs ago. He failed to reproduce that form on heavy ground last time when soundly beaten behind Golden Silver but the forecasted better ground should suit this horse in the Arkle. He is off level terms with Tatenen who in theory he should hand out another beating to, and John Cullen the jockey of Follow The Plan has aired his confidence in doing so in a Cheltenham Preview evening.

Forpadydeplasterer
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse who I really think is seriously overrated from the Thomas Cooper stable, and has always shaped like a staying chaser in my eyes, just not particularly a top class one as expected. A good friend of mine who is respected as a judge thinks the Arkle is his race and strongly fancies him for it. It just cements how easy it can be to form different opinions about the same horse, but one of us will be wrong, hopefully it isn’t me!

Gauvain
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Charlie Mann’s gelding landed the odds last time at Sandown when fending off the late burst from Cornas. He made his debut in a chase at Lingfield when winning with consummate ease before falling when going extremely well at Fontwell. The form of his latest effort when winning looks decent but I just feel he lacks the requisite class to get involved in the business end here, and Cornas will be better suited to Cheltenham.

Golden Silver
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Willie Mullins gelding won effortlessly in a standard chase at Navan before improving rapidly to take the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown latest when fighting off Forpadydeplasterer in heavy ground. Paul Townend looks set to take the ride once again and should be thereabouts but once again I can see one or two being too strong for the Willie Mullins gelding.

I’m So Lucky
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has picked up a couple of small prizes along the way and a fair second placed effort behind Planet Of Sound back in December, however other horses around him are improving and I just wonder if this horse can continue to improve on what he’s already shown. My guess is his hand is already shown and will finish midfield.

I’msingingtheblues
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Holds good chase form to date having being only of only two to lower the colours of Calgary Bay over fences thus far, and has shown a likeable attitude to fight back when under pressure in his races. Has good course form and has good form over the distance. The son of Pistolet Bleu has shown on many occasions to have a high cruising speed and that could prove vital in a fast paced race such as this and could make the frame at a large price under Christian Williams.

Kalahari King
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held in very high regard by Ferdy Murphy, a trainer who has a knack of getting his horses to peak at The Festival. This horse did well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle when fourth behind Captain Cee Bee and has shown an excellent turn of foot and alacrity in his jumping abilities. This horse has been trained to peak in this race and I really fancy this one with ground conditions to suit.

Made In Taipan
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a good level of form over fences to date and returned to winning ways in good style last time out after a defeat at the hands of the Willie Mullins trained Jayo. That was on soft ground and with the forecast rain apparent ahead of the first day of the Festival; the sticky ground could well not be to the liking of Made In Taipan despite him winning on heavy last time.

Original
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An absolutely massive horse that showed improved form on that he’s shown in France when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton when last seen. Is expected to continue that improvement but I wonder if he’ll be good enough to mix it with the big guns, especially if the rain gets into the turf. I think he’s a horse that needs good racing ground.

Panjo Bere
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Did the business at Ascot when lowering the colours of Calgary Bay but came unstuck last time out at Sandown. I think Panjo Bere is a horse that prefers a flat track and thus will come unstuck once again at Cheltenham. He’s a decent horse don’t get me wrong, but I think he’ll struggle in this.

Planet Of Sound
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a liking from the larger obstacles and has always been held in high regard by the Phillip Hobbs team. His latest effort when putting to bed some useful rivals in French Opera and Song Of Songs, the latter who has won twice since looks solid form. The ground won’t really be a problem to this son of Kayf Tara and I can see him getting involved at the finish and will be thereabouts.

Tartak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Trainer Tom George has his string firing on all cylinders at the moment and it couldn’t come with better timing heading into The Festival. Tartak has shown good form over fences and the drop back in trip should suit this French bred gelding, as will any ease in the ground conditions.

Tatenen
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Seriously well regarded by the Nicholls camp and create a big impression when destroying a fair field over C&D on chasing debut. However he came unstuck at Leopardstown when second to Follow The Plan when in receipt of 11lbs from the latter. He doesn’t get the allowance anymore here and has to face more battle hardened rivals off level weights. That said Ruby Walsh has kept faith and the money has continued to come in recent days and has to be a major player in this given his impressive show here two runs ago.

Verdict: In what looks an open and poor renewal for this race it should pay to side with KALAHARI KING each-way. The Ferdy Murphy trained gelding has been trained with this race in mind and has been kept fresh ahead of this assignment. He is quick and nimble over his fences and possesses a devastating turn of foot when needed and looks the value in the race. Of the remainder Tatenen is the obvious choice, along with Planet Of Sound but it would be unwise to count out Cornas who could run a race at a big price of around

1pt each-way Kalahari King @ 10-1 with Paddy Power
0.25pt each-way Cornas @ 33-1 with Paddy Power

Popularity: 18% [?]

PADDY POWER CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING PREVIEW

PADDY POWER MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
YOUR COUSIN VINNY!
Get Your Festival Off To A Supreme Start If favourite Cousin Vinny wins the Supreme Novice Hurdle Paddy Power will refund all losing single and each way bets on this race.Terms & Conditions:

Applies to win and each-way markets only. Singles only. Max Refund €300/£200 per customer/bet. If Cousin Vinny doesn’t run offer will revert to the SP Favourite. Paddy Power racing rules apply.

PADDY POWER WILL BE OFFERING DAILY SPECIALS THROUGHOUT THE FESTIVAL


PADDY POWER’S CHELTENHAM SPECIALS

A FAIR WIND FOR PUNTERS
Cheltenham was nearly blown off course last year with winds of up to 50mph forcing the cancellation of racing on the Wednesday. In another world betting first from Paddy Power the bookie is betting on the breeze. Will a fair wind blow for punters this year?

Results will be verified by British Weather Services.

Which day of the Festival will be the windiest (strongest gust)
2/1 Tuesday
11/8 Wednesday
3/1 Thursday
9/2 Friday

What will be the highest recorded wind gust during the 4 days of the Festival
6/1 Below 30 mph
4/1 30-35mph
11/4 36-40mph
5/2 41-45mph
9/4 +46mph

What will be the highest recorded wind gust on the first day of the Festival (Tues 10^th Mar)
8/1 Below 30 mph
10/3 30-35mph
5/2 36-40mph
9/4 41-45mph
3/1 +46mph


PADDY POWER’S GUINNESS SPECIAL
Like the Guinness, Paddy Power’s betting on The Black Stuff is the original draught compared to other pale imitators. Once again Paddy Power are betting on how many pints of Guinness are drunk at the four day Festival. Will the credit crunch quench punters’ thirsts or will they ride above the doom and gloom and celebrate in their usual style?

How many pints of Guinness will be consumed at Cheltenham Racecourse over the 4 days?
9/4 Less than 175,000 Pints of Guinness
4/1 175,000 – 195,000 Pints of Guinness
5/2 195,001 – 215,000 Pints of Guinness
3/4 215,001 – 235,000 Pints of Guinness
4/1 Over 235,000 Pints of Guinness


THE CHELTENHAM ROAR
The Cheltenham roar is one of sport’s spine-tingling moments, but what level of decibels will it reach for the famous opening race cheer.

What Will Be The Decibel Level of The Famous Cheltenham Roar?
8/1 Less than 90 dB (traffic levels)
4/1 90-100 dB (motorbike)
9/4 100-110 dB (powersaw)
3/1 110-120dB (loud rock concert)
4/1 120-130 dB (pneumatic drill)
8/1 130-140 dB (jet engine, gun blast)
12/1 Over 140dB
(Opening race on Tuesday 11^th March, decibel level as recorded from betting ring by Paddy Power)


WORLD’S WORST GAMBLERS
They’ve been labelled as some of the worst gamblers in history but now some of them have plenty of time on their hands in retirement . Which financier will show his face first at the Festival?

First to be seen at Cheltenham
9/4 Fred Goodwin (RBS)
3/1 Eric Daniels (Lloyds)
4/1 Sir Tom McKillop (RBS)
9/2 Lord Stevenson (HBOS)
6/1 Andy Hornby (HBOS)
12/1 Alistair Darling
20/1 Gordon Brown


RACING SPECIALS

8/1 Paul Nicholls to train the first three home in the Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls number of Winners
15/8 Two or less
11/10 Three to Four
5/2 Five or more

Master Minded Winning Distance
2/1 Up to and Incl seven lengths
5/1 Eight to ten lengths
7/4 Eleven lengths or more

Top Jockey
11-10 R Walsh; 7-2 AP McCoy; 7 B Geraghty; 8 R Thornton; 20 T Murphy, R Johnson; 25 P Carberry, D Russll, D O’Regan, S Thomas; 33 P Brennan

Top Trainer
8-11 Nicholls; 4 Mullins; 5 Henderson; 8 King; 10 Pipe; 20 O’Neill; 33 Hobbs; 40 Meade; 50 Johnson, Twiston Davies

Number Of Irish Winners
4/1 Up to and including three
5/1 4 winners
4/1 5 winners
4/1 6 winners
11/2 7 winners
11/4 8 or more winners


MAJOR RACE ANTE-POST LATEST
Tuesday – Champion Hurdle
6-4 Binocular; 9 Celestial Halo; 10 Osana; 12 Crack Away Jack; 14 Katchit; 16 Sublimity, Ashkazar; 18 Sizing Europe; 20 Jered; 25 Punjabi, Sentry Duty, Brave Inca, Harchibald; 28 Whiteoak; 33 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Tuesday – Champion Hurdle w/o Binocular
5 Celestial Halo; 11-2 Osana; 7 Crack Away Jack; 8 Katchit, Sublimity; 9 Ashkazar; 12 Punjabi, Sizing Europe, Jered, Harchibald; 14 Brave Inca, Sentry Duty, Whiteoak; 16 Muirhead, Won In The Dark; 20 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Wednesday – Queen Mother Champion Chase
1-3 Master Minded; 4 Voy Por Ustedes; 10 Big Zeb, Petit Robin; 12 Tidal Bay, Well Chief; 16 Twist Magic; 20 Briareus; 40 Tamarinbleu; 50 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Wednesday – Queen Mother Champion Chase w/o Master Minded
11-4 Big Zeb; 7-2 Petit Robin; 4 Tidal Bay, Well Chief; 5 Twist Magic; 6 Briareus; 14 Tamarinbleu, Mahogany Blaze; 25 Ashley Brook, Santa’s Son; 33 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Thursday – Ladbrokes World Hurdle
11-10 Kasbah Bliss; 7-2 Punchestowns; 5 Big Buck’s ; 11 Fair Along; 20 Blazing Bailey, Catch Me; 25 Mobaasher, Duc De Regniere, Lough Derg, Powerstation; 33 Nenuphar Collonges, Tazbar, Pettifour, Mighty Man; 40 Hardy Eustace, P’tit Fute, Shakervilz; 50 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Friday – Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
7-4 Kauto Star; 5 Neptune Collonges; 6 Denman; 8 Madison Du Berlais; 10 Exotic Dancer; 16 Albertas Run, Barbers Shop; 20 Big Buck’s, Star De Mohaison; 25 Air Force One, War Of Attrition; Imperial Commander; 40 Halcon Generlardais; 50 Bar

¼ odds 1, 2, 3Please note prices are subject to fluctuation.

Popularity: 18% [?]

Popularity: 15% [?]

We are roughly just 4 weeks from the festival and in this weeks Newsletter I’m giving you my views on this years Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup. I will be taking a look at all the horses remaining in the lists and I will give you my views on them individually. There are 28 horses left in this years feature, but with a maximum of 27 still standing to run.

I will advise you three bets in total, a main bet, a saver and a bet without the front three in the betting. I hope you enjoy the feature and remember you can order our full Cheltenham Preview guide for just £25 where you will receive your daily preview the night before racing as well as receiving up to the minute tips on course from our paddock judge.

The Field

AIR FORCE ONE

5th in last season’s Sun Alliance and then collected in style at Market Rasen & Punchestown. This season he hasn’t quite got it together jumping poor when it mattered when defeated by Roll Along and again he failed to get his jumping together when well beat in the King George. Hugely promising run in the Hennessy in between when a couple of errors couldn’t be blamed for his defeat but his jumping remains his downfall. Could go well at long odds if he gets his jumping together but remains a big If and plenty to prove on his Kempton showing. Does seem happier going left handed however. Best Price 33/1

ALBERTAS RUN

Decent novice last season who seemed to lose his way this season before respectable effort when chasing home easy winner Kauto Star in the King George, however recent effort when well beaten by Madison Du Berlais was more like his performances early in the season and he is becoming a frustrating sort. He would have outside claims on his novice form but seems to have lost his way now and cant be recommended on any of this seasons form. Best Price: 20/1

ARTEEA

Not ran for around a year and best run came when beating Foreman in a 2m 4f Clonmel Chase last February and was then found wanting in Grade Two company. Stamina not proven and level of ability far from the level required in this class. Best Price: 500/1

BABRERS SHOP

Impressed with his attitude to stay on strongly when 2nd in the Paddy Power in November and then saw off the likes of Roll Along and Battle Cry in a respectable field at Sandown in December. Missed the King George because of a setback and whilst reported back on song now, he still has to improve a good 10 – 15lb to have any sort of claims in this. Yet to totally prove he will get 3m 2f on a demanding track such as this. Best Price: 16/1

CERIUM

Former useful 2m chaser for Paul Nicholls but gradually regressed over the past two years. Changed hands for 18,000 Gns in the spring at Doncaster and has no real place in a race of this standard over a trip he has a very slim chance of staying. Best Price: 1000/1

DENMAN

High class novice two season’s ago and the best horse in training last season when an unbeaten chaser and easy winner of this race last season. Much was made of a heart defect in the summer and his return at Kempton recently was deemed rather disappointing. He was never jumping with his normal enthusiasm and looked beat a long way out. Trainer quick to defend that he is a far different horse left handed and will come on for the run but it remained a disappointing run which saw him drift from 17/10 – 5/1 in the betting markets. Obviously far too early to write him off and if you do still have faith in him then you are getting great value at a buying money ew price. He is one I would want on my side in the race but after his last run I couldn’t possibly advise him as a main selection. Best Price: 5/1

EXOTIC DANCER

Has improved from each run this season and was an easy winner at Leopardstown in December. Many people claimed he would have only been 2nd had Neptune Collonges not fallen but I’m not totally sure. He was never really going in last season’s Gold Cup but he looks back to his best this season. The year eh chased home Kauto Star he was harassed by loose horse from three out all the way until he jumped the last and I’m a firm believer that this cost him any chance of getting a serious cut at Kauto Star. He’s one of those if the ground was testing I wouldn’t write off at a decent price and think he will certainly shake up the front three in the betting. Best Price: 12/1

HALCON GENELARDAIS

Grand staying type who was near on gifted the Cotswold Chase when Joe Lively made a bad mistake at the 2nd last but he was found out up the hill and was done for a change of gear. Serves his connections well and ran a good race in last year’s Gold Cup, whilst he always seems to give his showing in staying handicap chases. Likely to be running on again this year but had to see him having the pace to get involved where it matters. Best Price: 50/1

IMPERIAL COMMANDER

Impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November but then was bitterly disappointing when tailed off tackling 3m for the first time in the King George in December. Hard to see him staying 3m 2f around here on that evidence and would have been more interesting if campaigned for the Ryanair. Also worth noting that the yards horses seem to have gone out of form lately now. Best Price: 40/1

KAUTO STAR

Talented and much loved seasoned chaser who dispelled his critics with a mind blowing display in the King George winning it for the 3rd time. A real smart horse on his day he collected the big prize two season’s ago when seeing off his rivals with some smart leaps before making his customary error at the last. His display at Haydock earlier this season can be ignored given his trainer has expressed his concerns with the horse at the track, but I’m not sure I would be getting carried away with the manner of his Kempton win. He comes into this season’s Gold Cup in good form, but I would be worried about his stamina if the ground came up testing and if Denman can bounce back he may struggle to form that form around. With Neptune Collonges a year older he also rates a serious danger and that’s without considering the new horses appearing equal dangers. 2/1 simply doesn’t represent value for me, although you cant doubt his natural ability. Best Price: 2/1

KNOWHERE

I fancied him at long odds in last season’s Gold Cup after his polished success in the 2008 Cotswold Chase but he never really got into the race. Returning after a break he was a good winner of the Old Roan at Aintree taking advantage of some of his rivals lack of peak fitness but he had to dig deep that day showing true guts. Found out in the Hennessy subsequently he looks one of those horses that despite being decent is just found out at the highest level. Chances he could be better over slightly shorter than this and hard to see him staking any claim in this years renewal. Best Price: 100/1

MADISON DU BERLAIS

Much improved chaser this season proving his class with a fine victory in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury. Proved that effort was no fluke with a solid display in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton seeing off former Gold Cup favourite Denman and emerged a player for the Gold Cup on that evidence. However he has never really got involved previously at Cheltenham and he was no match for Knowhere in last season’s Cotswold Chase despite having previously run well behind Denman in a Hennessy. The value in this horse for the Gold Cup has near on gone in my opinion and whilst I would accept he beat Denman partially on merit last time I would argue that 8/1 with the big three and 7/4 without is simply no value. He likes to race handily in his races and I just don’t think Cheltenham is the type of track to suit him. He hasn’t always been error free either and whilst David Pipe is in better form this and could have turned the corner, I like value in my betting and for a horse that is prone to a bad mistake now and again, 8/1 for a Gold Cup is not good value. Best Price: 8/1

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE

Model of consistency who was seen to his best winning the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup and the Welsh National last season. Jumping looked a bit suspect this year but bounced back with a fine effort on Saturday at Haydock and dug deep for his rider in 3rd. Stays well and is a decent handicapper who handles most grounds but hard to see him good enough to get involved in a Gold Cup and whilst he is likely to give his best he needs to improve considerably. Best Price: 150/1

MILAN DEUX MILLE

Former decent handicap chaser but lost his way lately and has plummeted down the weights. Another with absolutely not chance at this level. Best Price: 500/1

MY WILL

Ran a smart race when a staying on 5th in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Madison Du Berlais in November and it was a run you could take a lot of confidence from. Looks an absolute natural for the Grand National for me and it may be connections will protect his mark for that by running in this rather than one of the handicaps at the festival but the William Hill Chase or the Kim Muir would be totally ideal for him in my book. I don’t think he’ll be disgraced in the Gold Cup and I think he could easily be 6th or 7th or something along those lines. Best Price: 100/1

NEPTUNE COLLONGES

Improving chaser last season who was a courageous 3rd in the Gold Cup just getting run out of 2nd late on by Kauto Star. Looked sure to go close when tipping up at Leopardstown around Christmas time and looked good this afternoon when dotting up in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Always travelling smartly he jumped very well and quickened up impressively when asked to do so by Ruby Walsh. Handles most ground and whilst he probably wouldn’t mind it testing he is definitely a big improver this season and looks sure to throw it down to Kauto Star and Denman this year. On the current form he is the one of the Nicholls main trio I would most want to be on and Christian Williams should suit this improving grey gelding. He is a big player in my book. Best Price: 6/1

NOTRE PERE

Welsh National winner who showed an improved effort when chasing home Neptune Collonges in the Irish Hennessy today and plugged on well to hold a comfortable 2nd. Was off the bridle a long way out however and looks the type that will either need testing ground or a stiffer test of stamina to have any chance in a Gold Cup but to me looks a horse that could be interesting in a staying chase like the Bet Fred Gold Cup at the end of the season. Similar to Halcon Generlardais in that he should be staying on well but probably not good enough to get in the frame. Best Price: 25/1

NOZIC

Impressive in a handicap beating a likely non stayer in Tidal Bay but found out next time on really testing ground at Cheltenham against Joe Lively and Halcon Generlardais. A good handicapper on his day who can go well fresh but needs to improve to get involved here and has a lot to prove at this level. Best Price: 150/1

OUR VIC

Very talented on his day but better claims would come in the Ryanair, a race he won last season. Impressed with his attitude when beating Kauto Star at Aintree and a tough enough horse to always run his race. Seems to be more straightforward now and with Madison Du Berlais looking a better chance for the yard it would be no surprise to see him go for the Ryanair. Never jumping well on his return in this season’s King George and was pulled up when tailed off 3 out. Clearly better than that effort but lack of a run before the Gold Cup / Ryanair could stand against him. Hard to fancy. Best Price: 100/1

ROLL ALONG

One of my favourites and a tough good jumper. Yard has not been in the greatest of form this season but showed his ability when a strong finishing 2nd in last season’s Royal Sun Alliance Chase. Came back this season with an impressive win at Ascot and bypassed the Hennessy. Disappointing to see him look very one paced next time at Sandown when unable to ever really get a blow into the winner Barbers Shop and his jumping let him down a bit. No show at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase when weakening from 4 out and was eventually pulled up. Off 155 the handicapper still has him on a fair mark (4L winner off 149) and I would be more interested in him in something like the William Hill Chase. He is a horse I want on my side, but the yard form does somewhat worry me and I would be more inclined to look out for him in a handicap when the yard gets back in form. Hard to fancy at this level on current form. Best Price: 100/1

SNOOPY LOOPY

Tough and consistent chaser who owes his connections nothing after the season he has given them with some fine efforts in some decent races. However form has tailed off the last twice and whilst he will be fresher when he lines up for this, he looks a horse that is in the grip of the handicapper and outclassed at this level. He probably has had enough for the season as well and is not one I would consider. Best Price: 100/1

SNOWY MORNING

Modest 2nd to Neptune Collonges at Punchestown in April but fomr gone off the radar since and jumping fell apart at Punchestown behind Noland. Was beat when falling at Leopardstown in December behind Exotic Dancer and he looks to have completely lost his way. He is hard to have any confidence in at present. Best Price: 100/1

STAR DE MOHAISON

High class novice in 2006 but been plagued with injury since and return to racing was short lived last season. Has improved with each run this season and just got outdone on soft ground up the hill in a good dual with Mon Mome in December. Travelled like the best horse in the race in the Cotswold Chase but on very testing ground but failed to pick up from 2 out and was looked after having jumped the 2nd last. Has continued to keep impressing at home and with a dry spring expected, the ground could really come to suit him come March. He needs good ground to be seen to his very best and if the ground dried out to be on the slow side of good, or even better, good ground full stop then this horse is not out of it. He looks the type who could now bounce back to his former promise and the odds of 33/1 after two promising efforts over fences when not on his ideal ground are very encouraging. 7/1 each way without Denman, Kauto Star and Neptune Collonges also looks rather big and knowing he is a good jumper, stays the trip and enjoys it around Cheltenham he is one that should not be written off just yet. Best Price: 33/1

STATE OF PLAY

Winner of the Charlie Hall at the start of the season but that form is somewhat suspect and he was well beaten in handicap company behind Nozic and Tidal Bay next time out. This is a major step up in class from the handicappers he has been running in and has been found wanting over this trip in both his runs around here. Yards horses do go well when they are fresh but he faces a massive uphill task back against the best 3m chasers in the country. Best Price: 250/1

THE LISTENER

Former decent chaser but has really lost his way this season and fell at Leopardstown over Christmas. Showed a bit more this afternoon when ridden prominently for a long way but weakened once headed and folded tamely. Looks a shadow of the chaser he formally was and is best watched from now on. Best Price: 150/1

THYNE AGAIN

Fair form over shorter trips but well held today in the Irish Hennessy when trying 3m for the first time today and form needs to improve to have any sort of chance at this level. Very hard to fancy. Best Price: 200/1

WAR OF ATTRITION

2006 Gold Cup winner who has had his setbacks since but has been running well this season in some cracking races. Outpaced behind Noland over 2m 4f at Punchestown and then ran a solid race when 20L 2nd to Exotic Dancer over Christmas at Leopardstown and would have only been 3rd but for Neptune Collonges falling. Clearly not the same horse that won the Gold Cup 3 years ago but still capable of running a fair race. Likely to give his supporters a good run for their money at the right price but very hard to see him getting involved in the finish on what he has shown this season. Best Price: 40/1

Summary:

The ground can be dependant on the outcome for me and on faster ground I would rather Kauto Star to Neptune Collonges as the main threat to a back to his best Denman but there must be some doubt on whether the 2008 winner is as good as he was on the back of his disappointing display at Kempton.

So many of these have been in and out of form this season and Exotic Dancer, Barbers Shop and Halcon Generlardais are sure to always run their usual sound race.

War Of Attrition looks gone to me but you can take some encouragement of Exotic Dancer through his form. However all that does is boost the claims for Neptune Collonges who if there is ease in the ground will really make Kauto Star pull out all the stops up the hill.

For me though you can’t discount Denman, one race doesn’t necessarily mean a horse is gone and even his trainer is speaking as if he may not have been as fit as he thought and he was keen to suggest he will be a better horse when going left handed. He has drifted to a price where you can only see him as value, it really is a no brainer, if he comes back to his best or within 10lb of his best he will win, and at 5/1 he is one I would want to save on.

Madison Du Berlais was attractive around 14/1 and 12/1 after he crossed the line at Kempton, but now as short as 8s you have to ask one question, and that is do you believe Denman ran anywhere near his best ?, if you believe he was no where near his best then you have to accept that Madison Du Berlais was actually flattered and that 8/1 is far too short. On the other hand you could feel it was more a polished performance from Madison Du Berlais rather than a poor one by Denman, if that is the case 8/1 looks big. Either way this ship has sailed and left me well behind and on that ground I have to discount him. It’s the safe view in my opinion. However I must look for value and at 7/4 without the big three he is not actually value. As you are betting him to finish 4th. My point would be is 7/4 value against Exotic Dancer with overall better form who is around 7/2 and then you can bring in Notre Pere at 7/1, or even Barbers Shop at 7/1. It really is close, and for me I would be a layer of Madison Du Berlais in the without the big three market around the 7/4 mark.

I will be looking against Kauto Star in the win market and for me my main bet pretty much hinges on the ground. I want good ground as I feel STAR DE MOHAISON is a class horse on better ground and I feel he would have won at Cheltenham in a handicap had the ground been quicker. For me he travelled up like the best horse in the race last time and came there looking the winner but the ground saw him run out of it and looked after. He is a safe jumper and also stays well so for me on faster ground the ew value is with him. He was a seriously impressive winner of the Sun Alliance in 2006 and when he returned that winter he did look a leading player for the 2007 Gold Cup. He has shown enough to me to suggest that he hasn’t lost his ability and at 33/1 in the main market and 7/1 in the without the big three market he certainly offers value.

Advised Bets

STAR DE MOHAISON – 1.5PTS 33/1 EW

NEPTUNE COLLONGES – 0.75PTS EW 6/1

STAR DE MOHAISON – 1PT EW @ 7/1 (without the big three market)

MADISON DU BERLAIS – LAY TO WIN 10PTS @ 7/4 (without the big three market)

Well I hope you have enjoyed my Gold Cup Ante Post preview.

Good Luck

Popularity: 17% [?]

The World Hurdle is regarded as the feature race of Day 3 of the Festival. Some top quality horses have won this race in years gone by and non more so than Inglis Drever who sadly wont be in the line-up bidding to win a fourth World Hurdle, I don’t think it’ll be quite the same without the gallant stayer thundering up the hill to the roars of many but we can only look forward to another and its down to something else to reign supreme over the distance.

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in. This year I have singled the race down to the following participants;

Kasbah Bliss
Punchestowns
Fair Along
Big Buck’s

The horses above are the four I think will be fighting it out at the business end of the race, and I’m now going to expand on what my choice will be and why, but first it’s time to go through the form of the horses shortlisted.

Kasbah Bliss
7-y-o gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Marital Bliss (FR) (Double Bed (FR) (13.6f))
Notes: Most notably a gallant performance here last year behind Inglis Drever and some would argue he should really have won with a better jockey on board. The Kahyasi gelding has done nothing but improve over the summer and after hacking up in a handicap, he then won the Prix Gladiateur (G3) at Longchamp clocking a rating of (96) in the process before a fantastic effort when fourth beaten little over a length in the Prix Du Cadran (G1). Rested since Francois Doumen has hinted his gelding has added more muscle to his small but powerhouse frame and has grown into his shape a lot more, he believes he’s the finished article this time round, and there’s no Inglis Drever around to stop him.

Punchestowns
6-y-o gelding
Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA))

Notes: A well regarded individual from the Seven Barrows team who came to England with a lofty reputation and did the business at Sandown first time up over hurdles. Punchestowns was rumoured to be going chasing this year and his first run of the season was a pipe-opener for his intended career over larger obstacles, however he decided to hose in off 139 in what looked a competitive race on paper, not contempt with that he proceeded to destroy decent opposition en-route to an 11-length success in the Long Walk Hurdle (G1) at Ascot. Heavy ground can be blamed for his defeat to Big Buck’s last time, as can the pull of 8lbs Big Buck’s was getting from Nicky Henderson’s likeable chestnut. Punchestowns looks set to play a major role in the World Hurdle and with the ground likely to be better than the Heavy he contested the Cleeve Hurdle in, he can reverse form with Big Buck’s but whether he’ll be good enough to defeat Kasbah Bliss remains a mystery.

Fair Along
7-y-o gelding

Alkalde (GER) (11.0f) — Fairy Tango (FR) (Acatenango (GER) (11.0f))

Notes: A gallant and sound inmate from the Phillip Hobbs yard, Fair Along is the sort of horse you’d love to have as an owner, a small horse with a massive heart. Fair Along has won over 16f and he’s won over 25f (2M and 3M1F for those not clear on the furlong per mile ratio). A winner of top decent handicap prizes at the course he put a sterling effort in to finish third behind both Punchestowns and Big Buck’s when last seen in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The heavy ground quite possibly didn’t do him any favours that day and he held every chance turning for home. When headed he battled on bravely to hold third and there’s a chance he could be better suited to better ground come the Festival. His Cheltenham form reads: 132302113 and is very much a course specialist. He holds every chance of making the frame in the World Hurdle and is worth close consideration.

Big Buck’s
6-y-o gelding

Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f))
Notes: A French import and expensive purchase, Big Buck’s came over with a big reputation and a big future in the game. The workmanlike gelding has done well over fences for Paul Nicholls and arguably would have gone very close in the Hennessy Gold Cup but for falling when closing down. Big Buck’s did the business over hurdles next time and that run had to be a confidence boosting as his jumping is renowned to be a little chancy. Winning so well like he did Paul Nicholls gave his charge another chance over the smaller obstacles and made the most of an 8lb pull in the weights with Punchestowns to secure an impressive victory in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The son of Cadoudal also showed a liking for heavy ground and conditions couldn’t not be as favourable to him come Festival time and although he holds massive claims, he’d be one I wont back from the list above.

Verdict:

After going through the form and looking at the above I’m going to side with KASBAH BLISS who has the benefit of a break after three very pleasing efforts on the flat. A repeat of any of those last two efforts is good enough to see him win at Cheltenham and Francois Doumen is the master at producing his festival hopefuls to peak performance and he can follow in the footsteps of the legend Baracouda and secure another victory for France.

3pts win – Kasbah Bliss

Paddy Power are offering 5/2.

Popularity: 14% [?]