We are however back for another edition of our ‘Free Prize Giveaway’ for our visitors to Cheltenhamtips.co.uk

Rob Milsom and Ryan Tahmaessbi were out two competition winners in our third competition of the week, and we will continue now onto Competition 4 with a view of finding another winner for our competition.

The prize for this competition is tickets for FOUR people to attend the Cheltenham Festival on Friday 19th March (Gold Cup Day) which amounts to a total of £300 to be given away.

Rules

Answer the three questions below related to stars of The Festival past and present, and leave your answers along with your Name and Email, along with your answer in the comment box at the bottom of this article.

The winner will be announced at 10am Wednesday morning and then be notified by email to find out where we send the prizes too.

The winner will be one person only, who will get to distribute the four tickets as they see fit to family/friends and enjoy The Festival.

1) Paddy Power is currently offering all money back on those betting against Dunguib, should Dunguib win the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Which horse did Paddy Power do the same offer to last year in this very race?
2) In his career Tony McCoy has only ridden one winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, what was the name of the horse he rode to victory for Noel Chance back in 1997?
3) The Triumph Hurdle is always a fast and furious race but which trainer has the best record in the race with four wins?

All comments will be held for moderation until half an hour before the deadline on Wednesday, so if you have already entered and you can’t see your entry below then please don’t submit another go as we already hold your initial entry.

That’s all you need to answer, all correct entries will be drawn out of a hat at random, whereby the first person drawn will be the winner.

Good luck & Thanks for visiting

The Cheltenhamtips Team.

Once again we are giving away TWO prizes in our competition, and you only have to enter once for a chance to win either of the prizes which will be drawn from a hat at random tomorrow.

Rules
Answer the three questions below related to stars of The Festival past and present, and leave your answers along with your Name and Email, along with your answer in the comment box at the bottom of this article.

The winner will be announced at 12pm tomorrow afternoon (Thursday 4th March) and then be notified by email to find out where we send the prizes too.

Prize 1:
Two tickets for the Club Enclosure of Cheltenham Racecourse for Thursday 18th March (Day 3) of the Cheltenham Festival, for the total value of £130.00.

Prize 2:
Once again GallopScout.com have offered our competition winner a free month subscription to their successful tipping service, so you can sample just exactly what they have to offer and get their premium tips for nothing – exclusive to Cheltenhamtips.co.uk competition winners only!

To enter the competition with a chance of win either of the prizes above, all you have to do is answer the three questions below correctly and follow the procedure outlined in the rules above.

1) The Ryan Air Chase has recently thrown up some smart winners, but which Paul Nicholls trained horse won the inaugural running of the Grade 1 back in 2005?
2) In 2004, Baracouda was going for his third World Hurdle in a row, but which Jonjo O’Neil trained grey put a stop to his reign?
3) The RSA Hurdle (Now Neptune Novices Hurdle) has been won by some smart horses in the past, but which Irish trained horse won this race back in 2003 – and then dropped back in trip to win two Champion Hurdle’s?

All comments will be held for moderation until half an hour before the deadline tomorrow, so if you have already entered and you can’t see your entry below then please don’t submit another go as we already hold your initial entry.

That’s all you need to answer, all correct entries will be drawn out of a hat at random, whereby the first person drawn will be the winner.

Good luck & Thanks for visiting

The Cheltenhamtips Team.

As this is competition two we are giving away TWO prizes, and you only have to be entered once for your chance to win either of the two.

Rules
Answer the three questions below related to stars of The Festival past and present, and leave your answers along with your Name and Email, along with your answer in the comment box at the bottom of this article.
The winner will be announced at 12pm tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday 3rd March) and then be notified by email to find out where we send the prizes too.

Prize 1:
Two tickets for the Club Enclosure at Cheltenham Racecourse for Wednesday 17th March (St Patricks Day), to the value of £130.00 along with a £50 free bet courtesy of Cheltenhamtips.co.uk to be placed by us on the horse of your choice.

Prize 2:
We have been in talks with a very successful tipping service with a big following on Facebook and a proven track record. They have offered a one month free membership to their exclusive service GallopScout.com and through Cheltenhamtips.co.uk – you can get their very best tips for absolutely nothing!

To enter the competition with a chance of win either of the prizes above, all you have to do is answer the three questions below correctly and follow the procedure outlined in the rules above.

1) In a thrilling finish to the 2000 Champion Chase, Tony McCoy drove Edredon Bleu all the way up the hill to get up in a thriller. However who was the trainer of the favourite, who finished back in third?
2) What was the name of the horse David Nicholson trained to win the Champion Chase in both 1994 and 1995?
3) What is the name of the horse that fell at exactly the same fence (2 out) in the Champion Chase in both 2002 and 2003?

All comments will be held for moderation until half an hour before the deadline tomorrow, so if you have already entered and you can’t see your entry below then please don’t submit another go as we already hold your initial entry.

That’s all you need to answer, all correct entries will be drawn out of a hat at random, whereby the first person drawn will be the winner.

Good luck & Thanks for visiting

The Cheltenhamtips Team.

This competition is for two tickets to the Cheltenham Festival (Day 1: Tuesday) for the Club Enclosure and to the value of £130.00.

Do you want to go and witness the flag go up on the first day of the four day bonanza at Cheltenham or to hear the roar as the tapes go up and the runners charge towards the first flight in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Who is going to win the Champion Hurdle? Do you want to go and see it unfold live in the great atmosphere of Cheltenham?

Here is what you need to do…

Answer the three questions below related to stars of The Festival past and present, and leave your answers along with your Name and Email, along with your answer in the comment box at the bottom of this article.

The winner will be announced at 12pm tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday 2nd March) and then be notified by email to find out where we send the tickets to.

1) JP McManus had Binocular in this year’s Champion Hurdle until he was sidelined with injury, but what other famous Champion Hurdler carried the colours of McManus to victory at Cheltenham on no more than four occasions?
2) Go Native is on course for the £1M WBX Triple Crown bonus should he win the Champion Hurdle, but what horse came second to him at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle?
3) We all remember the great Moscow Flyer but can you remember the name of his great rival who won the Arkle Chase for Paul Nicholls back in 2003?

All comments will be held for moderation until half an hour before the deadline tomorrow, so if you have already entered and you can’t see your entry below then please don’t submit another go as we already hold your initial entry.

That’s all you need to answer, all correct entries will be drawn out of a hat at random, whereby the first person drawn will be the winner.

Good luck & Thanks for visiting

The Cheltenhamtips Team.

The total prize fund for this race stands at around £320,000. The race itself is the feature on the second day of the Festival (Wednesday) and is always filled with high quality entrants. Traditionally the field sizes for this race are smaller than some of the other big Festival races; however what we lack in quantity is made up for in quality, as the very best two-mile chasers do battle over the larger fences at break neck speed – a thrilling spectacle for the racing fan.

A general rule to follow in this sort of race are horses which are to the forefront of the betting market, as in recent years favourites have a very decent record in the race, as does previous Arkle winners, unfortunately this year Forpadydeplasterer looks to be out for the festival with lameness, but I wouldn’t of fancied him anyway.

This race has produced some fantastic memories down the line, and one in particular which sticks in my mind was when Edredon Bleu got up on the line to nail Direct Route in 2000. That was an absolute thrilling spectacle for me, and in memory of that I uploaded the race footage to YouTube, which you can view here: Champion Chase 2000.

The winner of the race for the previous two years Master Minded looks set to return from injury shortly and currently heads the market at 6/4. If he is back to his best like he was in 2008 then I doubt they’ll see which way he goes but with the problems he has had over the past few months, it’s hard to get excited about backing him at such a price, and therefore it should pay to look elsewhere.

Key Trends
All of the last 31 winners finished placed at worst last time out.
9 of the last 11 Arkle Trophy winners were 1st or 2nd in this race the next year.
26 of the last 28 winners started at single-figure odds.
19 of the last 25 winners had been placed at the Festival before.
Just one winner older than 10 since 1997.

With Master Minded in a bid to emulate Badsworth Boy (the only horse to have won this race three times) it is worth noting that Irish trained horses have a very respectable record in the race (19 from 50) and they last saddled the winner with Newmill back in 2006.

Master Minded
7-y-o Gelding
Nikos (9.7f) — Haute Tension (FR) (Garde Royale (11.2f))
Notes: An awesome winner of this race back in 2008, when slaughtering Voy Por Ustedes hard on the bridle. Looking back it could have been that Voy Por Ustedes was beginning his decline at the very top level (despite him reversing placings at Aintree next time). He was more workmanlike in his success last year but still won by seven lengths with Well Chief back in second. The form of his last run hasn’t worked out well at all, with both Well Chief and Mahogany Blaze getting beaten on all starts since (they finished in-front of him). This in part would be down to a fractured rib found on his right side two weeks after the race. He is due to run on Saturday in a weak renewal of the Game Spirit chase and that should tell us more, but I’m not willing to get involved at this stage at 6/4.

Twist Magic
8-y-o Gelding
Winged Love (IRE) (14.7f) — Twist Scarlett (GER) (Lagunas (11.0f))
Notes: Has obviously improved slightly this year with two big margin successes going right handed, Twist Magic has thrown himself firmly into the Champion Chase ring with those wins, however I can’t have him at all. His record round left handed track reads a measly 1 from 8 (that’s a conversion of 12%). Compare that to his right handed form of 9 from 15 (60%) and you notice quite a difference. We can also factor in that he has looked a suspect stayer in the past and I believe he is a horse who just about gets the two-miles, so an uphill finish like at Cheltenham will certainly stretch him. His jumping also had a tendency to be a little erratic and over these fences you will more times than not come unstuck. Add in that in 12 races he has been ridden by someone other than Ruby Walsh, he has only won twice (Compared to Ruby’s 7 wins from 10). You have to think that Ruby Walsh will opt for Master Minded should he come through his race okay on Saturday, thus rendering Twist Magic’s case useless come Champion Chase day?

Well Chief
11-y-o Gelding
Night Shift (USA) (8.0f) — Wellesiena (GER) (Scenic (9.9f))
Notes: Is certainly best kept fresh and looks to be heading to the festival without a run since January which fits into that trend. However he appears on the downgrade after an excellent comeback last March his form has got progressively worse and that’s the reason why he is now 33/1. Should the break revive him given his record on the track (8 Runs, 3 Wins, 4 Seconds) then there is every chance he’ll fill the frame at a large price, but I can’t get excited about his chances I’m afraid.

Kalahari King
9-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Queen Of Warsaw (FR) (Assert)
Notes: Its amazing looking at his profile that he is already 9 years old! This is a horse I hold in very high regard and have done since he first came over to England. He has taken to fences very well and his performance last time out was seriously impressive, considering he wasn’t fit, needed the run, and wasn’t going to be given a hard race and thus drifted markedly in the betting (*cough* Mr Murphy). Two solid runs at the Festival in the past (4th in the Supreme Novices to Captain Cee Bee & 2nd in the Arkle to Forpadydeplasterer) suggests this type of big race is right up his street and after advising him at 10-1 for the race last year, I feel somewhat obliged to tip him again, given how he’d of won with another stride last year.

Big Zeb
9-y-o Gelding
Oscar (IRE) (15.2f) — Our Siveen (Deep Run (13.4f))
Notes: Is a horse which goes well fresh and has had issues with his jumping in the past. If you look back at last years Queen Mum, you’d have seen he was still in there pitching and travelling well when coming to grief 4 out. He then ran Master Minded to within a head at Punchestown, before an electric comeback run at Navan in November beating decent horses with consummate ease. He then went to Sandown for the Tingle Creek and despite going off a well backed favourite, he never looked happy on the track and finished a well beaten fourth. The race may have come too soon after his comeback run, but he was back to form at Punchestown winning the Cottage Chase (Grade 2) with ease almost two weeks ago and looks to head to The Festival in great shape.

Barker
9-y-o Gelding
Mister Mat (FR) — Drumrawn Lass (IRE) (King´s Ride (14.0f))
Notes: Is very much an unknown as to how good he actually is. Started off in modest company and failed to land a blow and was then transferred to Willie Mullins who has appeared to have produced some sort of magician act into turning this gelding into a serious champion chase contender. He easily beat last years Arkle winner at Punchestown off level weights by 15 lengths, and then was travelling well on his return in December when unseating his rider behind Joncol in the John Durkan. Quite how good he is nobody knows but he is certainly a ‘dark horse’ for this championship race and his ability to stay further than two miles is a big plus in what is usually a fiercely run race. Quite whether he is good enough remains to be seen but the quotes of 25/1 doing the rounds is quite appealing to small stakes.

Petit Robin
7-y-o Gelding
Robin Des Pres (FR) — Joie De Cotte (FR) (Lute Antique (FR))
Notes: Looked quite a smart horse when making his debut over fences at the back-end of 2008, and ran a race full of credit at The Festival when third to Master Minded. He has since been touted a couple of times for the RyanAir chase, so it remains to be seen which race he’ll actually go for. I’m sure if he learns to brush up his jumping he could be a real player in the Champion Chase but I’d guess there will be one or two just too classy for him, so sticking him in the RyanAir could well be a wise move by connections.

Verdict:
In what looks sure to be a fast and furious renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase, it could pay to side with BIG ZEB again, who appears to have brushed up his jumping somewhat and rates a value choice against the short, but ultimately imperious Master Minded. Kalahari King was one I was interested in, but his current odds of 6/1 does little to inspire me considering I backed him at 10s for last years Arkle, and although I wish him well – I wont be on this year. Barker is the unknown quantity in the race, and he could literally be anything (although I assume Ruby Walsh has a handle on him), he could be worth a cheeky small stakes play at 25/1 (SportingBet) and is worth adding in as cover.

1pt win – Big Zeb @ 7-1 with Ladbrokes, William Hill or PaddyPower.
0.25pt e/w – Barker @ 25-1 with SportingBet.

With this race being for four-year-olds only, it has often pointed to inexperience to being a problem in the past. Although in recent years with more horses coming off the flat to contest this race it has been less of an issue.

2007 victor, Katchit, was the first winner of this race since Kribensis in 1988 to go on to win the Champion Hurdle. On the whole, most winners tend to need much longer trips as their careers progress. Paddy’s Return, for example, became a top class staying hurdler, Katarino won the Fox Hunters’ Chase at Aintree over 2m 5½f two years in a row and, most notably of all, Commanche Court won the Irish National and was placed in a Gold Cup.

A few key stats worth taking on board for this race are:

13 of the last 15 winners won last time out.
11 of the last 16 winners started in the first 4 in the betting.
15 of the last 16 winners had won at least twice.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders which is usually horses with experience off the flat (or French bred) and rate prominently in the betting market.

With a few bubbles already been burst over timber this season, it should be an interesting renewal of the big four-year-old showpiece and hopefully I’ve got the winner for you.


Mille Chief
4-y-o Gelding
Ski Chief (USA)  (11.0f) — Mille Flora (IRE) (Be My Guest (USA)  (10.1f))
Notes: Has so far looked pretty decent on his two completed starts after being brought down on his much anticipated hurdling debut. The same connections had a useful horse in Walkon who went a very close second in this race last year but I can’t help but think that despite his two victories to date over timber he is a little short in the betting market for such a tough race.

Carlito Brigante
4-y-o Gelding
Haafhd (9.0f) — Desert Magic (IRE) (Green Desert (USA) (7.9f))
Notes: Has gone pretty much under the radar until his impressive success in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh last weekend. A fair sort on the flat hovering around the 70s, he has transformed after a below-par debut in heavy ground over hurdles. A very easy winner over the highly regarded Alaivan next at Leopardstown in the Grade 2 Juvenile Novices Hurdle, he then dispatched of his rivals in electric fashion at Musselburgh last weekend. At the present stage this looks the most likely winner to me, he is battle hardened and has clearly shown a liking for better ground (something which he’ll get on the last day) and is bound to be bang there.

Secant Star
4-y-o Gelding
Passing Sale (FR)  (12.0f) — Effet De Star (FR) (Grand Tresor (FR )  )
Notes: Fell on his hurdling debut, but made amends in taking style last time out drawing clear and winning easily by seven wickets. However one thing that worries me is his lack of racing experience and with him falling already, perhaps the hustle and bustle of the Triumph Hurdle might be too much for him at this stage? He is currently a 10/1 best priced chance with Ladbrokes and William Hill, and at those odds I’d rather look elsewhere.

Alaivan
4-y-o Gelding
Kalanisi (IRE)  (11.8f) — Alaya (IRE) (Ela-Mana-Mou  (12.3f))
Notes: Quite possibly the classiest flat recruit on offer in this race but the way he was put in his place by Carlito Brigante last time gives me no real reason to suggest he can reverse the form at Cheltenham. His trainer Edward O’Grady suggests the horse often runs a little ‘keen’ and didn’t enjoy being taken on for the lead the last day, and I don’t think you can get away running like this at Cheltenham so he’ll need to learn to settle. Undoubtedly has the potential to be a classy recruit, but at 12/1 (PaddyPower) isn’t one which catches my eye.

Pittoni
4-y-o Gelding
Peintre Celebre (USA)  (10.4f) — Key Change (IRE) (Darshaan  (11.7f))
Notes: Still an entire and the Charles Byrnes trained colt has done nothing wrong over hurdles to date, and has improved with each start. Last time out he showed a decent turn of foot to put the race to bed over the Noel Meade trained Cross Appeal (sporting the first-time headgear) and put himself firmly in the Triumph Hurdle picture. A decent recruit on the flat winning off a mark of 86, he ended his campaign on a mark of 95 and with that experience and his three victories over hurdles he looks to be a major player. Generally a 16/1 chance.

Sang Bleu
4-y-o Gelding
Lavirco (GER)   — Formosa (FR) (Royal Charter (FR )  (12.0f))
Notes: Rumours are this wasn’t quite right when second at Chepstow well beaten, and there has been some market support for this Paul Nicholls inmate over the last couple of days. Royal Mix is another interesting recruit from the Paul Nicholls stable, and rumours are abound that Pistolet Noir isn’t even the best in the Nicholls bunch. Sang Bleu is available at 33/1 with Betfred and should run a decent race in the Triumph all being well.

Notus De La Tour
4-y-o Gelding
Kutub (IRE) — Ridiyla (IRE) (Akarad (FR ) (10.8f))
Notes: Has some solid formlines over in France and finished his French campaign with a facile twenty length success over Spring Silver (who has since come out and won). He then came to England to David Pipe and put away the highly touted Nicky Henderson runner Ranjobaie, who has since won decisively over 19f at Market Rasen, beating Bygones Of Brid who has solid form in the book. The Triumph Hurdle looks an ideal race for this French bred who doesn’t lack for experience nor stamina and he is overpriced at 25/1 (Ladbrokes or PaddyPower) amongst others.

Verdict:
This is definitely one of the toughest races to go through to try and find a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, however if sometimes you give it a go, you may just find that winner. I’ve come to a decision that CARLITO BRIGANTE is the horse to be with, he’s improving rapidly and the better ground will work to his advantage, no stamina issues and should be half the price he is now. Of the remainder there has been some good money for the unraced Super Kenny, and the others I have already mentioned all have solid chances, however one worth a small shekel is the Paul Nolan trained Point Of Light. A former smart flat recruit for Sir Mark Prescott, he is unraced over hurdles thus far but is race-hardened and collected a 6-timer on the flat during the summer over middle distance trips – so stamina is assured. He has a hurdling date pencilled in for the 13^th Feb at Gowran Park and should he win that impressively, then the 50/1 (General) on offer wont be around for long and is worth a chance at those odds. Another worth adding into the antepost mix would be Notus De La Tour for the David Pipe team who looks vastly overpriced at 25/1 based on his achievements to date.

1pt win – Carlito Brigante @ 9-1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pt win – Notus De La Tour @ 25-1 with Ladbrokes or PaddyPower
0.25pt e/w – Point Of Light @ 50-1 with PaddyPower or William Hill or Bet365

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 15 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in (although Kasbah Bliss last year was a minor blip).

With Kasbah Bliss and Punchestowns out the line-up this year, it has made room for the new guard with hot favourite Big Bucks scaring off the likes of Diamond Harry (who has now gone chasing) and a few others.


Big Bucks
7-y-o Gelding
Cadoudal (FR)  (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux  (10.1f))
Notes: Has shown a real liking to hurdles since being switched back to them after an in-different jumping campaign when first brought across the water from France. An impressive winner of the World Hurdle last year, the big strapping son of Cadoudal has continued his dominance over the staying hurdler division by racking up wins in the Long Distance Hurdle, and the Long Walk Hurdle both at Newbury. He is currently a short priced favourite and a horse they all have to beat but at the prices is no value whatsoever to the punter at this stage.

Karabak
7-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi  (12.8f) — Mosstraye (FR) (Tip Moss (FR )  (12.0f)
Notes: Is regarded by Tony McCoy as the chief threat to Big Buck’s this year but I really can’t see it. In fairness he ran a good honest race last time at Newbury but Big Buck’s ran a lacklustre and workmanlike race to win that day, and he’ll only improve. Whereas I’m not sure Karabak has the real scope to improve much further than already shown. I think at the prices there are a couple more horses which represent more value for their price.

Sentry Duty
8-y-o Gelding
Kahyasi  (12.8f) — Standing Around (FR) (Garde Royale  (11.2f))
Notes: Is somewhat short in the betting considering he won a three runner egg and spoon race last time out over 21F, and is untried at this sort of trip. The only two other times he has tried this trip has resulted in 13L and 55L defeats and placings well down the field. He is unexposed over this trip and could well improve for the extra trip but I’m not so sure and feel at his current price of 14/1 (William Hill) he has a lot more question marks over him than many.

Tidal Bay
9-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA)   — June´s Bride (IRE) (Le Moss (12.4)
Notes: A horse I backed on the advice of a good judge I know, I’ve backed this horse for this race at around 40/1. I topped up again at 25/1 on the morning of the Cleeve Hurdle and also backed him for the Cleeve at 14/1. For a trainer such as Howard Johnson to bring Tidal Bay back to hurdles when he has in the past trained another prolific staying hurdler in the shape of Inglis Drever speaks volumes for me. He was a decent second to Massini’s Maguire in the Ballymore in 2007 and has since ran respectably over fences for his connections. His last victory in the Cleeve Hurdle was impressive in that he jumped impeccably and travelled supremely well for the staying hurdler. He at this stage is the biggest danger to Big Buck’s and one I expect a big run from.

Time For Rupert
6-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA)   — Bell Walks Run (IRE) (Commanche Run (11.6f))
Notes: Is an improving sort for the Paul Webber stable and ran a race full of credit behind Tidal Bay in the Cleeve Hurdle giving away 4lbs. His form over the staying trip reads a respectable 112, with a victory in a handicap at Cheltenham off 145 in December. He clearly has a liking for the course and will be racing of level weights with Tidal Bay come March. He is a big price at around the 25/1 mark and I’d favour him to be much more competitive in this than a few of these.


Verdict:
In what looks an interesting renewal of the World Hurdle, it should pay to side with the Howard Johnson trained TIDAL BAY who looked a rejuvenated sort when back over hurdles last weekend. I have already taken some larger prices about him but feel the 9/1 currently available is still to big for the talented son of Flemensfirth and he should be more around the 5/1 mark. Time For Rupert is another who catches my eye and is worth a small each-way saver at around the 25/1 mark.

1pt win – Tidal Bay @ 9-1 with Ladbrokes or William Hill
0.25pt e/w – Time For Rupert @ 25-1 with PaddyPower or William Hill

1:30- Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
A disappointing start for the stats, with selection Torphichen only finishing a distant 9^th to winner Go Native. To be fair the winner was not a total blip in the trends. At 6 years old he was the perfect age for a potential winner, and he won prior to this at Naas back in February. At 12/1 he was not totally out of reach of the 6/1 maximum odds that 50% of the previous winners went off at. In addition he came relatively close to winning both races before this Festival opener, beaten into second by Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown last January. Overall, not the most trend-busting winner ever, and certainly one to add into the calculations when compiling next year’s stats.

3:20- Champion Hurdle
Very nearly the first winner for the stats at the Festival came courtesy of Celestial Halo in the Champion Hurdle, who was beaten only a neck by 22/1 winner Punjabi. The winner was a mixed bag in terms of statistical data, lacking the previous Cheltenham experience and lto success to adequately enter initial calculations. That previous 3^rd at Wincanton did come within the 51 day period required, and Nicky Henderson’s charge had come third in this race a year earlier, however it was difficult to find statistical evidence to put up a valid argument for it being a likely winner. The statistical selection’s second place, at a nice e/w price of 17/2, is some consolation.

Day Two

1:30- National Hunt Challenge Cup
Tricky Trickster became the first horse younger than seven to claim the National Hunt Challenge Cup in twenty years as he came home 10 lengths clear of Drumcovis. In addition the seven year olds, who have won the last four renewals, could do no better than the favourite Can’t Buy Time, who finished 4^th. The favourite’s 4^th was also the best Jonjo O’Neill, traditionally successful in this event, could muster.

2:05- Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
As suggested in the preview, this Grade 1 hurdle was indeed contested by those prominent in the market, with all those occupying the places well inside the required SP of 12/1. In the end Mikael D’Haguenet made it 5 from 12 for the favourites (41%). Both the favourite and the next two home, Karabak and Diamond Harry, would have been on the shortlist given their previous form, price and age. The poor showing for 4 year olds continued, with 100/1 shot Ruthenose the first one home in a distant 9^th.

2:40- RSA Chase
Impossible to pick a firm selection from the available statistics prior to this, and in a high quality field, the favourite Cooldine prevailed by some considerable margin. His victory continued the trend which has now seen 7 or 8 year olds win 13 of the last 15 renewals (86%). His victory also extends the record of winners placing in their preparation race, which now stretches back 11 years.

3:20- Queen Mother Champion Chase
It was clear from the outset that Master Minded would be a comfortable winner, and so it proved, with Ruby Walsh guiding him to a solid if unspectacular 7 length victory. For the purpose of the stats we tried to find a viable alternative, and landed upon Scotsirish after Tidal Bay’s defection to the Ryanair Chase. Looking back it’s clear Scotsirish ran up to the best of recent form, finishing a creditable 5^th. He looked in contention at one point, but faded rounding the home turn.

4:00- Coral Cup
Another race which gave no stand-out selection, and one which saw 14/1 shot Ninetieth Minute narrowly beat Mirage Dore into second. The winner was well within the 11st maximum the statistics required, and was relatively unexposed. His trainer, the lesser known A J Taffe, was enjoying his first ever win at Cheltenham, and was a welcome change from the previously dominant four of Edward O’Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neil.

5:15- Champion Bumper
The poor record of 4 year olds in the Champion Bumper continued in 2009, with Latin America the first home in a distant 13^th. The eventual winner Dunguib made in 12 from 13 winners who have finished 1^st or 2^nd prior to running in the bumper (92%), and it was another success for Ireland, who have now won 11 or the last 13 renewals (84%). However it wasn’t such a successful race for Willie Mullins, who could only manage a best of 4^th with Quel Espirit, and whose strike-rate in this now drops to 46% from the last 13 runnings.

Day Three

1:30- Jewson Novices’ Chase
Kia Kaha flew the statistical flag in this one and was, after going off the 15/2 favourite, a disappointing 10^th, never jumping fluently throughout the race. The winner Chapoturgeon was well weighted, carrying the minimum end of that required statistically. He also had the required form, winning back at Doncaster at the end of January. That was his sole win prior to this, and as such he was suitably unexposed. The only thing that held him back statistically was his age, and his win brought first ever winning 5 year old, with all previous winners aged 7. He would certainly have been on the shortlist had he been slightly older, however with only four previous renewals of this race there is plenty of time for trends to be reshaped into more reliable patterns, and there will be many more winners like Chapoturgeon in years to come.

2:05 Pertemps Final Hurdle
The statistical selection, Syncronished was a faller at the last when well held, and never looked like threatening in all honesty. The eventual winner Kayf Armis was ideally aged to win this statistically, and his previous win now makes it 8 from the last 13 (61%) who were victorious coming into this event. He was, statistically, slightly light in the weights to make any apparent impact, and his win now makes it 3 from 12 (25%) who have won carrying less than 10-6.

3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
A race in which Kasbah Bliss was expected to dominate statistically, however he was no match for the powerful winner Big Bucks. The Nicholls trainer horse was certainly shortlisted prior to the race, as was 2^nd placed Punchestowns, however he was overlooked due to his previously poor Cheltenham form (7^th in the Jewson last year). Indeed he is only the 4^th horse in 13 runnings (30%) to have won this race without placing at the Festival the year before, and he is the first ever horse to win this without participating in previous renewals of it or the Supreme Novices’. He ticked all the other boxes, and was, in the end, a not unsurprising winner statistically.

4:00- Festival Plate
The first outright winner for the stats came courtesy of Something Wells, and, at 33/1, it was well worth the wait! His win with a rating of 139 now makes it 10 from 12 winners (83%) who won with an official rating between 128 and 141, and his previous experience in the Jewson (All be it as a faller), now makes it 16 of the last 18 winners (88%) who have done the same. At 10-7 he made it 12 of the last 13 winners (92%) who have now carried less than 11-3, and his 2^nd at Chepstow in February now means 9 of 13 winners (69%) have placed prior to winning the Plate. Martin Pipe’s recent good record ended, with 10^th placed Pablo Du Charmil the best he could manage.

4:40- Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The stats failed to adequately narrow down the field in this one, and as such we were left with Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan’s Future, That’s Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star. In the end it was Pretty Star who faired best, coming only a length behind winner Character Building. The winner became only the 5^th horse in 21 years to win carrying more than 11 stone (11-12!), and its official rating of 139 made him only the 3^rd winner in 12 attempts (25%) to defy the 128 ‘maximum.’ Whilst there was place form to his name (Last 3 runs red 933), it was difficult to see J Quinn’s charge winning this, and it was a definite bucking of the trends to finish day three.

Day Four

1:30- Triumph Hurdle
The final day, and one which started with another disappointing run from statistical selection Trenchant. Eventual winner Zaynar had run the required amount of times previously (4) and, by winning lto at Newbury, ticked a further two boxes. His SP was well within the 20/1 guideline at 11/2, however he had only previously won one race, that previously mentioned, and became only the 3^rd horse in 13 attempts (23%) to win with less than two wins previously. Furthermore his last preparation race came in December, far too late according to past trends. Indeed he became the first ever winner of the Triumph to do so with a preparation race before February.

2:05- Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Too many to choose from statistically in this so we’ll concentrate purely on winner American Trilogy, ridden superbly by the on form Mr Walsh. Paul Nicholls’ horse carried on the trend of past winners with regards to weight, and it is now 10 winners from 13 (76%) who have weighed 11st or less, and his official rating of 135 means the last 11 of 12 winners (92%) had an OR between 128 and 145 . However, at 20/1, he is only the second horse ever to win at odds over 16/1 (15%), and his previous 9^th at Newbury makes him the 6^th winner of this race to have failed to place lto (46%).

3:20- Gold Cup
All the signs pointed to Denman retaining his crown; however he was beaten by a country mile by stable-mate Kauto Star, who was an imperious 13 lengths clear come the winning post. He was at the upper end of the required age range (9), and was the 9^th winner ever to go off at less than 15/2 (75%). He had ridden slightly too many times over fences (20 in all), and was the first ever winner to exceed the 6-13 previous rides over the sticks that past winners had, however he had won lto in the King George on Boxing Day. His win comes as no shock, he outclassed the rest of the field with ease, and Denman’s connections can have no complaints in truth.

5:15- Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
A statistical selection to end a wonderful week’s racing came in the form of Poquelin,however, as seems to be the theme this week, it came a poor 8^th. The winner Oh Crick, made it 11 winners from 13 (85%) who carried 10-12 or less, and his 2^nd at Hereford lto makes it 9 from 13 (69%) who placed prior to winning the finale. When you also consider his SP of 7/1 (Considerably lower than when I previewed the race!), he ticks all the boxes, and was a worthy statistical winner.

And that’s it! Festival over for another year, and we look forward to Aintree next month. Hope this has been informative; I tried to keep it short and sweet for you all! Thoughts and feedback appreciated.

This article was written by forum member Palmersears for the OHRacing message board. You can view the thread this article was posted in, by clicking here.

Today holds the third day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting and I have to say this looks one of the hardest festival cards I’ve encountered. Only two real races scream out as betting opportunities and the remainder are all trappy handicaps where one of many can potentially win, we’ll see though.

The first race on the card is the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase (1:30) and has some smart recruits challenging for this prize. Words are out in force for Northern Alliance but trainer Tony Martin has yet to train a winner in 2009 and the stable form is lacking in earnest. That doesn’t mean he can’t land a touch with this one though, and has been trained with this in mind. One that does interest me is Exmoor Ranger, and providing he brushes up his jumping ahead of this run he has the potential to go very close, stamina laden and doesn’t mind the surface he’s a smart sort and unexposed off his current mark, Christian Williams knows him well. Quws Law if returning to form could run a race at a price (66-1) and is worth looking at for a small each-way interest. Finally Tranquil Sea has to be respected for Edward O’Grady after making an impressive debut he’s since struggled, but the better ground here could be the key. If you are playing this race, PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

Next on the list is the Pertemps Final (2:05) and yet another hard race to find the winner of. Solid words doing the round for the Jonjo O’Neill trained Synchronised and the stable could hardly be in better form at the festival. The Sliotar was fancied when last seen at Cheltenham but failed to run his usual race, and could return to form under Danny Cook taking the 5lbs off. However the one that catches my eye, and probably for sentimental reasons is Blue Shark. Returned from a long layoff with injury at Sandown in December and despite being well supported in the market dropped away tamely after running fresh. Next time he was still cruising when hampered by the fall of another runner, and last time failed to fire. Cheltenham is a track that will suit this horse, and off a mark of 130 is dangerous for this smart horse. Dominic Elsworth takes the ride and holds a 19% strike-rate riding hurdlers for owner Trevor Hemmings, I’ve had an each-way bet on this at 25-1.

Third up the Ryanair Chase (2:40) and a race that is really at the mercy of classy recruit Voy Por Ustedes for trainer Alan King. Once quick enough to winner a Champion Chase, Voy Por Ustedes ran with credit in both the Betfair Chase and King George so will have no problems staying this sort of trip. Our Vic winner of this race last year is back at his ideal distance, and can put a lacklustre performance behind him shown on his return at Kempton last time, Timmy Murphy gets on well with the son of Old Vic, and it’d be great to see him go close again after backing him last year. Tidal Bay has gone here after swerving the Queen Mother, but quite if he gets this trip in top company is still uncertain in my view, memory of his Arkle victory is still fresh in the memory and if reproducing that effort will go very close. Imperial Commander looked good in the Paddy Power and has been lightly campaigned since; a return to Cheltenham will be suited to this horse and both Monet’s Garden and Gwanako have to be given a mention. I’m going to give Imperial Commander another chance over a distance that will suit and now that the Twiston Davies team have returned to form he can bounce back into the winners’ enclosure.

Next the World Hurdle (3:20) and this should be pretty much straight forward for Kasbah Bliss, and the classy French recruit can show that impressive turn of foot to settle this in a matter of strides, my preview on that can be read here.

The Freddie Williams Festival Plate (4:00) is next on the card, and Ferdy Murphy’s Three Mirrors can be expected to go close, trip and ground in favour and is decently weighted to collect. PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

1:30 – Exmoor Ranger
2:05 – Blue Shark (EW)
2:40 – Imperial Commander (EW)
3:20 – Kasbah Bliss (NAP)
4:00 – Three Mirrors (EW)

I also don’t get the slating McCoy has taken for his ride on Binocular, the horse had every chance to go by up the run in but just wasn’t good enough and didn’t quicken as well as expected. It could well have been the ground but I suspect Binocular is more of a flat-track bully and will return to dazzle us at Aintree next month. McCoy is best judged on his super human effort aboard Wichita Lineman in the handicap earlier on the card, that ride was simply outstanding and I can safely say I haven’t seen many better than that. Back to the Champion Hurdle, the horse to take out that race is Celestial Halo, he was approximately twenty lengths ahead of the Supreme Novices three out, yet they finished at almost exactly the same time. To run at that searching pace, and lie up with it at the front, for as long as he did and then find more when the front runners dropped away and challengers came aplenty was an outstanding effort – I’d underrated his ability before now, but I won’t be caught out again.

Today looks tough as expected really but there are a few opportunities to be had, particularly in the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) and you can read my piece on that by clicking here.

The first race National Hunt Chase (1:30) really is as tough as they come to decipher and could be won by almost anything in the field. I’ve had a small interest on the bottom horse Tank Top; trained by Tom George the stable really couldn’t be in better form at the minute, and the ground is predicted to suit this staying prospect. He has it to find at the weights strictly speaking but is still unexposed over fences and is worth chancing a couple of quid at such ludicrously large odds. Coe also ranks highly on my list but he has shown in previous efforts he has a tendency to clout a couple en-route to completing and that could be costly round here but that said, I do fancy his chances.

Hopefully after Mikael D’Haguenet has won the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) we’ll be on a roll by now, possibly with the snare of Tank Top hitting the frame at large odds, and the RSA Chase (2:40) is another tricky race to choose anything with any real confidence. Ruby Walsh has jumped ship to ride Cooldine of Willie Mullins, who has a tall reputation. What A Friend is in the race for Paul Nicholls (who has won this two of the last three years), Sam Thomas takes the ride on that one. Killyglen is unexposed also and improved on his debut effort by smashing a fair sort in Chief Dan George up at Ayr when last seen and has to be respected, but let’s not forget Massini’s Maguire who goes well round here having won a Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (in 2007) for Phillip Hobbs. Massini’s Maguire has come back well from injury and two fair place efforts latest should put him bang right for this, I worry that he’ll stay the trip but reports circulating this morning suggests he’s going to run a very big race. I’ve thrown a few quid at Siegemaster after being informed late last year this was a horse with considerable potential and the first time I backed him was when his saddled slipped when beaten by Trafford Lad. Put away last time by Casey Jones in an oddly run affair I’m not sure Siegemaster run his race that time, and the three month break will have freshened him up for this, Davy Russell rides and Cheltenham looks made for this fellow – I’m on at 25s.

Next up is the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:20) and it’ll be a question of how far Master Minded is going to win by, but that doesn’t mean he’s bombproof just yet, and even if he is his price really doesn’t interest me in the slightest. I’ve chanced Big Zeb for Colm Murphy, a horse that is held in the highest regard by his trainer and a horse who’s shown improved form this term. He would have won again last time but for a silly fall when having the race at his mercy, and at 12-1 I couldn’t resist an each-way poke. I’ve also had a stab at the Paddy Power W/O Master Minded Market, you can bet on this by going to the website.

On our list next is the Coral Cup (4:00) joy! A race in which I painfully remember JP Magnier having an absolute ton in hand on Rhinestone Cowboy in 2003, and still couldn’t win. Thankfully I can sleep safe in the knowledge he isn’t riding my fancy again this time round but it doesn’t make this race any easier whatsoever. Basically I’m of the opinion that almost anything can win this, with the exception of probably my fancy Kirbybroguelantern, who has been primed with this race in mind I think with a latest effort on the flat. He’s unexposed over this trip and looks well weighed on his form off 131, he came fourth here as a Novice behind I’msingingtheblues and clearly has ability. I wouldn’t begrudge Lough Derg a victory if he can carry that welter burden to victory, I kind of hope he can because it’d be a massive buzz roaring him up the hill, but off 163 in this competitive handicap, I doubt it. The Polomoche too has to be respected for inform duo Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

After that puzzle, we’re set another in the shape of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle (4:40) which on first glance looks like negotiating a maze. There are so many potentially well handicapped horses in this race it’d be suicidal to go in with any conviction. Noises round here suggests Miss Sarenne will take all the beating in this (I’ve taken 20-1 Antepost) and despite a fall last time Tony McCoy believes this filly has what it takes to be there at the finish and advised his retained JP McManus to snap her up ahead of the festival. Since then he has added her to his string of annual festival purchases, and her price has tumbled into as low as 13-2. If playing this race, Paddy Power are 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS).

Finally the Champion Bumper (5:15) and my money has probably all faded away by now but I live in hope that I’ve at least had a winner, possibly two but that’d be greedy – wouldn’t it? This should be renamed the Willie Mullins Benefit Race, and once again he has half the field entered in this big national hunt flat race. Sicilian Secret is reported to be his main hope, but I’m not so sure, and big words are coming for Dunguib, who’s looked impressive to date but I’m going with Some Present who is held in high regard at the Thomas Mullins stable, and looks a large price in the context of this race. I’ve taken some 40-1 with Boylesports. If you are having a bet in this race, then take advantage of the Paddy Power offer of 1-2-3-4 (1/4 ODDS).

Selections
1:30 – Tank Top (EW) -
2:05 – Mikael D’Haguenet
2:40 – Siegemaster (EW)
3:20 – Big Zeb (EW)
4:00 – Kirbybrougelantern (EW)
4:40 – Miss Sarenne (EW)
5:15 – Some Present