Day One
1:30- Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
A disappointing start for the stats, with selection Torphichen only finishing a distant 9th to winner Go Native. To be fair the winner was not a total blip in the trends. At 6 years old he was the perfect age for a potential winner, and he won prior to this at Naas back in February. At 12/1 he was not totally out of reach of the 6/1 maximum odds that 50% of the previous winners went off at. In addition he came relatively close to winning both races before this Festival opener, beaten into second by Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown last January. Overall, not the most trend-busting winner ever, and certainly one to add into the calculations when compiling next year’s stats.
3:20- Champion Hurdle
Very nearly the first winner for the stats at the Festival came courtesy of Celestial Halo in the Champion Hurdle, who was beaten only a neck by 22/1 winner Punjabi. The winner was a mixed bag in terms of statistical data, lacking the previous Cheltenham experience and lto success to adequately enter initial calculations. That previous 3rd at Wincanton did come within the 51 day period required, and Nicky Henderson’s charge had come third in this race a year earlier, however it was difficult to find statistical evidence to put up a valid argument for it being a likely winner. The statistical selection’s second place, at a nice e/w price of 17/2, is some consolation.
Day Two
1:30- National Hunt Challenge Cup
Tricky Trickster became the first horse younger than seven to claim the National Hunt Challenge Cup in twenty years as he came home 10 lengths clear of Drumcovis. In addition the seven year olds, who have won the last four renewals, could do no better than the favourite Can’t Buy Time, who finished 4th. The favourite’s 4th was also the best Jonjo O’Neill, traditionally successful in this event, could muster.
2:05- Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
As suggested in the preview, this Grade 1 hurdle was indeed contested by those prominent in the market, with all those occupying the places well inside the required SP of 12/1. In the end Mikael D’Haguenet made it 5 from 12 for the favourites (41%). Both the favourite and the next two home, Karabak and Diamond Harry, would have been on the shortlist given their previous form, price and age. The poor showing for 4 year olds continued, with 100/1 shot Ruthenose the first one home in a distant 9th.
2:40- RSA Chase
Impossible to pick a firm selection from the available statistics prior to this, and in a high quality field, the favourite Cooldine prevailed by some considerable margin. His victory continued the trend which has now seen 7 or 8 year olds win 13 of the last 15 renewals (86%). His victory also extends the record of winners placing in their preparation race, which now stretches back 11 years.
3:20- Queen Mother Champion Chase
It was clear from the outset that Master Minded would be a comfortable winner, and so it proved, with Ruby Walsh guiding him to a solid if unspectacular 7 length victory. For the purpose of the stats we tried to find a viable alternative, and landed upon Scotsirish after Tidal Bay’s defection to the Ryanair Chase. Looking back it’s clear Scotsirish ran up to the best of recent form, finishing a creditable 5th. He looked in contention at one point, but faded rounding the home turn.
4:00- Coral Cup
Another race which gave no stand-out selection, and one which saw 14/1 shot Ninetieth Minute narrowly beat Mirage Dore into second. The winner was well within the 11st maximum the statistics required, and was relatively unexposed. His trainer, the lesser known A J Taffe, was enjoying his first ever win at Cheltenham, and was a welcome change from the previously dominant four of Edward O’Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neil.
5:15- Champion Bumper
The poor record of 4 year olds in the Champion Bumper continued in 2009, with Latin America the first home in a distant 13th. The eventual winner Dunguib made in 12 from 13 winners who have finished 1st or 2nd prior to running in the bumper (92%), and it was another success for Ireland, who have now won 11 or the last 13 renewals (84%). However it wasn’t such a successful race for Willie Mullins, who could only manage a best of 4th with Quel Espirit, and whose strike-rate in this now drops to 46% from the last 13 runnings.
Day Three
1:30- Jewson Novices’ Chase
Kia Kaha flew the statistical flag in this one and was, after going off the 15/2 favourite, a disappointing 10th, never jumping fluently throughout the race. The winner Chapoturgeon was well weighted, carrying the minimum end of that required statistically. He also had the required form, winning back at Doncaster at the end of January. That was his sole win prior to this, and as such he was suitably unexposed. The only thing that held him back statistically was his age, and his win brought first ever winning 5 year old, with all previous winners aged 7. He would certainly have been on the shortlist had he been slightly older, however with only four previous renewals of this race there is plenty of time for trends to be reshaped into more reliable patterns, and there will be many more winners like Chapoturgeon in years to come.
2:05 Pertemps Final Hurdle
The statistical selection, Syncronished was a faller at the last when well held, and never looked like threatening in all honesty. The eventual winner Kayf Armis was ideally aged to win this statistically, and his previous win now makes it 8 from the last 13 (61%) who were victorious coming into this event. He was, statistically, slightly light in the weights to make any apparent impact, and his win now makes it 3 from 12 (25%) who have won carrying less than 10-6.
3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
A race in which Kasbah Bliss was expected to dominate statistically, however he was no match for the powerful winner Big Bucks. The Nicholls trainer horse was certainly shortlisted prior to the race, as was 2nd placed Punchestowns, however he was overlooked due to his previously poor Cheltenham form (7th in the Jewson last year). Indeed he is only the 4th horse in 13 runnings (30%) to have won this race without placing at the Festival the year before, and he is the first ever horse to win this without participating in previous renewals of it or the Supreme Novices’. He ticked all the other boxes, and was, in the end, a not unsurprising winner statistically.
4:00- Festival Plate
The first outright winner for the stats came courtesy of Something Wells, and, at 33/1, it was well worth the wait! His win with a rating of 139 now makes it 10 from 12 winners (83%) who won with an official rating between 128 and 141, and his previous experience in the Jewson (All be it as a faller), now makes it 16 of the last 18 winners (88%) who have done the same. At 10-7 he made it 12 of the last 13 winners (92%) who have now carried less than 11-3, and his 2nd at Chepstow in February now means 9 of 13 winners (69%) have placed prior to winning the Plate. Martin Pipe’s recent good record ended, with 10th placed Pablo Du Charmil the best he could manage.
4:40- Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The stats failed to adequately narrow down the field in this one, and as such we were left with Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan’s Future, That’s Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star. In the end it was Pretty Star who faired best, coming only a length behind winner Character Building. The winner became only the 5th horse in 21 years to win carrying more than 11 stone (11-12!), and its official rating of 139 made him only the 3rd winner in 12 attempts (25%) to defy the 128 ‘maximum.’ Whilst there was place form to his name (Last 3 runs red 933), it was difficult to see J Quinn’s charge winning this, and it was a definite bucking of the trends to finish day three.
Day Four
1:30- Triumph Hurdle
The final day, and one which started with another disappointing run from statistical selection Trenchant. Eventual winner Zaynar had run the required amount of times previously (4) and, by winning lto at Newbury, ticked a further two boxes. His SP was well within the 20/1 guideline at 11/2, however he had only previously won one race, that previously mentioned, and became only the 3rd horse in 13 attempts (23%) to win with less than two wins previously. Furthermore his last preparation race came in December, far too late according to past trends. Indeed he became the first ever winner of the Triumph to do so with a preparation race before February.
2:05- Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Too many to choose from statistically in this so we’ll concentrate purely on winner American Trilogy, ridden superbly by the on form Mr Walsh. Paul Nicholls’ horse carried on the trend of past winners with regards to weight, and it is now 10 winners from 13 (76%) who have weighed 11st or less, and his official rating of 135 means the last 11 of 12 winners (92%) had an OR between 128 and 145 . However, at 20/1, he is only the second horse ever to win at odds over 16/1 (15%), and his previous 9th at Newbury makes him the 6th winner of this race to have failed to place lto (46%).
3:20- Gold Cup
All the signs pointed to Denman retaining his crown; however he was beaten by a country mile by stable-mate Kauto Star, who was an imperious 13 lengths clear come the winning post. He was at the upper end of the required age range (9), and was the 9th winner ever to go off at less than 15/2 (75%). He had ridden slightly too many times over fences (20 in all), and was the first ever winner to exceed the 6-13 previous rides over the sticks that past winners had, however he had won lto in the King George on Boxing Day. His win comes as no shock, he outclassed the rest of the field with ease, and Denman’s connections can have no complaints in truth.
5:15- Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
A statistical selection to end a wonderful week’s racing came in the form of Poquelin,however, as seems to be the theme this week, it came a poor 8th. The winner Oh Crick, made it 11 winners from 13 (85%) who carried 10-12 or less, and his 2nd at Hereford lto makes it 9 from 13 (69%) who placed prior to winning the finale. When you also consider his SP of 7/1 (Considerably lower than when I previewed the race!), he ticks all the boxes, and was a worthy statistical winner.
And that’s it! Festival over for another year, and we look forward to Aintree next month. Hope this has been informative; I tried to keep it short and sweet for you all! Thoughts and feedback appreciated.
This article was written by forum member Palmersears for the OHRacing message board. You can view the thread this article was posted in, by clicking here.
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