I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.
An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 16 years.
Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and form usually tends to work out. In recent years Big Bucks’ has dominated the staying division suggesting you can get a half decent staying chaser to revert back over hurdles and dominate due to the staying division not being up to much. This year it looks like Big Buck’s has a real challenge in the David Pipe trained Grands Crus who has put in performances on the clock to shake up the Paul Nicholls inmate.

BIG BUCKS
Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f))
Notes: Starting with the horse this race revolves around, Big Buck’s aims to emulate what Inglis Drever did before him and win three World Hurdles. He has won his two in emphatic style to date but in fairness he hasn’t really been up against anything out of the top drawer. This year looks the same with only one or two with realistic chances, but Grands Crus could be a fly in the big fella’s ointment. Big Bucks has an imperious Cheltenham record and his form at the track reads (71111) and that seventh placed run came over larger obstacles, so over hurdles at the track he remains unbeaten. He is currently a standout 11/10 with VCBet while most other firms have him odds on.

Grands Crus

GRANDS CRUS
Dom Alco (FR) — Fee Magic (FR) (Phantom Breeze (8.8f))
Notes: A horse I hold in real high regard and have an antepost bet on for this very race albeit at larger odds (25/1), he has always been regarded as a very smart prospect but took a while to acclimatize at Pond House after starting his career in the French provinces. Grands Crus ran a time to put him right in the ballpark of lowering the colours of Big Buck’s when winning the Cleeve Hurdle effortlessly last time out, and the second placed Knockara Beau has since franked the form winning a decent handicap hurdle at Carlisle. David Pipe’s grey comes into the race at the top of his game and will be primed to the absolute minute come the race and a repeat of that Cleeve Hurdle run (he could well have gone faster too) will put him bang there at the line.

MOURAD
Sinndar (IRE) (12.0f) — Mouramara (IRE) (Kahyasi (12.8f))
Notes: Has been somewhat of a nearly horse throughout his career and has now made the switch to running over staying trips having started out over two miles. Willie Mullins’ son of Sinndar has put together back to back victories of late but that has come up against inferior opposition to what he will face in the World Hurdle and although he could run into the places, won’t have the class to serve it up to either Big Buck’s or Grands Crus.

FIVEFORTHREE
Arzanni — What A Queen (King´s Ride (14.0f))
Notes: Another from the Willie Mullins yard, and looks about best of his runners and those from the Emerald Isle. The Irish haven’t won this race in the last 16 years, and if they were to win it this year it might rest with Fiveforthree who made a pleasing return from a long layoff to score easily over a trip plenty short of his best. A winner at the Cheltenham Festival when landing the Ballymore back in 2008, he will almost certainly relish stepping back up to this trip but questions have to be answered on his ability to handle such a race so soon after coming back from two years off the track. If he is fully sound, and prepared for the World Hurdle (most horses need a rest period of around 6 weeks after coming back from a layoff for the first time) he will be thereabouts in the placings.

PUNCHESTOWNS
Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA))
Notes: Looks like potentially reverting back to hurdles after not quite living up to the hype over fences, and the last time he was seen over the smaller obstacles was when second to Big Buck’s in this race back in 2009. He has been held by the Paul Nicholls hurdling star on every time they’ve come up against each other and despite his claims to throwing down a big challenge to the placers, on the form he won’t be winning this but could certainly make the frame at a large price. (20/1 StanJames and Totesport).

SOLWHIT
Solon (GER) (15.0f) — Toowhit Towhee (USA) (Lucky North (USA))
Notes: Could potentially line up here according to the Betfair market (currently available to back at 29/1) but it’s never good trying to second guess Charles Byrnes as you’ll always come off second best. Solwhit is an interesting contender on his form when beating Fiveforthree over 20F at Aintree two years ago but has been exclusively campaigned over two miles since. He ran well over 20F against Hurricane Fly in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in December but couldn’t match that runner for pace in a typical Irish jog-and-sprint race. The faster pace of Cheltenham and the longer trip should give him a solid chance of making the frame, and at 33/1 (VCBet) could be worth chucking a couple of quid at, at the price.

Verdict: In what looks a match between Big Bucks and GRANDS CRUS it would be worth taking a chance on the expected improvement of David Pipe’s likeable grey who still remains on the upgrade. Big Buck’s has done fantastically well over hurdles and will be a formidable opponent for all his rivals, but the times of his victories aren’t nothing flash and Grands Crus has every chance of toppling him come March. Of the remainder, it would be worth chancing a small each-way on Fiveforthree at 16/1, and he could well get the best of the remainder if retaining his ability.

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