Bookies are sometimes accussed of trying to generate a false favourite to draw money on to them etc I can’t for the life of me see what Alaivan has done to merit favouritism. There’s a couple of tenuous lines which give him a verdict over the likes of Pittoni, but Carla Bruni has beaten him fair and square, and without being extended either

Alaivan now heads the market at 9/2, with Carlito Brigante a 6/1 chance.

2 mile Novice races at the festival tend to be run lickety spit. People often make the mistake of thinking these are speed dependent when in actual fact stamina is the key to winning them. Or to be more precise, the ability to keep hammering out section after section at speed (stamina by any other name). There are a number of visually impressive performances every year where a horse uses a devastating burst of acceleration off a modest pace to win by 10+ lengths and they invariably earn rave reviews and a prominent place in the betting. The problem of course, is that come the festival, the horse won’t be asked to win a race in this fashion (or very rarely anyway). Essentially you’re backign a horse to do something he has hitherto not advertised his ability to do. Or to think of it another way, you’re invoking one piece of evidence that will bear little resemblence to what he’s asked to now do. The first time these horses get asked to sustain a firm gallop from the tapes to the line, then they’re going into unknown territory, and to many of them, it can come as a shock to the system. That’s not to say they can’t do it, it’s just that they haven’t as yet proven they can do it, and the percentage call is to side with something that has, rather than something that might (especially as the something that might is normally at a prohibitively short price). I remember earning the wrath of few people for suggesting that neither Mister Hight or Sweet Wake would even place in the Triumph and Supreme a few years ago, and flagging up Detroit City and Straw Bear as the more likely candidates to win and move into open company. Similarly Clopf, (although he got injured and never got the chance to prove me right) would have been another. Ebaziyan won a very slow Supreme and was another i didn’t think would make the jump into open compnay. There’s no shortage of ‘jog and sprint’ merchants and although some might prove me wrong, my experience has been that you’re better off avoiding them.

I tend to think the Triumph is one race that actually lends itself to using Topspeed thus, as the only way you can run a fast time is over the whole course distance, and not by simply jogging round and then sprinting the final 3F’s. The latter will only result in a slow to moderate time albeit that any winner under these circumstances will have advertised their ability to accelerate off a slow pace (shame they’re going to be required to accelerate off a fast pace).

Since the advent of the Fred Winter the Triumph has become more winnable with an average SP of about 11/2 as opposed to 12/1. The best TS figure recorded by the winners going into the race has also risen.

Zaynar = 133
Celestial Halo = 131
Katchit = 135
Detroit City = 124 (I’d dispute this one and had him much higher)
Penzance = 110

Before that you had some poor winners like;

Made In Japan = 101
Spectroscope = 105
Scolardy – didn’t earn a rating?

Albeit; katarino 136, Snow Drop 123, Upgrade 134 and Paddys Return 135 were all in the zone

As thinks stand at the moment, only Carlito Brigante on 128 has surpassed the 125 mark. Pistolet Noir on 120, Advisor 124 and Barizan 125 are on the radar, even if their position in the market doesn’t necessarily reflect it yet (I’m half wondering if the latter might take in the Fred Winter yet). I’m slightly amused by the money for Alavian after the weekend to be honest. So far he’s managed 115 (I actually make it slightly lower) as he’s won a pretty facile race that belies its status, and beat nothing that had any significant form claim to assess him off, in what was little more than an archetypal jog and sprint affair in Ireland. When subjected to a quicker pace Carlito Brigante handed him a fair old beating. Carlito Brigante has gone faster still since (Musselburgh) and yet hasnt been shortend up despite holding Alavian on the book with a bit to spare (about 12L’s I think?). Mille Chief is only on 112 and needs to step up on that at kempton in the Adonis. If he does? then fair play, he can join the party, but at this stage he looks very vulnerable to me. One also detects that Alan King is sending out mixed messages too. He’s desperate to get this run into him and seems to know he needs it. He’s sounding increasingly anxious to me about something.

I should perhaps say though that failure produce a fast time in prep is no guarantee that a horse can’t do it when asked to. It’s just that in siding with those that have, you’re backign a degree of proven ability rather than potential

Carlito Brigante might have been impressive last time but he hasn’t exactly beat much other than Alaivan who himself is questionable over the obstacles and always pulls too hard in his races.

A race to leave alone or take a view about an outsider imo

Michael.

Upon looking it appears that was the case, as 4yo’s get a handy 8lb allowance against their elders in the Supreme, not that, that is enough anyway in the context of the race.

He hasn’t really amounted to much either since, perhaps that run has finished him – who knows.