The RSA Chase, formerly known as the Royal & SunAlliance Chase, has seen a few shock results along the way. The third race on day two of the Festival, winners of the race include Minnehoma, Florida Pearl, Looks Like Trouble, Albertas Run and of course Denman, but surprisingly, only a few have gone on to Gold Cup glory. Perhaps taking into account the fast pace of it, combined with the stamina sapping journey they must complete, explains this. Indeed some trainers may prefer to avoid the race altogether, while some horses may never recover from the exertions demanded to compete in it. Open to novices who are 4yo and upwards, run over an extended three miles and worth £150,000, let’s take a look through the main contenders of this years field.

Firstly, I am not a person who takes much interest in trends but even the most naïve of gamblers must know you can’t preview the Cheltenham Festival without outlining the key trends associated with each race. With that in mind:

32 of the last 35 winners finished first or second in their last race.

13 of the last 15 winners were aged 7 or 8.

Only 3 of the last 31 winners have been younger than 7.

Favourites have a good record with 6 wins in the last 18 renewals,

With last year’s winner, Cooldine, bidding for Gold Cup glory, this years crop is headed in the betting by the runner up in last years World Hurdle. Due to join him in the line up, his stable mate, the exciting French addition to the Henderson yard, along with a host of other talented British and Irish novice chasers.

Punchestowns
7-y-o Gelding
Morespeed (UK) – History (FR) (Alesso (USA)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: Top-notch hurdler who finished runner up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle at last year’s Festival. Made his anticipated debut over fences in November at Newbury in a Grade 2 where he was a facile winner in a four strong field. Returned in early February at Sandown to face four rivals in the Challengers Novices’ Chase. Again an easy winner despite one very bad blunder, but is yet to really be tested. However, he is the classiest horse in this field, and with no worries over ability, ground or stamina, no surprise to see him favourite.

Long Run
5-y-o Gelding
Cadoudal (FR) – Libertina (FR) (Balsamo (FR)
Nicky Henderson
Notes: French import that made his much anticipated UK debut in the three mile Grade 1 Feltham. He ran out an impressive winner and although his main danger clearly didn’t stay, the second has won both starts since. Sent to Warwick for a preparation run in the Kingmaker on Saturday, over a much shorter two mile trip, he made it two from two with a comfortable win. Holds an entry to the Arkle , but his trainer confirmed, before and after Saturday’s win, this is his intended target. Although he has done nothing wrong, this will be a tough ask for a young horse and his jumping does not convince me.

Diamond Harry
7-y-o Gelding
Sir Harry Lewis (USA) – Swift Conveyance (IRE) (Strong Gale (UK)
Nick Williams
Notes: Smart hurdler whose undefeated start to racing came to an end, when third in the Neptune (then the Ballymore), at last year’s Festival. Back to winning ways at the start of this season, followed by a third to Big Bucks in the Long Walk. He was sent chasing at the turn of the year and won a four runner Grade 2 at Haydock over two and a half miles. Finished clear of Knockara Beau, beaten since by Weird Al, after his main rival Bensalem fell. Beat Bensalem again on Saturday in a three runner race over three miles, but Bensalem did well to stay upright and yet only finished two lengths behind. Has done nothing wrong but I just can’t see him winning this.

Weird Al
7-y-o Gelding
Accordion (UK) – Bucks Gift (IRE) (Buckley (UK)
Ian Williams
Notes: Unbeaten since debut second, and three from three over fences. Raced Knockara Beau up the Cheltenham hill on chase debut in November and came out on top close home. Back a month later he put four rivals to the sword with a nice round of jumping. Up in trip, to three miles one furlong, in the Towton earlier this month, he confirmed form with Kockara Beau by winning again, and put in another top round of jumping. Two for two at the track, lightly raced and quite possibly with more to come, must be a definite player at fair odds.

Pandorama
7-y-o Gelding
Flemensfirth (USA) – Gretchen’s Castle (IRE) (Carlingford Castle (UK)
Noel Meade
Notes: Top notch horse whose career stats show eight wins from nine starts. Talented hurdler who finished second to Mikael D’haguenet in a three runner Grade 1 event, before winning the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle afterwards, when benefiting from a last flight fall from Cousin Vinny. Jumped left most of the way on chase debut and got headed before battling back for narrow win. Form of that race is working out very well and much more impressive when winning a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse. Still showed the occasional tendency to jump left but no sign of that when winning Grade 1 Knight Frank Novice Chase at Leopardstown when stepped up to three miles. Leading when entering the straight, he was once again headed, and once again, rallied to get back up and win by a short head. Likeable horse with a big chance and incomprehensible that he is available at bigger odds than the horse he beat that day, Weapons Amnesty.

Pandorama has suffered a muscle injury ruling him out of the race – 01.03.2010

Mikael D’haguenet
6-y-o Gelding
Lavirco (GER) – Fleur D’haguenet (FR) (Dark Stone (FR)
Willie Mullins
Notes: French import who has proven to be a top hurdler landing three Grade 1s in his undefeated streak of six from six. Included in that, is his win at last years Festival in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (now the Neptune). Yet to go chasing since leaving France and so a watching brief advised.

Others
Bensalem got close to Diamond Harry on Saturday but does not look a natural at fences and seems sure to throw in one shocker per round.

Weapons Amnesty has finished second to Pandorama and Citizen Vic on his last two starts and can only hope for minor honours at best here, though unlikely.

Citizen Vic won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time out but doesn’t look good enough to feature here while Tazbar, who finished second to Long Run three starts ago, has won his last two races, but over shorter, and has minimal place claims at best.

Uimhiraceathair won his chase debut for Willie Mullins but looks no world-beater despite dead heating in a Navan Grade 2 on Sunday. Similar comments have to apply to Paul Nicholls’s The Nightingale, though he was more impressive on debut, it’s hard to get excited about the odds on offer for either.

Gansey won the other day and was impressive in doing so. At odds currently around 66/1, having jumped and traveled well, you can see why a few bob has been put down on him to sneak a place.

Verdict
Punchestowns will be hard to beat but I’m going to take him on with a horse I’ve always liked a lot, and who has a bigger chance than his position in the betting suggests. PANDORAMA’s jumping has gradually improved with each run to date, and he will have no problem with any underfoot conditions, though softer ground is preferred. His attitude and battling spirit are perfect for the job and the trip should be ideal. 14/1 is way too big for a horse of his ability and as his trainer has confirmed his likely participation, I for one will be all over it.

1pt e/w Pandorama @ 14/1 with Bet365, PaddyPower or William Hill.

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