Comments on: Cheltenham ‘10: Champion Bumper

By: Mike westwood

Mike westwood — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:18:22 +0000

Drumbaloo now as short as 9/1 in places, loving my 33/1 and 25/1 early prices. Hope it makes up for my Sublimity bet

By: Robin

Robin — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 13:04:59 +0000

I have heard Tom Mullins thinks a lot of Tavern Times so I think an EW punt at 12s might be the value….although a British winner is overdue, cant see Al Ferof losing by far if he lines up?

By: Alun

Alun — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 18:40:06 +0000

Cheltenham dries out very well, and Prestbury Park has a very local micro climate. I wouldn’t try and draw too much from recent weather this far out. It only takes two or three decent days and it’ll be good ground. For all his faults, Claisse is one of the best clerks around for preparing good ground (even if he has a habit of declaring what I’ll describe as ‘political ground’). The spotlight falls on Cheltenham of course and any equine fatalities become the subject of national bad press. In many respects he has to declare softer ground than it actually is. My own going corrections tell me that since he took over the job in 2002, he’s managed to prepare good ground for the Tuesday with uncanny regularity (despite what he declares). The most blatant example came in 2007 when he declared ’soft’ and MWDS (a novice) beat standard time by 0.30 secs and ran the second fastest Arkle in 12 years to boot. It was only in the last two years (and to some extent the slow times in 2008 were attributable to strong wind) that he hasn’t prepared good ground

If Elegant Concorde wasn’t being laid out for this race, he’d have gone novice hurdling 9 months ago. They’ve clearly committed to a plan for him, and one suspects they’ll be more inclined to see it through havign got this far (though connections do have alternatives of course)

By: Wilhma Smith

Wilhma Smith — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 12:00:00 +0000

With recent weather conditions, Hidden Universe looks like a cracking bet. He is surely the more likely of the Weld duo to run and look at a cut above when dotting up on debut in the heavy conditions.

By: Alun

Alun — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 00:59:37 +0000

At this stage I’d plump for Elegant Concorde (or at least have done) which doesn’t sound terribly illuminating I’ll grant you, but armed with this insight I was able to get 16/1. He won’t be the only qualifier though

By: Mike westwood

Mike westwood — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 14:31:31 +0000

So what is your predicton Alun??

By: Alun

Alun — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 10:01:21 +0000

There’s a little appreciated technique for sorting this race out and it doesn’t half narrow the field the down. Just look at the past dozen winners and note the date they made their NHF dedut, and how many of them won a bumper in their first 2 starts. Insert the cut off at 31st July (or stretch it a week if you want to take in the Galway festival). Typically such horses make up about 10% of the final field and provide something like 70% of the winners. Both Dunguib (first) and Rite of Passage (third) were two of three qualifiers for last years renewal. The reason is obvious really. There is a reason a horse has been ’saved’ and not sent novice hurdling. If a trainer is prepared to hang on to their ammunition for what can be up to 12 months, they’ve only got one thing in mind and must fancy their chances knowing what they’ve got etc

By: David Simons

David Simons — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 19:43:20 +0000

Tough race to be overly confident about and I think my bet will be small play on Araucaria. She got a stinker of a ride when 2nd on her penultimate start and she’s been a very easy winner either side of that.

By: Adam Reeves

Adam Reeves — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 12:12:08 +0000

I too like Tetlami and have him at some big big odds on Betfair similar to Mike. My one concern is his stamina but as you say at the top, not the strongest renewal. I think if I was gonna pick another in the race, it would have to be the mare, Araucaria.

By: Jamie McDermott

Jamie McDermott — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 11:43:28 +0000

This is the fourth bumper preview I’ve read this morning and by far the best. Really insightful stuff.
I’ve heard very good things about Hidden Universe but he is quite unlikely to get his ideal ground and therefore run. I was leaning towards Forty Foot Tom beforehand and I think he will be my choice.