Thursday, July 29, 2010

Cheltenham Day Two Preview

Written by Jamie 'The Duke' Taylor On March - 11 - 2009

Some rumours emanating from the Irish shores suggested that the Irish would struggle to get more than four winners on the board this festival, so Irish eyes must be pleased to already have four on the board after day one with plenty of promise still to come this week. The Irish currently hold a lead of (4-2) over Britain, or England as I like to call them, and that could even be 5-1 if you wish to count Jonjo O’Neill as Irish.

I also don’t get the slating McCoy has taken for his ride on Binocular, the horse had every chance to go by up the run in but just wasn’t good enough and didn’t quicken as well as expected. It could well have been the ground but I suspect Binocular is more of a flat-track bully and will return to dazzle us at Aintree next month. McCoy is best judged on his super human effort aboard Wichita Lineman in the handicap earlier on the card, that ride was simply outstanding and I can safely say I haven’t seen many better than that. Back to the Champion Hurdle, the horse to take out that race is Celestial Halo, he was approximately twenty lengths ahead of the Supreme Novices three out, yet they finished at almost exactly the same time. To run at that searching pace, and lie up with it at the front, for as long as he did and then find more when the front runners dropped away and challengers came aplenty was an outstanding effort – I’d underrated his ability before now, but I won’t be caught out again.

Today looks tough as expected really but there are a few opportunities to be had, particularly in the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) and you can read my piece on that by clicking here.

The first race National Hunt Chase (1:30) really is as tough as they come to decipher and could be won by almost anything in the field. I’ve had a small interest on the bottom horse Tank Top; trained by Tom George the stable really couldn’t be in better form at the minute, and the ground is predicted to suit this staying prospect. He has it to find at the weights strictly speaking but is still unexposed over fences and is worth chancing a couple of quid at such ludicrously large odds. Coe also ranks highly on my list but he has shown in previous efforts he has a tendency to clout a couple en-route to completing and that could be costly round here but that said, I do fancy his chances.

Hopefully after Mikael D’Haguenet has won the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) we’ll be on a roll by now, possibly with the snare of Tank Top hitting the frame at large odds, and the RSA Chase (2:40) is another tricky race to choose anything with any real confidence. Ruby Walsh has jumped ship to ride Cooldine of Willie Mullins, who has a tall reputation. What A Friend is in the race for Paul Nicholls (who has won this two of the last three years), Sam Thomas takes the ride on that one. Killyglen is unexposed also and improved on his debut effort by smashing a fair sort in Chief Dan George up at Ayr when last seen and has to be respected, but let’s not forget Massini’s Maguire who goes well round here having won a Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (in 2007) for Phillip Hobbs. Massini’s Maguire has come back well from injury and two fair place efforts latest should put him bang right for this, I worry that he’ll stay the trip but reports circulating this morning suggests he’s going to run a very big race. I’ve thrown a few quid at Siegemaster after being informed late last year this was a horse with considerable potential and the first time I backed him was when his saddled slipped when beaten by Trafford Lad. Put away last time by Casey Jones in an oddly run affair I’m not sure Siegemaster run his race that time, and the three month break will have freshened him up for this, Davy Russell rides and Cheltenham looks made for this fellow – I’m on at 25s.

Next up is the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:20) and it’ll be a question of how far Master Minded is going to win by, but that doesn’t mean he’s bombproof just yet, and even if he is his price really doesn’t interest me in the slightest. I’ve chanced Big Zeb for Colm Murphy, a horse that is held in the highest regard by his trainer and a horse who’s shown improved form this term. He would have won again last time but for a silly fall when having the race at his mercy, and at 12-1 I couldn’t resist an each-way poke. I’ve also had a stab at the Paddy Power W/O Master Minded Market, you can bet on this by going to the website.

On our list next is the Coral Cup (4:00) joy! A race in which I painfully remember JP Magnier having an absolute ton in hand on Rhinestone Cowboy in 2003, and still couldn’t win. Thankfully I can sleep safe in the knowledge he isn’t riding my fancy again this time round but it doesn’t make this race any easier whatsoever. Basically I’m of the opinion that almost anything can win this, with the exception of probably my fancy Kirbybroguelantern, who has been primed with this race in mind I think with a latest effort on the flat. He’s unexposed over this trip and looks well weighed on his form off 131, he came fourth here as a Novice behind I’msingingtheblues and clearly has ability. I wouldn’t begrudge Lough Derg a victory if he can carry that welter burden to victory, I kind of hope he can because it’d be a massive buzz roaring him up the hill, but off 163 in this competitive handicap, I doubt it. The Polomoche too has to be respected for inform duo Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

After that puzzle, we’re set another in the shape of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle (4:40) which on first glance looks like negotiating a maze. There are so many potentially well handicapped horses in this race it’d be suicidal to go in with any conviction. Noises round here suggests Miss Sarenne will take all the beating in this (I’ve taken 20-1 Antepost) and despite a fall last time Tony McCoy believes this filly has what it takes to be there at the finish and advised his retained JP McManus to snap her up ahead of the festival. Since then he has added her to his string of annual festival purchases, and her price has tumbled into as low as 13-2. If playing this race, Paddy Power are 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS).

Finally the Champion Bumper (5:15) and my money has probably all faded away by now but I live in hope that I’ve at least had a winner, possibly two but that’d be greedy – wouldn’t it? This should be renamed the Willie Mullins Benefit Race, and once again he has half the field entered in this big national hunt flat race. Sicilian Secret is reported to be his main hope, but I’m not so sure, and big words are coming for Dunguib, who’s looked impressive to date but I’m going with Some Present who is held in high regard at the Thomas Mullins stable, and looks a large price in the context of this race. I’ve taken some 40-1 with Boylesports. If you are having a bet in this race, then take advantage of the Paddy Power offer of 1-2-3-4 (1/4 ODDS).

Selections
1:30 – Tank Top (EW) -
2:05 – Mikael D’Haguenet
2:40 – Siegemaster (EW)
3:20 – Big Zeb (EW)
4:00 – Kirbybrougelantern (EW)
4:40 – Miss Sarenne (EW)
5:15 – Some Present

Popularity: 21% [?]

Share with friends:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Google Bookmarks
  • RSS
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati
  • Twitter

Leave a Reply