Thursday, July 29, 2010

Cheltenham 2009: The Arkle

Written by Jamie 'The Duke' Taylor On March - 9 - 2009

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is run at Cheltenham racecourse as part of the Festival In March, it is a novice race for five year olds and above.

The race distance is two miles with twelve fences to be jumped on the old course.
This race will probably be one of the toughest the contenders have run, and for many it will be the first time they have attempted the four and a half foot fences in a race.

When looking to back a horse here it can be quite a daunting task, mainly due to the lack of experience these novices have, obviously the odds will suggest which is a popular bet and which is not but it can turn into a guessing game.

Perhaps instead look at the trainer records, Alan King and the Pipe stables have dominated this race in recent years so look carefully at any contenders from their stables.

Also horses with some chasing experience that shows their ability to jump at speed, this race will test the horses’ capabilities to the full and only the very best will prevail here and go on to become top class chasers.

Key Arkle Trends

* 20 of the last 21 winners finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts
* French bred horses have won 7 of the last 14 renewals
* Just one winner has started at over 10/1 in the last decade
* Only one horse over the age of seven has won since 1990

Bringbackthebiff
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Beaten behind some fair sorts over three miles two runs ago, he recorded a win over 18 furlongs last time out on heavy ground. The form of the race doesn’t have an overly strong look to it, and Willie Mullins who saddles Golden Silver in this race has a line through this via Captain Conflict who was a close second to the Edward O’Grady trained gelding.

Calgary Bay
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The Henrietta Knight trained gelding has some solid form in the book and has looked a chaser with a future on starts to date. He started off a good second to I’msingingtheblues over two miles at Doncaster before winning over 21 furlongs at Cheltenham staying on strongly to beat Kicks For Free and Tartak in a good quality contest – the form of that looks particularly strong in the context of this race. Then an outing to Ascot when second to Panjo Bere over 17 furlongs, he got outpaced at the business end of the race and was done for speed on the run to the line. Cheltenham will be more suitable for this lovely chasing type; however I can’t help but feel he’s in a similar mould to Racing Demon who found two and a half miles his best trip.

Cheating Chance

8-y-o Gelding
Notes: A once well regarded individual when trained by Nicky Richards, he made the switch to Andrew Turnell after a string of disappointing efforts and has since thrived. He collected a handicap chase and a novice chase at Ascot before being soundly put in place the last twice, most recently when behind Planet Of Sound who re-opposes here.

Cornas
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An improving sort from the Nick Williams stable who run his best race to date when a fast finishing second to Gauvain at Sandown. The line came just in time for the Charlie Mann trained individual but I feel Cornas can reverse form here with the Cheltenham hill working in his favour. He certainly is a big price for this race and is worthy of respect, although he’ll probably find one or two just too good for him on the day.

Follow The Plan
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: An Irish invader from the Oliver McKiernan stable who lowered the colours of favourite Tatenen when giving the Paul Nicholls inmate 11lbs and a beating in the Grade Two novices event at Leopardstown two runs ago. He failed to reproduce that form on heavy ground last time when soundly beaten behind Golden Silver but the forecasted better ground should suit this horse in the Arkle. He is off level terms with Tatenen who in theory he should hand out another beating to, and John Cullen the jockey of Follow The Plan has aired his confidence in doing so in a Cheltenham Preview evening.

Forpadydeplasterer
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse who I really think is seriously overrated from the Thomas Cooper stable, and has always shaped like a staying chaser in my eyes, just not particularly a top class one as expected. A good friend of mine who is respected as a judge thinks the Arkle is his race and strongly fancies him for it. It just cements how easy it can be to form different opinions about the same horse, but one of us will be wrong, hopefully it isn’t me!

Gauvain
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Charlie Mann’s gelding landed the odds last time at Sandown when fending off the late burst from Cornas. He made his debut in a chase at Lingfield when winning with consummate ease before falling when going extremely well at Fontwell. The form of his latest effort when winning looks decent but I just feel he lacks the requisite class to get involved in the business end here, and Cornas will be better suited to Cheltenham.

Golden Silver
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Willie Mullins gelding won effortlessly in a standard chase at Navan before improving rapidly to take the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown latest when fighting off Forpadydeplasterer in heavy ground. Paul Townend looks set to take the ride once again and should be thereabouts but once again I can see one or two being too strong for the Willie Mullins gelding.

I’m So Lucky
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has picked up a couple of small prizes along the way and a fair second placed effort behind Planet Of Sound back in December, however other horses around him are improving and I just wonder if this horse can continue to improve on what he’s already shown. My guess is his hand is already shown and will finish midfield.

I’msingingtheblues
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Holds good chase form to date having being only of only two to lower the colours of Calgary Bay over fences thus far, and has shown a likeable attitude to fight back when under pressure in his races. Has good course form and has good form over the distance. The son of Pistolet Bleu has shown on many occasions to have a high cruising speed and that could prove vital in a fast paced race such as this and could make the frame at a large price under Christian Williams.

Kalahari King
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held in very high regard by Ferdy Murphy, a trainer who has a knack of getting his horses to peak at The Festival. This horse did well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle when fourth behind Captain Cee Bee and has shown an excellent turn of foot and alacrity in his jumping abilities. This horse has been trained to peak in this race and I really fancy this one with ground conditions to suit.

Made In Taipan
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a good level of form over fences to date and returned to winning ways in good style last time out after a defeat at the hands of the Willie Mullins trained Jayo. That was on soft ground and with the forecast rain apparent ahead of the first day of the Festival; the sticky ground could well not be to the liking of Made In Taipan despite him winning on heavy last time.

Original
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An absolutely massive horse that showed improved form on that he’s shown in France when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton when last seen. Is expected to continue that improvement but I wonder if he’ll be good enough to mix it with the big guns, especially if the rain gets into the turf. I think he’s a horse that needs good racing ground.

Panjo Bere
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Did the business at Ascot when lowering the colours of Calgary Bay but came unstuck last time out at Sandown. I think Panjo Bere is a horse that prefers a flat track and thus will come unstuck once again at Cheltenham. He’s a decent horse don’t get me wrong, but I think he’ll struggle in this.

Planet Of Sound
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a liking from the larger obstacles and has always been held in high regard by the Phillip Hobbs team. His latest effort when putting to bed some useful rivals in French Opera and Song Of Songs, the latter who has won twice since looks solid form. The ground won’t really be a problem to this son of Kayf Tara and I can see him getting involved at the finish and will be thereabouts.

Tartak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Trainer Tom George has his string firing on all cylinders at the moment and it couldn’t come with better timing heading into The Festival. Tartak has shown good form over fences and the drop back in trip should suit this French bred gelding, as will any ease in the ground conditions.

Tatenen
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Seriously well regarded by the Nicholls camp and create a big impression when destroying a fair field over C&D on chasing debut. However he came unstuck at Leopardstown when second to Follow The Plan when in receipt of 11lbs from the latter. He doesn’t get the allowance anymore here and has to face more battle hardened rivals off level weights. That said Ruby Walsh has kept faith and the money has continued to come in recent days and has to be a major player in this given his impressive show here two runs ago.

Verdict: In what looks an open and poor renewal for this race it should pay to side with KALAHARI KING each-way. The Ferdy Murphy trained gelding has been trained with this race in mind and has been kept fresh ahead of this assignment. He is quick and nimble over his fences and possesses a devastating turn of foot when needed and looks the value in the race. Of the remainder Tatenen is the obvious choice, along with Planet Of Sound but it would be unwise to count out Cornas who could run a race at a big price of around

1pt each-way Kalahari King @ 10-1 with Paddy Power
0.25pt each-way Cornas @ 33-1 with Paddy Power

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