Day One

1:30- Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
A disappointing start for the stats, with selection Torphichen only finishing a distant 9^th to winner Go Native. To be fair the winner was not a total blip in the trends. At 6 years old he was the perfect age for a potential winner, and he won prior to this at Naas back in February. At 12/1 he was not totally out of reach of the 6/1 maximum odds that 50% of the previous winners went off at. In addition he came relatively close to winning both races before this Festival opener, beaten into second by Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown last January. Overall, not the most trend-busting winner ever, and certainly one to add into the calculations when compiling next year’s stats.

3:20- Champion Hurdle
Very nearly the first winner for the stats at the Festival came courtesy of Celestial Halo in the Champion Hurdle, who was beaten only a neck by 22/1 winner Punjabi. The winner was a mixed bag in terms of statistical data, lacking the previous Cheltenham experience and lto success to adequately enter initial calculations. That previous 3^rd at Wincanton did come within the 51 day period required, and Nicky Henderson’s charge had come third in this race a year earlier, however it was difficult to find statistical evidence to put up a valid argument for it being a likely winner. The statistical selection’s second place, at a nice e/w price of 17/2, is some consolation.

Day Two

1:30- National Hunt Challenge Cup
Tricky Trickster became the first horse younger than seven to claim the National Hunt Challenge Cup in twenty years as he came home 10 lengths clear of Drumcovis. In addition the seven year olds, who have won the last four renewals, could do no better than the favourite Can’t Buy Time, who finished 4^th. The favourite’s 4^th was also the best Jonjo O’Neill, traditionally successful in this event, could muster.

2:05- Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
As suggested in the preview, this Grade 1 hurdle was indeed contested by those prominent in the market, with all those occupying the places well inside the required SP of 12/1. In the end Mikael D’Haguenet made it 5 from 12 for the favourites (41%). Both the favourite and the next two home, Karabak and Diamond Harry, would have been on the shortlist given their previous form, price and age. The poor showing for 4 year olds continued, with 100/1 shot Ruthenose the first one home in a distant 9^th.

2:40- RSA Chase
Impossible to pick a firm selection from the available statistics prior to this, and in a high quality field, the favourite Cooldine prevailed by some considerable margin. His victory continued the trend which has now seen 7 or 8 year olds win 13 of the last 15 renewals (86%). His victory also extends the record of winners placing in their preparation race, which now stretches back 11 years.

3:20- Queen Mother Champion Chase
It was clear from the outset that Master Minded would be a comfortable winner, and so it proved, with Ruby Walsh guiding him to a solid if unspectacular 7 length victory. For the purpose of the stats we tried to find a viable alternative, and landed upon Scotsirish after Tidal Bay’s defection to the Ryanair Chase. Looking back it’s clear Scotsirish ran up to the best of recent form, finishing a creditable 5^th. He looked in contention at one point, but faded rounding the home turn.

4:00- Coral Cup
Another race which gave no stand-out selection, and one which saw 14/1 shot Ninetieth Minute narrowly beat Mirage Dore into second. The winner was well within the 11st maximum the statistics required, and was relatively unexposed. His trainer, the lesser known A J Taffe, was enjoying his first ever win at Cheltenham, and was a welcome change from the previously dominant four of Edward O’Grady, Philip Hobbs, Venetia Williams and Jonjo O’Neil.

5:15- Champion Bumper
The poor record of 4 year olds in the Champion Bumper continued in 2009, with Latin America the first home in a distant 13^th. The eventual winner Dunguib made in 12 from 13 winners who have finished 1^st or 2^nd prior to running in the bumper (92%), and it was another success for Ireland, who have now won 11 or the last 13 renewals (84%). However it wasn’t such a successful race for Willie Mullins, who could only manage a best of 4^th with Quel Espirit, and whose strike-rate in this now drops to 46% from the last 13 runnings.

Day Three

1:30- Jewson Novices’ Chase
Kia Kaha flew the statistical flag in this one and was, after going off the 15/2 favourite, a disappointing 10^th, never jumping fluently throughout the race. The winner Chapoturgeon was well weighted, carrying the minimum end of that required statistically. He also had the required form, winning back at Doncaster at the end of January. That was his sole win prior to this, and as such he was suitably unexposed. The only thing that held him back statistically was his age, and his win brought first ever winning 5 year old, with all previous winners aged 7. He would certainly have been on the shortlist had he been slightly older, however with only four previous renewals of this race there is plenty of time for trends to be reshaped into more reliable patterns, and there will be many more winners like Chapoturgeon in years to come.

2:05 Pertemps Final Hurdle
The statistical selection, Syncronished was a faller at the last when well held, and never looked like threatening in all honesty. The eventual winner Kayf Armis was ideally aged to win this statistically, and his previous win now makes it 8 from the last 13 (61%) who were victorious coming into this event. He was, statistically, slightly light in the weights to make any apparent impact, and his win now makes it 3 from 12 (25%) who have won carrying less than 10-6.

3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
A race in which Kasbah Bliss was expected to dominate statistically, however he was no match for the powerful winner Big Bucks. The Nicholls trainer horse was certainly shortlisted prior to the race, as was 2^nd placed Punchestowns, however he was overlooked due to his previously poor Cheltenham form (7^th in the Jewson last year). Indeed he is only the 4^th horse in 13 runnings (30%) to have won this race without placing at the Festival the year before, and he is the first ever horse to win this without participating in previous renewals of it or the Supreme Novices’. He ticked all the other boxes, and was, in the end, a not unsurprising winner statistically.

4:00- Festival Plate
The first outright winner for the stats came courtesy of Something Wells, and, at 33/1, it was well worth the wait! His win with a rating of 139 now makes it 10 from 12 winners (83%) who won with an official rating between 128 and 141, and his previous experience in the Jewson (All be it as a faller), now makes it 16 of the last 18 winners (88%) who have done the same. At 10-7 he made it 12 of the last 13 winners (92%) who have now carried less than 11-3, and his 2^nd at Chepstow in February now means 9 of 13 winners (69%) have placed prior to winning the Plate. Martin Pipe’s recent good record ended, with 10^th placed Pablo Du Charmil the best he could manage.

4:40- Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
The stats failed to adequately narrow down the field in this one, and as such we were left with Mustang Rally, Great Approach, Gaora Lane, Keenan’s Future, That’s Rhythm, Prince of Persia and Pretty Star. In the end it was Pretty Star who faired best, coming only a length behind winner Character Building. The winner became only the 5^th horse in 21 years to win carrying more than 11 stone (11-12!), and its official rating of 139 made him only the 3^rd winner in 12 attempts (25%) to defy the 128 ‘maximum.’ Whilst there was place form to his name (Last 3 runs red 933), it was difficult to see J Quinn’s charge winning this, and it was a definite bucking of the trends to finish day three.

Day Four

1:30- Triumph Hurdle
The final day, and one which started with another disappointing run from statistical selection Trenchant. Eventual winner Zaynar had run the required amount of times previously (4) and, by winning lto at Newbury, ticked a further two boxes. His SP was well within the 20/1 guideline at 11/2, however he had only previously won one race, that previously mentioned, and became only the 3^rd horse in 13 attempts (23%) to win with less than two wins previously. Furthermore his last preparation race came in December, far too late according to past trends. Indeed he became the first ever winner of the Triumph to do so with a preparation race before February.

2:05- Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Too many to choose from statistically in this so we’ll concentrate purely on winner American Trilogy, ridden superbly by the on form Mr Walsh. Paul Nicholls’ horse carried on the trend of past winners with regards to weight, and it is now 10 winners from 13 (76%) who have weighed 11st or less, and his official rating of 135 means the last 11 of 12 winners (92%) had an OR between 128 and 145 . However, at 20/1, he is only the second horse ever to win at odds over 16/1 (15%), and his previous 9^th at Newbury makes him the 6^th winner of this race to have failed to place lto (46%).

3:20- Gold Cup
All the signs pointed to Denman retaining his crown; however he was beaten by a country mile by stable-mate Kauto Star, who was an imperious 13 lengths clear come the winning post. He was at the upper end of the required age range (9), and was the 9^th winner ever to go off at less than 15/2 (75%). He had ridden slightly too many times over fences (20 in all), and was the first ever winner to exceed the 6-13 previous rides over the sticks that past winners had, however he had won lto in the King George on Boxing Day. His win comes as no shock, he outclassed the rest of the field with ease, and Denman’s connections can have no complaints in truth.

5:15- Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
A statistical selection to end a wonderful week’s racing came in the form of Poquelin,however, as seems to be the theme this week, it came a poor 8^th. The winner Oh Crick, made it 11 winners from 13 (85%) who carried 10-12 or less, and his 2^nd at Hereford lto makes it 9 from 13 (69%) who placed prior to winning the finale. When you also consider his SP of 7/1 (Considerably lower than when I previewed the race!), he ticks all the boxes, and was a worthy statistical winner.

And that’s it! Festival over for another year, and we look forward to Aintree next month. Hope this has been informative; I tried to keep it short and sweet for you all! Thoughts and feedback appreciated.

This article was written by forum member Palmersears for the OHRacing message board. You can view the thread this article was posted in, by clicking here.

Popularity: 41% [?]

Not a bad day yesterday in betting terms and another winning preview for the website as Mikael D’Haguenet did the business in good style under Ruby Walsh. He’s a horse with very solid form in the book and should develop into a classy chaser next year. In my haste leaving for work I forgot to add an each-way pointer about Some Present, although at 33-1 I’m sure those of you backed it went each-way, he ran a mighty race in defeat but let’s face it, the winner Dunguib was an easy and facile winner – he looks a top class prospect for next year.

Today holds the third day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting and I have to say this looks one of the hardest festival cards I’ve encountered. Only two real races scream out as betting opportunities and the remainder are all trappy handicaps where one of many can potentially win, we’ll see though.

The first race on the card is the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase (1:30) and has some smart recruits challenging for this prize. Words are out in force for Northern Alliance but trainer Tony Martin has yet to train a winner in 2009 and the stable form is lacking in earnest. That doesn’t mean he can’t land a touch with this one though, and has been trained with this in mind. One that does interest me is Exmoor Ranger, and providing he brushes up his jumping ahead of this run he has the potential to go very close, stamina laden and doesn’t mind the surface he’s a smart sort and unexposed off his current mark, Christian Williams knows him well. Quws Law if returning to form could run a race at a price (66-1) and is worth looking at for a small each-way interest. Finally Tranquil Sea has to be respected for Edward O’Grady after making an impressive debut he’s since struggled, but the better ground here could be the key. If you are playing this race, PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

Next on the list is the Pertemps Final (2:05) and yet another hard race to find the winner of. Solid words doing the round for the Jonjo O’Neill trained Synchronised and the stable could hardly be in better form at the festival. The Sliotar was fancied when last seen at Cheltenham but failed to run his usual race, and could return to form under Danny Cook taking the 5lbs off. However the one that catches my eye, and probably for sentimental reasons is Blue Shark. Returned from a long layoff with injury at Sandown in December and despite being well supported in the market dropped away tamely after running fresh. Next time he was still cruising when hampered by the fall of another runner, and last time failed to fire. Cheltenham is a track that will suit this horse, and off a mark of 130 is dangerous for this smart horse. Dominic Elsworth takes the ride and holds a 19% strike-rate riding hurdlers for owner Trevor Hemmings, I’ve had an each-way bet on this at 25-1.

Third up the Ryanair Chase (2:40) and a race that is really at the mercy of classy recruit Voy Por Ustedes for trainer Alan King. Once quick enough to winner a Champion Chase, Voy Por Ustedes ran with credit in both the Betfair Chase and King George so will have no problems staying this sort of trip. Our Vic winner of this race last year is back at his ideal distance, and can put a lacklustre performance behind him shown on his return at Kempton last time, Timmy Murphy gets on well with the son of Old Vic, and it’d be great to see him go close again after backing him last year. Tidal Bay has gone here after swerving the Queen Mother, but quite if he gets this trip in top company is still uncertain in my view, memory of his Arkle victory is still fresh in the memory and if reproducing that effort will go very close. Imperial Commander looked good in the Paddy Power and has been lightly campaigned since; a return to Cheltenham will be suited to this horse and both Monet’s Garden and Gwanako have to be given a mention. I’m going to give Imperial Commander another chance over a distance that will suit and now that the Twiston Davies team have returned to form he can bounce back into the winners’ enclosure.

Next the World Hurdle (3:20) and this should be pretty much straight forward for Kasbah Bliss, and the classy French recruit can show that impressive turn of foot to settle this in a matter of strides, my preview on that can be read here.

The Freddie Williams Festival Plate (4:00) is next on the card, and Ferdy Murphy’s Three Mirrors can be expected to go close, trip and ground in favour and is decently weighted to collect. PaddyPower are paying out on 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS) OPEN AN ACCOUNT NOW!

1:30 – Exmoor Ranger
2:05 – Blue Shark (EW)
2:40 – Imperial Commander (EW)
3:20 – Kasbah Bliss (NAP)
4:00 – Three Mirrors (EW)

Popularity: 25% [?]

Some rumours emanating from the Irish shores suggested that the Irish would struggle to get more than four winners on the board this festival, so Irish eyes must be pleased to already have four on the board after day one with plenty of promise still to come this week. The Irish currently hold a lead of (4-2) over Britain, or England as I like to call them, and that could even be 5-1 if you wish to count Jonjo O’Neill as Irish.

I also don’t get the slating McCoy has taken for his ride on Binocular, the horse had every chance to go by up the run in but just wasn’t good enough and didn’t quicken as well as expected. It could well have been the ground but I suspect Binocular is more of a flat-track bully and will return to dazzle us at Aintree next month. McCoy is best judged on his super human effort aboard Wichita Lineman in the handicap earlier on the card, that ride was simply outstanding and I can safely say I haven’t seen many better than that. Back to the Champion Hurdle, the horse to take out that race is Celestial Halo, he was approximately twenty lengths ahead of the Supreme Novices three out, yet they finished at almost exactly the same time. To run at that searching pace, and lie up with it at the front, for as long as he did and then find more when the front runners dropped away and challengers came aplenty was an outstanding effort – I’d underrated his ability before now, but I won’t be caught out again.

Today looks tough as expected really but there are a few opportunities to be had, particularly in the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) and you can read my piece on that by clicking here.

The first race National Hunt Chase (1:30) really is as tough as they come to decipher and could be won by almost anything in the field. I’ve had a small interest on the bottom horse Tank Top; trained by Tom George the stable really couldn’t be in better form at the minute, and the ground is predicted to suit this staying prospect. He has it to find at the weights strictly speaking but is still unexposed over fences and is worth chancing a couple of quid at such ludicrously large odds. Coe also ranks highly on my list but he has shown in previous efforts he has a tendency to clout a couple en-route to completing and that could be costly round here but that said, I do fancy his chances.

Hopefully after Mikael D’Haguenet has won the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (2:05) we’ll be on a roll by now, possibly with the snare of Tank Top hitting the frame at large odds, and the RSA Chase (2:40) is another tricky race to choose anything with any real confidence. Ruby Walsh has jumped ship to ride Cooldine of Willie Mullins, who has a tall reputation. What A Friend is in the race for Paul Nicholls (who has won this two of the last three years), Sam Thomas takes the ride on that one. Killyglen is unexposed also and improved on his debut effort by smashing a fair sort in Chief Dan George up at Ayr when last seen and has to be respected, but let’s not forget Massini’s Maguire who goes well round here having won a Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (in 2007) for Phillip Hobbs. Massini’s Maguire has come back well from injury and two fair place efforts latest should put him bang right for this, I worry that he’ll stay the trip but reports circulating this morning suggests he’s going to run a very big race. I’ve thrown a few quid at Siegemaster after being informed late last year this was a horse with considerable potential and the first time I backed him was when his saddled slipped when beaten by Trafford Lad. Put away last time by Casey Jones in an oddly run affair I’m not sure Siegemaster run his race that time, and the three month break will have freshened him up for this, Davy Russell rides and Cheltenham looks made for this fellow – I’m on at 25s.

Next up is the Queen Mother Champion Chase (3:20) and it’ll be a question of how far Master Minded is going to win by, but that doesn’t mean he’s bombproof just yet, and even if he is his price really doesn’t interest me in the slightest. I’ve chanced Big Zeb for Colm Murphy, a horse that is held in the highest regard by his trainer and a horse who’s shown improved form this term. He would have won again last time but for a silly fall when having the race at his mercy, and at 12-1 I couldn’t resist an each-way poke. I’ve also had a stab at the Paddy Power W/O Master Minded Market, you can bet on this by going to the website.

On our list next is the Coral Cup (4:00) joy! A race in which I painfully remember JP Magnier having an absolute ton in hand on Rhinestone Cowboy in 2003, and still couldn’t win. Thankfully I can sleep safe in the knowledge he isn’t riding my fancy again this time round but it doesn’t make this race any easier whatsoever. Basically I’m of the opinion that almost anything can win this, with the exception of probably my fancy Kirbybroguelantern, who has been primed with this race in mind I think with a latest effort on the flat. He’s unexposed over this trip and looks well weighed on his form off 131, he came fourth here as a Novice behind I’msingingtheblues and clearly has ability. I wouldn’t begrudge Lough Derg a victory if he can carry that welter burden to victory, I kind of hope he can because it’d be a massive buzz roaring him up the hill, but off 163 in this competitive handicap, I doubt it. The Polomoche too has to be respected for inform duo Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty.

After that puzzle, we’re set another in the shape of the Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle (4:40) which on first glance looks like negotiating a maze. There are so many potentially well handicapped horses in this race it’d be suicidal to go in with any conviction. Noises round here suggests Miss Sarenne will take all the beating in this (I’ve taken 20-1 Antepost) and despite a fall last time Tony McCoy believes this filly has what it takes to be there at the finish and advised his retained JP McManus to snap her up ahead of the festival. Since then he has added her to his string of annual festival purchases, and her price has tumbled into as low as 13-2. If playing this race, Paddy Power are 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 ODDS).

Finally the Champion Bumper (5:15) and my money has probably all faded away by now but I live in hope that I’ve at least had a winner, possibly two but that’d be greedy – wouldn’t it? This should be renamed the Willie Mullins Benefit Race, and once again he has half the field entered in this big national hunt flat race. Sicilian Secret is reported to be his main hope, but I’m not so sure, and big words are coming for Dunguib, who’s looked impressive to date but I’m going with Some Present who is held in high regard at the Thomas Mullins stable, and looks a large price in the context of this race. I’ve taken some 40-1 with Boylesports. If you are having a bet in this race, then take advantage of the Paddy Power offer of 1-2-3-4 (1/4 ODDS).

Selections
1:30 – Tank Top (EW) -
2:05 – Mikael D’Haguenet
2:40 – Siegemaster (EW)
3:20 – Big Zeb (EW)
4:00 – Kirbybrougelantern (EW)
4:40 – Miss Sarenne (EW)
5:15 – Some Present

Popularity: 21% [?]

The Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt hurdle race in the United Kingdom for four-year-old and above novices. It is run over a distance of 2 miles 5 furlongs (4,225 metres) on the Old Course at Cheltenham Racecourse during the Cheltenham Festival in March. There are ten hurdles to be jumped in the race.

The race was introduced in 1971 as the Aldsworth Hurdle and the name was changed in 1974 when the insurance company Sun Alliance began sponsoring the race. It became the Sun Alliance Novices’ Hurdle, which was altered to Royal & SunAlliance Novices’ Hurdle after the merger of Royal Insurance and Sun Alliance in 1996. The race has been run under its present sponsored title since 2007 and is registered as the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle.

Theresa bit of history for you taken from Wikipedia, and now I’m going to try and find you the winner, so far we haven’t done too badly with our other previews, snaring an each-way about Kalahari King who failed by the narrowest of short-heads, and Quevega doing the business in emphatic style at our advised 3-1 price.

China Rock
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A decent second behind Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Go Native two outings ago over a trip short of his best. Despite the result only reading a 1.75L defeat by the former now Cheltenham Champion it could have been alot more given the ease of the victory, but an impressive turnout next time saw China Rock beat the respectable yardstick in Baltiman by 25 lengths, but could have been counted a little lucky after favourite Head Of The Posse fell when coming to mount a challenge under David Casey. Paddy Power has him priced up at 22-1 and looks to have about that much of a chance here, but could surprise with the conditions underfoot soft.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

Diamond Harry
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Unbeaten in six starts to date the gelded son of Sir Harry Lewis has shown top class form to date and comes here with an excellent chance of extending that winning streak. An impressive defeat of the more experienced Junior (A horse who finished 1.5L third off 133 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.) at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle reads very well in the context of this and the race he won last time at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day is a good indicator as a rule for this race with Wichita Lineman winning in 2007 and had Tidal Bay, Massini’s Maguire (first and second in that season’s Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle) and Osana all behind. Trainer Nick Williams has his string performing with credit and Timmy Murphy (who has ridden him to all six victories) retains the ride on this impressive sort and he ought to go close.
PaddyPower Price: 9-2

Junior
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse that has been firmly put in his place by Diamond Harry and Cape Tribulation on his latest two efforts, despite his respectable third off 133 in last year’s Coral Cup lacks the class needed to land this event. Will run its usual race in defeat but is likely to find almost half this field too strong.
PaddyPower Price: 33-1

Karabak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The first string from the Alan King stable and the horse that Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton would have been riding had it not been for JP McManus snaring this smart staying prospect shortly before the festival. With that it means his retained jockey Tony McCoy takes over in the saddle and he won’t find a better prospect to jump on than this. A horse that was outpointed on hurdles debut behind the class yet huge Mad Max but showed considerable promise in running a gallant second to that rival (who re-opposes here) before taking the scalps of the once highly-regarded Mahonia from the Paul Nicholls camp, en-route to further success and this time a seriously impressive one when disposing of some useful rivals at Ascot. His latest effort put 20L between him and Somersby (who since ran third in the Supreme Novices today) and has to be hugely respected. The only worry for me with this would be the ground, the ground has looked plenty soft enough to my eye and he’s been exclusively campaigned on decent ground to date, and his older half-sister run her best races on Good racing ground.
PaddyPower Price: 7-2

Knockara Beau
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: A real solid chance here for small northern trainer George Charlton. The Northumberland handler has a smart improving sort here and the six year old son of Leading Counsel made eye-catching late headway to wheel away from smart opposition over 18F at Kelso last time in Grade 2 Company. He looks a horse with a bright future over fences so anything he does in this sphere can be regarded a bonus. The extra distance here looks ideal and a course like Cheltenham will play to his strengths, as will the ground and the uphill finish. He merits plenty of respect and is worth keeping on side at the current double figure odds.
PaddyPower Price: 18-1

Mad Max
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A huge stamp of a horse and well regarded by Team Henderson, this large animal is unbeaten in all four starts today and recorded his fastest postmark in soft conditions last time. I still believe he’s a horse that prefers better ground than what he’ll most probably encounter here tomorrow and looks every inch a chaser in the making. That said the Henderson team are in great form at the moment and Barry Geraghty is in top form riding two winners at The Festival so far. Holds Karabak on Ascot form when the pair last met, that rival has since progressed as has Mad Max, so it’s shaping up to be an exciting race.
PaddyPower Price: 6-1

Mikael D’Haguenet
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse which has shown impressive form since his arrival from France and another held in very high regard by Willie Mullins. The word from the Emerald Isle is that this horse is expected to collect here and after his latest effort over a trip short of his best, in despatching the fair Donnas Palm (a horse who’d earlier finished a 0.25L second to Hurricane Fly) it looks like they could be right about this one. Donnas Palm was then beaten 45L when finishing last to Hurricane Fly when they met again, he’d had a hard race the first time against that rival and his jumping went to pot. The Hurricane Fly form looks awesomely strong at present, with both Go Native (Supreme Novices) and Quevega (David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) franking it with flying colours. Mikael D’Haguenet also dispatched of the well regarded Pandorama by 7L when the pair met last, a horse who was still travelling well when Cousin Vinny departed company at the last when the latter two met ahead of The Festival, overall the form looks very strong. Add to the fact that Ruby Walsh has jumped on board this instead of the Paul Nicholls trained The Nightingale and you have a strong fancy from camp Cheltenhamtips.
PaddyPower Price: 3-1

Quwetwo
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: This will be one for the measurement stakes as to who is the biggest horse out of Quwetwo and Mad Max, I’m sure the tape measures will be out in force ahead of their intended assignment. The former Sue Smith trained gelding destroyed a moderate field in a Newcastle bumper at a rather handsome 7-1 on return from a break and it’s with a smug smile I type that because a close friend of mine had given me ‘the nod’ to get onboard that day, so he holds a special place in my heart after that bank boosting effort. He then switched hands to Howard Johnson for a princely sum and moved to new owner Graham Wylie, and despite that he was still able to go off at a backable price (9-2) on hurdles debut where once again he galloped them into the ground. He then won again at Ayr in an egg and spoon race in a fitness tune-up for this assignment. He looks to have the possibilities of going very well here for a strong team but I feel this horse will be more a chaser than a hurdler, and perhaps will get outpaced at a vital stage in this contest.
PaddyPower Price: 16-1

Realt Dubh
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held on form by Mikael D’Haguenet and is also held through the Cousin Vinny/Hurricane Fly line of form. Is unexposed over this trip but doesn’t look to have it in the locker to serve it up to the principles in this contest and at best could sneak a potential place.
PaddyPower Price: 22-1

The Nightingale
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Paul Nicholls has a fair sort here in The Nightingale who has shown decent form in the book to date. A good second in a Grade 2 bumper behind Mad Max he made his hurdling debut at Exeter before slipping on the run-in and awarding Shalone the race. Shalone would probably have won anyway, but it was good to see the Cadoudal gelding get back on his feet looking none the worse for that, and made light work of his opposition when next seen at Taunton – and the second has since racked up a double in Handicap Company and looks to be improving. No doubt he has plenty to find to mix it with the very best here, but he has a capable pilot in Christian Williams on board and Paul Nicholls wouldn’t throw him in at the deep end if he didn’t think he was capable of producing.
PaddyPower Price: 12-1

Verdict: Another mind-bogglingly hard race to assess but I just think it’ll pay to side with the form choice MIKAEL D’HAGUENET now that Ruby Walsh has been confirmed to ride this French bred. Willie Mullins has his string in good heart having already had a winner in Quevega running away with the Mares Hurdle. This horse represents a similar form line to that mare, and is worthy of plenty respect.

2pt win – Mikael D’Haguenet @ 3-1
0.25pt each-way – Knockara Beau @ 18-1

Popularity: 19% [?]

The Arkle Challenge Trophy is run at Cheltenham racecourse as part of the Festival In March, it is a novice race for five year olds and above.

The race distance is two miles with twelve fences to be jumped on the old course.
This race will probably be one of the toughest the contenders have run, and for many it will be the first time they have attempted the four and a half foot fences in a race.

When looking to back a horse here it can be quite a daunting task, mainly due to the lack of experience these novices have, obviously the odds will suggest which is a popular bet and which is not but it can turn into a guessing game.

Perhaps instead look at the trainer records, Alan King and the Pipe stables have dominated this race in recent years so look carefully at any contenders from their stables.

Also horses with some chasing experience that shows their ability to jump at speed, this race will test the horses’ capabilities to the full and only the very best will prevail here and go on to become top class chasers.

Key Arkle Trends
* 20 of the last 21 winners finished 1st or 2nd on all completed chase starts
* French bred horses have won 7 of the last 14 renewals
* Just one winner has started at over 10/1 in the last decade
* Only one horse over the age of seven has won since 1990

Bringbackthebiff
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Beaten behind some fair sorts over three miles two runs ago, he recorded a win over 18 furlongs last time out on heavy ground. The form of the race doesn’t have an overly strong look to it, and Willie Mullins who saddles Golden Silver in this race has a line through this via Captain Conflict who was a close second to the Edward O’Grady trained gelding.

Calgary Bay
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: The Henrietta Knight trained gelding has some solid form in the book and has looked a chaser with a future on starts to date. He started off a good second to I’msingingtheblues over two miles at Doncaster before winning over 21 furlongs at Cheltenham staying on strongly to beat Kicks For Free and Tartak in a good quality contest – the form of that looks particularly strong in the context of this race. Then an outing to Ascot when second to Panjo Bere over 17 furlongs, he got outpaced at the business end of the race and was done for speed on the run to the line. Cheltenham will be more suitable for this lovely chasing type; however I can’t help but feel he’s in a similar mould to Racing Demon who found two and a half miles his best trip.

Cheating Chance
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: A once well regarded individual when trained by Nicky Richards, he made the switch to Andrew Turnell after a string of disappointing efforts and has since thrived. He collected a handicap chase and a novice chase at Ascot before being soundly put in place the last twice, most recently when behind Planet Of Sound who re-opposes here.

Cornas
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An improving sort from the Nick Williams stable who run his best race to date when a fast finishing second to Gauvain at Sandown. The line came just in time for the Charlie Mann trained individual but I feel Cornas can reverse form here with the Cheltenham hill working in his favour. He certainly is a big price for this race and is worthy of respect, although he’ll probably find one or two just too good for him on the day.

Follow The Plan
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: An Irish invader from the Oliver McKiernan stable who lowered the colours of favourite Tatenen when giving the Paul Nicholls inmate 11lbs and a beating in the Grade Two novices event at Leopardstown two runs ago. He failed to reproduce that form on heavy ground last time when soundly beaten behind Golden Silver but the forecasted better ground should suit this horse in the Arkle. He is off level terms with Tatenen who in theory he should hand out another beating to, and John Cullen the jockey of Follow The Plan has aired his confidence in doing so in a Cheltenham Preview evening.

Forpadydeplasterer
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: A horse who I really think is seriously overrated from the Thomas Cooper stable, and has always shaped like a staying chaser in my eyes, just not particularly a top class one as expected. A good friend of mine who is respected as a judge thinks the Arkle is his race and strongly fancies him for it. It just cements how easy it can be to form different opinions about the same horse, but one of us will be wrong, hopefully it isn’t me!

Gauvain
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Charlie Mann’s gelding landed the odds last time at Sandown when fending off the late burst from Cornas. He made his debut in a chase at Lingfield when winning with consummate ease before falling when going extremely well at Fontwell. The form of his latest effort when winning looks decent but I just feel he lacks the requisite class to get involved in the business end here, and Cornas will be better suited to Cheltenham.

Golden Silver
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Willie Mullins gelding won effortlessly in a standard chase at Navan before improving rapidly to take the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown latest when fighting off Forpadydeplasterer in heavy ground. Paul Townend looks set to take the ride once again and should be thereabouts but once again I can see one or two being too strong for the Willie Mullins gelding.

I’m So Lucky
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has picked up a couple of small prizes along the way and a fair second placed effort behind Planet Of Sound back in December, however other horses around him are improving and I just wonder if this horse can continue to improve on what he’s already shown. My guess is his hand is already shown and will finish midfield.

I’msingingtheblues
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Holds good chase form to date having being only of only two to lower the colours of Calgary Bay over fences thus far, and has shown a likeable attitude to fight back when under pressure in his races. Has good course form and has good form over the distance. The son of Pistolet Bleu has shown on many occasions to have a high cruising speed and that could prove vital in a fast paced race such as this and could make the frame at a large price under Christian Williams.

Kalahari King
8-y-o Gelding
Notes: Held in very high regard by Ferdy Murphy, a trainer who has a knack of getting his horses to peak at The Festival. This horse did well in the Supreme Novices Hurdle when fourth behind Captain Cee Bee and has shown an excellent turn of foot and alacrity in his jumping abilities. This horse has been trained to peak in this race and I really fancy this one with ground conditions to suit.

Made In Taipan
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a good level of form over fences to date and returned to winning ways in good style last time out after a defeat at the hands of the Willie Mullins trained Jayo. That was on soft ground and with the forecast rain apparent ahead of the first day of the Festival; the sticky ground could well not be to the liking of Made In Taipan despite him winning on heavy last time.

Original
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: An absolutely massive horse that showed improved form on that he’s shown in France when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton when last seen. Is expected to continue that improvement but I wonder if he’ll be good enough to mix it with the big guns, especially if the rain gets into the turf. I think he’s a horse that needs good racing ground.

Panjo Bere
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Did the business at Ascot when lowering the colours of Calgary Bay but came unstuck last time out at Sandown. I think Panjo Bere is a horse that prefers a flat track and thus will come unstuck once again at Cheltenham. He’s a decent horse don’t get me wrong, but I think he’ll struggle in this.

Planet Of Sound
7-y-o Gelding
Notes: Has shown a liking from the larger obstacles and has always been held in high regard by the Phillip Hobbs team. His latest effort when putting to bed some useful rivals in French Opera and Song Of Songs, the latter who has won twice since looks solid form. The ground won’t really be a problem to this son of Kayf Tara and I can see him getting involved at the finish and will be thereabouts.

Tartak
6-y-o Gelding
Notes: Trainer Tom George has his string firing on all cylinders at the moment and it couldn’t come with better timing heading into The Festival. Tartak has shown good form over fences and the drop back in trip should suit this French bred gelding, as will any ease in the ground conditions.

Tatenen
5-y-o Gelding
Notes: Seriously well regarded by the Nicholls camp and create a big impression when destroying a fair field over C&D on chasing debut. However he came unstuck at Leopardstown when second to Follow The Plan when in receipt of 11lbs from the latter. He doesn’t get the allowance anymore here and has to face more battle hardened rivals off level weights. That said Ruby Walsh has kept faith and the money has continued to come in recent days and has to be a major player in this given his impressive show here two runs ago.

Verdict: In what looks an open and poor renewal for this race it should pay to side with KALAHARI KING each-way. The Ferdy Murphy trained gelding has been trained with this race in mind and has been kept fresh ahead of this assignment. He is quick and nimble over his fences and possesses a devastating turn of foot when needed and looks the value in the race. Of the remainder Tatenen is the obvious choice, along with Planet Of Sound but it would be unwise to count out Cornas who could run a race at a big price of around

1pt each-way Kalahari King @ 10-1 with Paddy Power
0.25pt each-way Cornas @ 33-1 with Paddy Power

Popularity: 18% [?]

PADDY POWER CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL BETTING PREVIEW

PADDY POWER MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
YOUR COUSIN VINNY!
Get Your Festival Off To A Supreme Start If favourite Cousin Vinny wins the Supreme Novice Hurdle Paddy Power will refund all losing single and each way bets on this race.Terms & Conditions:

Applies to win and each-way markets only. Singles only. Max Refund €300/£200 per customer/bet. If Cousin Vinny doesn’t run offer will revert to the SP Favourite. Paddy Power racing rules apply.

PADDY POWER WILL BE OFFERING DAILY SPECIALS THROUGHOUT THE FESTIVAL


PADDY POWER’S CHELTENHAM SPECIALS

A FAIR WIND FOR PUNTERS
Cheltenham was nearly blown off course last year with winds of up to 50mph forcing the cancellation of racing on the Wednesday. In another world betting first from Paddy Power the bookie is betting on the breeze. Will a fair wind blow for punters this year?

Results will be verified by British Weather Services.

Which day of the Festival will be the windiest (strongest gust)
2/1 Tuesday
11/8 Wednesday
3/1 Thursday
9/2 Friday

What will be the highest recorded wind gust during the 4 days of the Festival
6/1 Below 30 mph
4/1 30-35mph
11/4 36-40mph
5/2 41-45mph
9/4 +46mph

What will be the highest recorded wind gust on the first day of the Festival (Tues 10^th Mar)
8/1 Below 30 mph
10/3 30-35mph
5/2 36-40mph
9/4 41-45mph
3/1 +46mph


PADDY POWER’S GUINNESS SPECIAL
Like the Guinness, Paddy Power’s betting on The Black Stuff is the original draught compared to other pale imitators. Once again Paddy Power are betting on how many pints of Guinness are drunk at the four day Festival. Will the credit crunch quench punters’ thirsts or will they ride above the doom and gloom and celebrate in their usual style?

How many pints of Guinness will be consumed at Cheltenham Racecourse over the 4 days?
9/4 Less than 175,000 Pints of Guinness
4/1 175,000 – 195,000 Pints of Guinness
5/2 195,001 – 215,000 Pints of Guinness
3/4 215,001 – 235,000 Pints of Guinness
4/1 Over 235,000 Pints of Guinness


THE CHELTENHAM ROAR
The Cheltenham roar is one of sport’s spine-tingling moments, but what level of decibels will it reach for the famous opening race cheer.

What Will Be The Decibel Level of The Famous Cheltenham Roar?
8/1 Less than 90 dB (traffic levels)
4/1 90-100 dB (motorbike)
9/4 100-110 dB (powersaw)
3/1 110-120dB (loud rock concert)
4/1 120-130 dB (pneumatic drill)
8/1 130-140 dB (jet engine, gun blast)
12/1 Over 140dB
(Opening race on Tuesday 11^th March, decibel level as recorded from betting ring by Paddy Power)


WORLD’S WORST GAMBLERS
They’ve been labelled as some of the worst gamblers in history but now some of them have plenty of time on their hands in retirement . Which financier will show his face first at the Festival?

First to be seen at Cheltenham
9/4 Fred Goodwin (RBS)
3/1 Eric Daniels (Lloyds)
4/1 Sir Tom McKillop (RBS)
9/2 Lord Stevenson (HBOS)
6/1 Andy Hornby (HBOS)
12/1 Alistair Darling
20/1 Gordon Brown


RACING SPECIALS

8/1 Paul Nicholls to train the first three home in the Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls number of Winners
15/8 Two or less
11/10 Three to Four
5/2 Five or more

Master Minded Winning Distance
2/1 Up to and Incl seven lengths
5/1 Eight to ten lengths
7/4 Eleven lengths or more

Top Jockey
11-10 R Walsh; 7-2 AP McCoy; 7 B Geraghty; 8 R Thornton; 20 T Murphy, R Johnson; 25 P Carberry, D Russll, D O’Regan, S Thomas; 33 P Brennan

Top Trainer
8-11 Nicholls; 4 Mullins; 5 Henderson; 8 King; 10 Pipe; 20 O’Neill; 33 Hobbs; 40 Meade; 50 Johnson, Twiston Davies

Number Of Irish Winners
4/1 Up to and including three
5/1 4 winners
4/1 5 winners
4/1 6 winners
11/2 7 winners
11/4 8 or more winners


MAJOR RACE ANTE-POST LATEST
Tuesday – Champion Hurdle
6-4 Binocular; 9 Celestial Halo; 10 Osana; 12 Crack Away Jack; 14 Katchit; 16 Sublimity, Ashkazar; 18 Sizing Europe; 20 Jered; 25 Punjabi, Sentry Duty, Brave Inca, Harchibald; 28 Whiteoak; 33 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Tuesday – Champion Hurdle w/o Binocular
5 Celestial Halo; 11-2 Osana; 7 Crack Away Jack; 8 Katchit, Sublimity; 9 Ashkazar; 12 Punjabi, Sizing Europe, Jered, Harchibald; 14 Brave Inca, Sentry Duty, Whiteoak; 16 Muirhead, Won In The Dark; 20 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Wednesday – Queen Mother Champion Chase
1-3 Master Minded; 4 Voy Por Ustedes; 10 Big Zeb, Petit Robin; 12 Tidal Bay, Well Chief; 16 Twist Magic; 20 Briareus; 40 Tamarinbleu; 50 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Wednesday – Queen Mother Champion Chase w/o Master Minded
11-4 Big Zeb; 7-2 Petit Robin; 4 Tidal Bay, Well Chief; 5 Twist Magic; 6 Briareus; 14 Tamarinbleu, Mahogany Blaze; 25 Ashley Brook, Santa’s Son; 33 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Thursday – Ladbrokes World Hurdle
11-10 Kasbah Bliss; 7-2 Punchestowns; 5 Big Buck’s ; 11 Fair Along; 20 Blazing Bailey, Catch Me; 25 Mobaasher, Duc De Regniere, Lough Derg, Powerstation; 33 Nenuphar Collonges, Tazbar, Pettifour, Mighty Man; 40 Hardy Eustace, P’tit Fute, Shakervilz; 50 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3

Friday – Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
7-4 Kauto Star; 5 Neptune Collonges; 6 Denman; 8 Madison Du Berlais; 10 Exotic Dancer; 16 Albertas Run, Barbers Shop; 20 Big Buck’s, Star De Mohaison; 25 Air Force One, War Of Attrition; Imperial Commander; 40 Halcon Generlardais; 50 Bar

¼ odds 1, 2, 3Please note prices are subject to fluctuation.

Popularity: 18% [?]

Popularity: 15% [?]