We are roughly just 4 weeks from the festival and in this weeks Newsletter I’m giving you my views on this years Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup. I will be taking a look at all the horses remaining in the lists and I will give you my views on them individually. There are 28 horses left in this years feature, but with a maximum of 27 still standing to run.

I will advise you three bets in total, a main bet, a saver and a bet without the front three in the betting. I hope you enjoy the feature and remember you can order our full Cheltenham Preview guide for just £25 where you will receive your daily preview the night before racing as well as receiving up to the minute tips on course from our paddock judge.

The Field

AIR FORCE ONE

5th in last season’s Sun Alliance and then collected in style at Market Rasen & Punchestown. This season he hasn’t quite got it together jumping poor when it mattered when defeated by Roll Along and again he failed to get his jumping together when well beat in the King George. Hugely promising run in the Hennessy in between when a couple of errors couldn’t be blamed for his defeat but his jumping remains his downfall. Could go well at long odds if he gets his jumping together but remains a big If and plenty to prove on his Kempton showing. Does seem happier going left handed however. Best Price 33/1

ALBERTAS RUN

Decent novice last season who seemed to lose his way this season before respectable effort when chasing home easy winner Kauto Star in the King George, however recent effort when well beaten by Madison Du Berlais was more like his performances early in the season and he is becoming a frustrating sort. He would have outside claims on his novice form but seems to have lost his way now and cant be recommended on any of this seasons form. Best Price: 20/1

ARTEEA

Not ran for around a year and best run came when beating Foreman in a 2m 4f Clonmel Chase last February and was then found wanting in Grade Two company. Stamina not proven and level of ability far from the level required in this class. Best Price: 500/1

BABRERS SHOP

Impressed with his attitude to stay on strongly when 2nd in the Paddy Power in November and then saw off the likes of Roll Along and Battle Cry in a respectable field at Sandown in December. Missed the King George because of a setback and whilst reported back on song now, he still has to improve a good 10 – 15lb to have any sort of claims in this. Yet to totally prove he will get 3m 2f on a demanding track such as this. Best Price: 16/1

CERIUM

Former useful 2m chaser for Paul Nicholls but gradually regressed over the past two years. Changed hands for 18,000 Gns in the spring at Doncaster and has no real place in a race of this standard over a trip he has a very slim chance of staying. Best Price: 1000/1

DENMAN

High class novice two season’s ago and the best horse in training last season when an unbeaten chaser and easy winner of this race last season. Much was made of a heart defect in the summer and his return at Kempton recently was deemed rather disappointing. He was never jumping with his normal enthusiasm and looked beat a long way out. Trainer quick to defend that he is a far different horse left handed and will come on for the run but it remained a disappointing run which saw him drift from 17/10 – 5/1 in the betting markets. Obviously far too early to write him off and if you do still have faith in him then you are getting great value at a buying money ew price. He is one I would want on my side in the race but after his last run I couldn’t possibly advise him as a main selection. Best Price: 5/1

EXOTIC DANCER

Has improved from each run this season and was an easy winner at Leopardstown in December. Many people claimed he would have only been 2nd had Neptune Collonges not fallen but I’m not totally sure. He was never really going in last season’s Gold Cup but he looks back to his best this season. The year eh chased home Kauto Star he was harassed by loose horse from three out all the way until he jumped the last and I’m a firm believer that this cost him any chance of getting a serious cut at Kauto Star. He’s one of those if the ground was testing I wouldn’t write off at a decent price and think he will certainly shake up the front three in the betting. Best Price: 12/1

HALCON GENELARDAIS

Grand staying type who was near on gifted the Cotswold Chase when Joe Lively made a bad mistake at the 2nd last but he was found out up the hill and was done for a change of gear. Serves his connections well and ran a good race in last year’s Gold Cup, whilst he always seems to give his showing in staying handicap chases. Likely to be running on again this year but had to see him having the pace to get involved where it matters. Best Price: 50/1

IMPERIAL COMMANDER

Impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November but then was bitterly disappointing when tailed off tackling 3m for the first time in the King George in December. Hard to see him staying 3m 2f around here on that evidence and would have been more interesting if campaigned for the Ryanair. Also worth noting that the yards horses seem to have gone out of form lately now. Best Price: 40/1

KAUTO STAR

Talented and much loved seasoned chaser who dispelled his critics with a mind blowing display in the King George winning it for the 3rd time. A real smart horse on his day he collected the big prize two season’s ago when seeing off his rivals with some smart leaps before making his customary error at the last. His display at Haydock earlier this season can be ignored given his trainer has expressed his concerns with the horse at the track, but I’m not sure I would be getting carried away with the manner of his Kempton win. He comes into this season’s Gold Cup in good form, but I would be worried about his stamina if the ground came up testing and if Denman can bounce back he may struggle to form that form around. With Neptune Collonges a year older he also rates a serious danger and that’s without considering the new horses appearing equal dangers. 2/1 simply doesn’t represent value for me, although you cant doubt his natural ability. Best Price: 2/1

KNOWHERE

I fancied him at long odds in last season’s Gold Cup after his polished success in the 2008 Cotswold Chase but he never really got into the race. Returning after a break he was a good winner of the Old Roan at Aintree taking advantage of some of his rivals lack of peak fitness but he had to dig deep that day showing true guts. Found out in the Hennessy subsequently he looks one of those horses that despite being decent is just found out at the highest level. Chances he could be better over slightly shorter than this and hard to see him staking any claim in this years renewal. Best Price: 100/1

MADISON DU BERLAIS

Much improved chaser this season proving his class with a fine victory in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury. Proved that effort was no fluke with a solid display in the Levy Board Chase at Kempton seeing off former Gold Cup favourite Denman and emerged a player for the Gold Cup on that evidence. However he has never really got involved previously at Cheltenham and he was no match for Knowhere in last season’s Cotswold Chase despite having previously run well behind Denman in a Hennessy. The value in this horse for the Gold Cup has near on gone in my opinion and whilst I would accept he beat Denman partially on merit last time I would argue that 8/1 with the big three and 7/4 without is simply no value. He likes to race handily in his races and I just don’t think Cheltenham is the type of track to suit him. He hasn’t always been error free either and whilst David Pipe is in better form this and could have turned the corner, I like value in my betting and for a horse that is prone to a bad mistake now and again, 8/1 for a Gold Cup is not good value. Best Price: 8/1

MIKO DE BEAUCHENE

Model of consistency who was seen to his best winning the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup and the Welsh National last season. Jumping looked a bit suspect this year but bounced back with a fine effort on Saturday at Haydock and dug deep for his rider in 3rd. Stays well and is a decent handicapper who handles most grounds but hard to see him good enough to get involved in a Gold Cup and whilst he is likely to give his best he needs to improve considerably. Best Price: 150/1

MILAN DEUX MILLE

Former decent handicap chaser but lost his way lately and has plummeted down the weights. Another with absolutely not chance at this level. Best Price: 500/1

MY WILL

Ran a smart race when a staying on 5th in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Madison Du Berlais in November and it was a run you could take a lot of confidence from. Looks an absolute natural for the Grand National for me and it may be connections will protect his mark for that by running in this rather than one of the handicaps at the festival but the William Hill Chase or the Kim Muir would be totally ideal for him in my book. I don’t think he’ll be disgraced in the Gold Cup and I think he could easily be 6th or 7th or something along those lines. Best Price: 100/1

NEPTUNE COLLONGES

Improving chaser last season who was a courageous 3rd in the Gold Cup just getting run out of 2nd late on by Kauto Star. Looked sure to go close when tipping up at Leopardstown around Christmas time and looked good this afternoon when dotting up in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Always travelling smartly he jumped very well and quickened up impressively when asked to do so by Ruby Walsh. Handles most ground and whilst he probably wouldn’t mind it testing he is definitely a big improver this season and looks sure to throw it down to Kauto Star and Denman this year. On the current form he is the one of the Nicholls main trio I would most want to be on and Christian Williams should suit this improving grey gelding. He is a big player in my book. Best Price: 6/1

NOTRE PERE

Welsh National winner who showed an improved effort when chasing home Neptune Collonges in the Irish Hennessy today and plugged on well to hold a comfortable 2nd. Was off the bridle a long way out however and looks the type that will either need testing ground or a stiffer test of stamina to have any chance in a Gold Cup but to me looks a horse that could be interesting in a staying chase like the Bet Fred Gold Cup at the end of the season. Similar to Halcon Generlardais in that he should be staying on well but probably not good enough to get in the frame. Best Price: 25/1

NOZIC

Impressive in a handicap beating a likely non stayer in Tidal Bay but found out next time on really testing ground at Cheltenham against Joe Lively and Halcon Generlardais. A good handicapper on his day who can go well fresh but needs to improve to get involved here and has a lot to prove at this level. Best Price: 150/1

OUR VIC

Very talented on his day but better claims would come in the Ryanair, a race he won last season. Impressed with his attitude when beating Kauto Star at Aintree and a tough enough horse to always run his race. Seems to be more straightforward now and with Madison Du Berlais looking a better chance for the yard it would be no surprise to see him go for the Ryanair. Never jumping well on his return in this season’s King George and was pulled up when tailed off 3 out. Clearly better than that effort but lack of a run before the Gold Cup / Ryanair could stand against him. Hard to fancy. Best Price: 100/1

ROLL ALONG

One of my favourites and a tough good jumper. Yard has not been in the greatest of form this season but showed his ability when a strong finishing 2nd in last season’s Royal Sun Alliance Chase. Came back this season with an impressive win at Ascot and bypassed the Hennessy. Disappointing to see him look very one paced next time at Sandown when unable to ever really get a blow into the winner Barbers Shop and his jumping let him down a bit. No show at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase when weakening from 4 out and was eventually pulled up. Off 155 the handicapper still has him on a fair mark (4L winner off 149) and I would be more interested in him in something like the William Hill Chase. He is a horse I want on my side, but the yard form does somewhat worry me and I would be more inclined to look out for him in a handicap when the yard gets back in form. Hard to fancy at this level on current form. Best Price: 100/1

SNOOPY LOOPY

Tough and consistent chaser who owes his connections nothing after the season he has given them with some fine efforts in some decent races. However form has tailed off the last twice and whilst he will be fresher when he lines up for this, he looks a horse that is in the grip of the handicapper and outclassed at this level. He probably has had enough for the season as well and is not one I would consider. Best Price: 100/1

SNOWY MORNING

Modest 2nd to Neptune Collonges at Punchestown in April but fomr gone off the radar since and jumping fell apart at Punchestown behind Noland. Was beat when falling at Leopardstown in December behind Exotic Dancer and he looks to have completely lost his way. He is hard to have any confidence in at present. Best Price: 100/1

STAR DE MOHAISON

High class novice in 2006 but been plagued with injury since and return to racing was short lived last season. Has improved with each run this season and just got outdone on soft ground up the hill in a good dual with Mon Mome in December. Travelled like the best horse in the race in the Cotswold Chase but on very testing ground but failed to pick up from 2 out and was looked after having jumped the 2nd last. Has continued to keep impressing at home and with a dry spring expected, the ground could really come to suit him come March. He needs good ground to be seen to his very best and if the ground dried out to be on the slow side of good, or even better, good ground full stop then this horse is not out of it. He looks the type who could now bounce back to his former promise and the odds of 33/1 after two promising efforts over fences when not on his ideal ground are very encouraging. 7/1 each way without Denman, Kauto Star and Neptune Collonges also looks rather big and knowing he is a good jumper, stays the trip and enjoys it around Cheltenham he is one that should not be written off just yet. Best Price: 33/1

STATE OF PLAY

Winner of the Charlie Hall at the start of the season but that form is somewhat suspect and he was well beaten in handicap company behind Nozic and Tidal Bay next time out. This is a major step up in class from the handicappers he has been running in and has been found wanting over this trip in both his runs around here. Yards horses do go well when they are fresh but he faces a massive uphill task back against the best 3m chasers in the country. Best Price: 250/1

THE LISTENER

Former decent chaser but has really lost his way this season and fell at Leopardstown over Christmas. Showed a bit more this afternoon when ridden prominently for a long way but weakened once headed and folded tamely. Looks a shadow of the chaser he formally was and is best watched from now on. Best Price: 150/1

THYNE AGAIN

Fair form over shorter trips but well held today in the Irish Hennessy when trying 3m for the first time today and form needs to improve to have any sort of chance at this level. Very hard to fancy. Best Price: 200/1

WAR OF ATTRITION

2006 Gold Cup winner who has had his setbacks since but has been running well this season in some cracking races. Outpaced behind Noland over 2m 4f at Punchestown and then ran a solid race when 20L 2nd to Exotic Dancer over Christmas at Leopardstown and would have only been 3rd but for Neptune Collonges falling. Clearly not the same horse that won the Gold Cup 3 years ago but still capable of running a fair race. Likely to give his supporters a good run for their money at the right price but very hard to see him getting involved in the finish on what he has shown this season. Best Price: 40/1

Summary:

The ground can be dependant on the outcome for me and on faster ground I would rather Kauto Star to Neptune Collonges as the main threat to a back to his best Denman but there must be some doubt on whether the 2008 winner is as good as he was on the back of his disappointing display at Kempton.

So many of these have been in and out of form this season and Exotic Dancer, Barbers Shop and Halcon Generlardais are sure to always run their usual sound race.

War Of Attrition looks gone to me but you can take some encouragement of Exotic Dancer through his form. However all that does is boost the claims for Neptune Collonges who if there is ease in the ground will really make Kauto Star pull out all the stops up the hill.

For me though you can’t discount Denman, one race doesn’t necessarily mean a horse is gone and even his trainer is speaking as if he may not have been as fit as he thought and he was keen to suggest he will be a better horse when going left handed. He has drifted to a price where you can only see him as value, it really is a no brainer, if he comes back to his best or within 10lb of his best he will win, and at 5/1 he is one I would want to save on.

Madison Du Berlais was attractive around 14/1 and 12/1 after he crossed the line at Kempton, but now as short as 8s you have to ask one question, and that is do you believe Denman ran anywhere near his best ?, if you believe he was no where near his best then you have to accept that Madison Du Berlais was actually flattered and that 8/1 is far too short. On the other hand you could feel it was more a polished performance from Madison Du Berlais rather than a poor one by Denman, if that is the case 8/1 looks big. Either way this ship has sailed and left me well behind and on that ground I have to discount him. It’s the safe view in my opinion. However I must look for value and at 7/4 without the big three he is not actually value. As you are betting him to finish 4th. My point would be is 7/4 value against Exotic Dancer with overall better form who is around 7/2 and then you can bring in Notre Pere at 7/1, or even Barbers Shop at 7/1. It really is close, and for me I would be a layer of Madison Du Berlais in the without the big three market around the 7/4 mark.

I will be looking against Kauto Star in the win market and for me my main bet pretty much hinges on the ground. I want good ground as I feel STAR DE MOHAISON is a class horse on better ground and I feel he would have won at Cheltenham in a handicap had the ground been quicker. For me he travelled up like the best horse in the race last time and came there looking the winner but the ground saw him run out of it and looked after. He is a safe jumper and also stays well so for me on faster ground the ew value is with him. He was a seriously impressive winner of the Sun Alliance in 2006 and when he returned that winter he did look a leading player for the 2007 Gold Cup. He has shown enough to me to suggest that he hasn’t lost his ability and at 33/1 in the main market and 7/1 in the without the big three market he certainly offers value.

Advised Bets

STAR DE MOHAISON – 1.5PTS 33/1 EW

NEPTUNE COLLONGES – 0.75PTS EW 6/1

STAR DE MOHAISON – 1PT EW @ 7/1 (without the big three market)

MADISON DU BERLAIS – LAY TO WIN 10PTS @ 7/4 (without the big three market)

Well I hope you have enjoyed my Gold Cup Ante Post preview.

Good Luck

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The World Hurdle is regarded as the feature race of Day 3 of the Festival. Some top quality horses have won this race in years gone by and non more so than Inglis Drever who sadly wont be in the line-up bidding to win a fourth World Hurdle, I don’t think it’ll be quite the same without the gallant stayer thundering up the hill to the roars of many but we can only look forward to another and its down to something else to reign supreme over the distance.

I’m not really one for stats and usually stick to punting on the flat due to me being a time merchant, however a few key stats to adhere to in this event are:

No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years.

Horses who finished unplaced on their final start before the World Hurdle have an awful record in the race, and it’s worth following horses in form.

At this distance and class you can usually single out a handful of real contenders along with the bit-part chancers and historically this is a race I do well in. This year I have singled the race down to the following participants;

Kasbah Bliss
Punchestowns
Fair Along
Big Buck’s

The horses above are the four I think will be fighting it out at the business end of the race, and I’m now going to expand on what my choice will be and why, but first it’s time to go through the form of the horses shortlisted.

Kasbah Bliss
7-y-o gelding
Kahyasi (12.8f) — Marital Bliss (FR) (Double Bed (FR) (13.6f))
Notes: Most notably a gallant performance here last year behind Inglis Drever and some would argue he should really have won with a better jockey on board. The Kahyasi gelding has done nothing but improve over the summer and after hacking up in a handicap, he then won the Prix Gladiateur (G3) at Longchamp clocking a rating of (96) in the process before a fantastic effort when fourth beaten little over a length in the Prix Du Cadran (G1). Rested since Francois Doumen has hinted his gelding has added more muscle to his small but powerhouse frame and has grown into his shape a lot more, he believes he’s the finished article this time round, and there’s no Inglis Drever around to stop him.

Punchestowns
6-y-o gelding
Morespeed — History (FR) (Alesso (USA))

Notes: A well regarded individual from the Seven Barrows team who came to England with a lofty reputation and did the business at Sandown first time up over hurdles. Punchestowns was rumoured to be going chasing this year and his first run of the season was a pipe-opener for his intended career over larger obstacles, however he decided to hose in off 139 in what looked a competitive race on paper, not contempt with that he proceeded to destroy decent opposition en-route to an 11-length success in the Long Walk Hurdle (G1) at Ascot. Heavy ground can be blamed for his defeat to Big Buck’s last time, as can the pull of 8lbs Big Buck’s was getting from Nicky Henderson’s likeable chestnut. Punchestowns looks set to play a major role in the World Hurdle and with the ground likely to be better than the Heavy he contested the Cleeve Hurdle in, he can reverse form with Big Buck’s but whether he’ll be good enough to defeat Kasbah Bliss remains a mystery.

Fair Along
7-y-o gelding

Alkalde (GER) (11.0f) — Fairy Tango (FR) (Acatenango (GER) (11.0f))

Notes: A gallant and sound inmate from the Phillip Hobbs yard, Fair Along is the sort of horse you’d love to have as an owner, a small horse with a massive heart. Fair Along has won over 16f and he’s won over 25f (2M and 3M1F for those not clear on the furlong per mile ratio). A winner of top decent handicap prizes at the course he put a sterling effort in to finish third behind both Punchestowns and Big Buck’s when last seen in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The heavy ground quite possibly didn’t do him any favours that day and he held every chance turning for home. When headed he battled on bravely to hold third and there’s a chance he could be better suited to better ground come the Festival. His Cheltenham form reads: 132302113 and is very much a course specialist. He holds every chance of making the frame in the World Hurdle and is worth close consideration.

Big Buck’s
6-y-o gelding

Cadoudal (FR) (18.0f) — Buck´s (FR) (Le Glorieux (10.1f))
Notes: A French import and expensive purchase, Big Buck’s came over with a big reputation and a big future in the game. The workmanlike gelding has done well over fences for Paul Nicholls and arguably would have gone very close in the Hennessy Gold Cup but for falling when closing down. Big Buck’s did the business over hurdles next time and that run had to be a confidence boosting as his jumping is renowned to be a little chancy. Winning so well like he did Paul Nicholls gave his charge another chance over the smaller obstacles and made the most of an 8lb pull in the weights with Punchestowns to secure an impressive victory in the Cleeve Hurdle (G2). The son of Cadoudal also showed a liking for heavy ground and conditions couldn’t not be as favourable to him come Festival time and although he holds massive claims, he’d be one I wont back from the list above.

Verdict:

After going through the form and looking at the above I’m going to side with KASBAH BLISS who has the benefit of a break after three very pleasing efforts on the flat. A repeat of any of those last two efforts is good enough to see him win at Cheltenham and Francois Doumen is the master at producing his festival hopefuls to peak performance and he can follow in the footsteps of the legend Baracouda and secure another victory for France.

3pts win – Kasbah Bliss

Paddy Power are offering 5/2.

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